The world holds its breath! The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week," with multiple central banks set to announce interest rate decisions

December 08 - December 14 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all times are in Beijing time:

This week's key focus: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Powell's press conference. After the meeting, several Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively. Major meetings in China (Political Bureau meeting and Central Economic Work Conference may be held), as well as a series of economic data, including inflation, imports and exports, and social financing. "Google Chain Core" Broadcom and Oracle earnings reports. OpenAI will release GPT 5.2.

In addition, as a super central bank week, besides the Federal Reserve, central banks in Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, Peru, and others will announce interest rate decisions. "Federal Reserve Shadow Chairman" Hassett, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo, and others will give public speeches. Meanwhile, Microsoft CEO Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12 and meet with government officials. Doubao mobile phone may be released.

Economic Indicators

Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Powell's Monetary Policy Press Conference

At 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce the December interest rate decision, followed by Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference. Although this meeting lacks some key data due to the recent government shutdown, the market generally expects the Fed to lower interest rates by another 25 basis points following the previous two rate cuts.

Bloomberg Economics predicts that policymakers will follow the path indicated by the September dot plot to implement rate cuts, and the White House National Economic Council Director, "Federal Reserve Shadow Chairman" Hassett, has also publicly stated that there is a consensus for a "25 basis points" rate cut. Key data supporting this expectation includes: the September PCE report showing a slowdown in consumer spending in key areas and moderate service sector inflation, as well as JOLTS job vacancy data that may indicate a mild softening in labor demand.

The main highlights of this meeting will focus on three points: first, the outcome of the internal game within the FOMC, where more than half of the members leaned towards inaction before the silent period; the market will pay attention to whether Powell can "bridge the divide" and push for a rate cut with minimal opposition votes, demonstrating his leadership; second, Powell's statements at the press conference, considering the weak ADP employment and Beige Book, institutions generally expect his remarks to be slightly dovish; third, the latest quarterly economic forecasts released alongside the decision; if the Fed raises the GDP growth forecast for 2025-26 while maintaining the expectation of only one rate cut next year, it may be interpreted by the market as a hawkish signal.

This decision will not only directly affect the short-term trends of global risk assets, but the policy path signals conveyed will also provide key guidance for the market to assess the future pace of rate cuts and even the policy choices of other major central banks.

China's Major Economic Data: CPI, PPI, Imports and Exports, Social Financing, etc.

On December 8 (Monday), China will announce the November import and export data. The market currently has a relatively optimistic expectation, with Huatai Securities predicting that exports will rebound to around 3% year-on-year, mainly due to overseas restocking and the recovery of manufacturing prosperity;Zhejiang Merchants Securities expects exports to increase by 3.3% and imports to increase by 2.5%, pointing out that the expansion of non-U.S. markets and the China-U.S. agreement may respectively support export resilience and year-end imports.

On December 10 (Wednesday), China will release the November CPI and PPI data. Institutions generally expect the year-on-year increase in CPI to expand, with Huatai Securities predicting a rise in CPI year-on-year to 1%, up from the previous value of only 0.2%, mainly influenced by improvements in tail-end factors; Zhejiang Merchants Securities expects it to be 0.6%, up from the previous value of 0.2%. For PPI, it is expected that the year-on-year decline will continue to narrow.

In addition, it is expected that China will release November financial data this week, including new RMB loans, social financing scale, and key indicators such as money supply M1 and M2. The key signal lies in the change in M1 growth rate, and whether the "scissors gap" with M2 narrows, which will intuitively reflect the activity of corporate demand deposits and whether there are significant signs of "deposit migration" to investment or consumption areas.

Financial Events

In early to mid-December, the domestic market will welcome a policy super week, with the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference likely to be held.

Huatai Securities predicts that in the next two weeks, the domestic market will welcome a policy super week, with major meetings to be held. Guosheng Securities also stated that the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are often held in early to mid-December in previous years, setting the tone for the economic policy for the coming year. Huatai expects that the macro policies discussed in the meetings will focus on three main lines: first, emphasizing "starting well," second, focusing on "expanding domestic demand," and third, promoting innovation in technology, with possibly greater attention to price factors and nominal GDP growth.

Super Central Bank Week, with the Federal Reserve, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, and others to announce interest rate decisions.

During Super Central Bank Week, the Federal Reserve, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Ukraine, Turkey, and other central banks will announce interest rate decisions.

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, officials will speak intensively.

After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, officials will speak intensively. This Friday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, will host a fireside chat at an economic outlook seminar. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, will speak at the University of Cincinnati. 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Patrick Harker, will discuss the economic outlook.

It is expected that this Tuesday! OpenAI will "emergency advance" the release of GPT 5.2 to respond to Gemini 3.

In the face of fierce competition from Google and Anthropic, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced this week that the company has entered a "red alert" status and plans to advance the release of the new model GPT-5.2 as a response. According to The Verge, OpenAI's GPT-5.2 is planned to be released as early as December 9, significantly ahead of the originally scheduled late December plan. According to comparison images posted by netizens on social media, GPT-5.2 overwhelmingly surpasses Gemini 3 and Claude 4.5.

Microsoft CEO Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12 and meet with government officials.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is visiting India, continuing until December 12. He is expected to meet with government officials and speak at two AI-related conferences"Shadow Chairman of the Federal Reserve" Hassett attends CEO Council Summit

The CEO Council Summit of The Wall Street Journal is being held in Washington, continuing until December 9, with attendees including Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, who is seen as a candidate for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaks at an event in London

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda delivered a speech at the Financial Times Global Boardroom meeting held in London, which runs from December 9 to December 11.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt to attend hearing to defend budget including £26 billion tax increase

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunt previously announced the annual budget, which includes a £26 billion (approximately $34 billion) tax increase, attempting to balance controlling borrowing, alleviating cost of living pressures, and promoting economic growth to stabilize finances. He will attend a hearing of the Treasury Select Committee to defend the budget that includes the £26 billion tax increase.

Bridgewater's Dalio attends Abu Dhabi Finance Week

Abu Dhabi Finance Week will begin on December 8 and continue until December 11, with attendees including Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.

Asia-Pacific Aerospace Exhibition held in Hong Kong

The Asia-Pacific Aerospace Exhibition will be held in Hong Kong from December 9 to December 11, focusing on air traffic growth and the integration of new technologies.

Industry expects Doubao phone to be released on December 10

ByteDance's AI phone (Doubao phone), which is deeply integrated with the Doubao large model, is expected to be released on December 10 (source: brokerage minutes, unofficial news).

Financial Reports

Oracle, Broadcom

This week, semiconductor giant Broadcom and cloud service and database leader Oracle will successively release their latest quarterly financial reports. Both companies are seen as key windows for observing the investment climate in AI infrastructure, but market focus varies.

For Broadcom, as a core design partner for Google's AI chip (TPU), the market expects its performance to exceed consensus again. The view represented by Citigroup believes that the demand growth brought by Google opening TPU to external customers is the core driver, and investors will focus on specific growth data for its AI business (Citigroup expects AI sales to surge 147% in the new fiscal year) and guidance for future performance.

For Oracle, market concerns are focused on whether its cloud infrastructure business (OCI) can "take off" and how it will cope with the surge in capital expenditure pressure to meet large orders from clients like OpenAI. TD Cowen analysis points out that if its Texas "Star Gate" data center project in collaboration with OpenAI progresses smoothly, it will significantly alleviate capacity bottlenecks and drive OCI's accelerated growth; at the same time, if management can clearly articulate capital expenditure plans and commit to maintaining an investment-grade credit rating, it is expected to alleviate core concerns that have recently suppressed stock prices.

These two financial reports will not only affect their own stock prices but will also provide key validation for assessing the next phase of trends in the AI hardware supply chain (Broadcom) and the cloud service competition (Oracle)