"Bad data" is "good news"? The market's probability of a rate cut in January rises to 30%

华尔街见闻
2025.12.03 23:51

隔夜美国宏观数据表现糟糕，疲软的工业产能利用率、喜忧参半的服务业 ISM 数据以及糟糕的就业数据（包括自新冠疫情以来最大规模的制造业就业岗位流失和大量小型企业就业岗位流失（ADP）。 这提振了市场的鸽派情绪，12 月降息的可能性依旧 “板上钉钉”，而 1 月降息的可能性则升至 30% 以上。

隔夜美国宏观数据表现糟糕，疲软的工业产能利用率、喜忧参半的服务业 ISM 数据以及糟糕的就业数据（包括自新冠疫情以来最大规模的制造业就业岗位流失和大量小型企业就业岗位流失（ADP）。

这提振了市场的鸽派情绪，12 月降息的可能性依旧 “板上钉钉”，而 1 月降息的可能性则升至 30% 以上。

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