"American Black Friday Shopping Season" Observation: ChatGPT's shopping recommendation volume increased by 28%, with Amazon and Walmart accounting for nearly 70% combined

Wallstreetcn
2025.12.03 01:09
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This year's holiday shopping season data in the United States shows that generative AI, such as ChatGPT, has become a new engine driving e-commerce traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 28% in recommendations brought by it, and the user conversion rate for this type of traffic is higher. However, this emerging dividend shows a highly concentrated trend, with Amazon and Walmart accounting for nearly 70% of the traffic, further consolidating their market dominance, while small and medium-sized retailers have not generally benefited from it

During this year's holiday shopping season in the United States, generative artificial intelligence represented by ChatGPT is quietly changing consumer shopping habits, but the benefits of this emerging traffic channel do not seem to be shared by all merchants, instead further consolidating the market position of e-commerce giants.

The latest data from mobile app insight provider Apptopia shows that during the "Black Friday" shopping weekend from Thanksgiving to Sunday, the recommendation volume brought to retail mobile apps by ChatGPT increased by 28% year-on-year. This data indicates that more and more consumers are beginning to try using AI chatbots for shopping inspiration or to find deals.

However, the biggest beneficiaries of this growth trend are the leading players in the market. The report points out that Amazon's share of ChatGPT referral traffic has significantly increased from 40.5% last year to 54%. Meanwhile, Walmart's share also soared from 2.7% to 14.9%, with the two giants collectively accounting for nearly 70% of the traffic.

Data from other institutions also confirms the increasing influence of AI on e-commerce. According to a report released by Adobe, on "Black Friday" alone, traffic to U.S. retail websites from artificial intelligence surged by 805% year-on-year, demonstrating that AI is playing an increasingly important role in the broader retail sector.

Giants Monopoly on New AI Traffic, Amazon and Walmart Become the Biggest Winners

Data shows that the emerging AI traffic channels have not brought new opportunities for small and medium-sized retailers, but rather reinforced the market moats of e-commerce giants like Amazon and Walmart. AI seems to prefer directing users to these already dominant platforms.

Apptopia's report details this trend. During this shopping season, Amazon's share of ChatGPT referral traffic climbed to 54%, a significant increase from 40.5% in 2024.

Walmart's performance is even more remarkable, with its share jumping from a negligible 2.7% last year to 14.9% this year. This means that when consumers seek shopping advice from ChatGPT, they are most often directed to these two retail giants.

Broader AI Shopping Trends: Traffic and Conversion Rates Both Soar

Apptopia is not the only institution focusing on the impact of AI on the holiday shopping season. Adobe analyzed the traffic brought to retail websites by AI tools from a broader perspective, revealing even more astonishing data and highlighting the high value of this traffic.

Adobe's report states that on "Black Friday," AI traffic to U.S. retail websites (measured by the number of shoppers clicking links) increased by 805% year-on-year; on "Cyber Monday," this traffic also surged by 670%. From the entire holiday shopping season so far (November 1 to December 1), overall AI traffic has grown by 760%.

More importantly, Adobe found that users entering retail websites through AI chatbots exhibited a higher purchase intent, with their likelihood of completing a purchase being 38% higher than that of regular users. This finding is significant for retailers and investors, as it indicates that traffic from AI is not only substantial in volume but also has a higher conversion rate, possessing considerable commercial value. **

AI Recommended Traffic Growth, But Overall Scale Remains Small

Although the role of AI chatbots in shopping recommendations is becoming increasingly prominent, their current absolute share in the overall recommendation traffic market remains negligible.

According to an analysis by Apptopia, the behavior of consumers using ChatGPT to find e-commerce deals during "Black Friday" has seen significant growth, but it is still a niche choice.

Data shows that during last year's "Black Friday" shopping season, the recommendation conversation volume of ChatGPT for e-commerce applications accounted for only 0.64% of its total conversation volume. This year, this proportion has only moderately increased to 0.82%.

Apptopia defines "recommendation conversations" as instances where users opened a retailer's mobile application within 30 seconds after using ChatGPT. The company notes that its data is sourced from a sample group in the United States and is an estimate based on consumer behavior observations

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