The lineup is full, Labubu's first Thanksgiving parade! POP MART joins the ranks of top global IPs

During the recently concluded Thanksgiving period, POP MART's IP Labubu made its debut at the 99th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, replacing the classic character Popeye as the focal point of the event, sparking heated discussions on social media.

According to The New York Times, this iconic event carries profound cultural implications: the classic character Popeye was absent from this year's parade, replaced by a new generation of pop symbols from Asia. Labubu's appearance further proves its rise on a global scale, as these dolls have become collectibles, accessories for bags and backpacks, and beloved internet memes for both children and adults, while also exemplifying the significant success of China's cultural export efforts.

This phenomenal market performance is seen as a leading indicator of the company's earnings realization. On November 27, 2025, Bank of America Securities reiterated its "Buy" rating on POP MART, maintaining a target price of HKD 400. With Labubu sweeping through New York, Bank of America believes that the U.S. market has established itself as a new growth engine for POP MART.

In the report, analysts pointed out that although the stock has retraced 35% from its recent highs, its fundamentals remain strong, especially as the IP operational capabilities in overseas markets are accelerating a qualitative change, providing investors with an attractive "wrongly killed" buying opportunity.

Starting from this phenomenon, the analyst team refuted doubts about the unpredictability of the IP business model through field research and financial modeling, believing that the company's platform-based operational capabilities are sufficient to support long-term profit growth.

A New Generation of IP Replacing Tradition

At this year's Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, POP MART collaborated with the Macy's studio to launch a themed float called "Friendsgiving in Pop City."

This appearance was not only a commercial promotion but also a cultural symbol transition. Parade executive producer Will Kost stated that the parade incorporated many new elements that are in line with the times, replacing elements from the childhood memories of the previous generation. The Popeye, which first appeared in 1939, remained in a warehouse in New Jersey this year, while Labubu paraded through the west side of Central Park amidst cheers.

Prior to this, Labubu had already launched an intensive preheating campaign in New York: appearing at the top of the Empire State Building, cruising the streets in an SUV, and even cheering for the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks at NBA games According to The New York Times, celebrities including Rihanna, Dua Lipa, and David Beckham have been spotted wearing the brand's mini figurines, while tennis star Naomi Osaka's custom diamond-studded Labubu became the center of attention at this year's US Open.

Emily Brough, the head of Bubble Mart's US licensing, stated that the company has long set its sights on New York, a global center of art and culture.

Non-Random Platform-Based Operations

In response to market concerns about reliance on a single IP and the randomness of success, Bank of America Securities refuted these claims in a report. Analysts pointed out that the popularity of Labubu is not the "random success" that bears believe, but rather the result of sustained and thorough IP operations.

Currently, Bubble Mart's IP operations in the United States have been fully upgraded. In addition to the Thanksgiving parade, the company has launched a series of strategic offline initiatives since the fourth quarter of 2025, including opening Skullpanda pop-up stores and collaborating with the popular series "Wednesday." This comprehensive exposure strategy validates the company's operational capabilities in overseas markets.

Data shows that Bubble Mart's success has platform characteristics. As of the first half of 2025, Labubu accounted for about 35% of total contributions, while other IPs such as Skullpanda, Dimoo, and Molly had already demonstrated strong popularity prior to this. Bank of America believes that this proactive and successful IP operation capability is the company's core competitiveness, effectively alleviating market concerns about growth momentum in 2026.

Valuation Mispricing and Performance Expectations

From a financial perspective, Bank of America's model shows that Bubble Mart will maintain astonishing profitability in the coming years. For 2025, various activities are expected to drive revenue to RMB 37.082 billion, with adjusted net profit expected to be RMB 13.058 billion. Looking ahead to 2026, revenue is expected to further grow to RMB 52.135 billion, with adjusted net profit likely to exceed RMB 18.5 billion, and earnings per share reaching HKD 13.90.

Based on this, Bank of America has set a target price of HKD 400 using a valuation logic that weights the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and discounted cash flow (DCF) method equally at 50%. Among them, a 30 times P/E for 2026 is given, which is consistent with its historical average, and the implied PEG (price-to-earnings growth ratio) is less than 1, below the industry average, indicating extremely high cost-effectiveness.

Analysts emphasize that the recent decline in stock price is mainly due to fluctuations in market sentiment, rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. Data shows that short interest increased after the third quarter of 2025, while long interest remained flat.

However, with funds flowing back into the consumer sector and the implementation of new policies to stimulate consumption in China, market sentiment is expected to recover. At the current level of only 15 times forward P/E, Bubble Mart presents a classic value return opportunity (Netizens created AI videos for entertainment purposes only)