Tech giants are frantically issuing bonds, is OpenAI next?

The arms race in artificial intelligence is pushing capital consumption to the extreme, and even industry leader OpenAI is facing astonishing financial pressure.

According to news from the Chase Wind Trading Desk, HSBC's latest research report on November 24 shows that after signing expensive computing power contracts with Microsoft and Amazon recently, OpenAI will face a staggering funding gap of up to $207 billion by 2030. This may force it to follow the same path as other tech giants—issuing bonds to fund the costly AI future.

If it goes down the path of issuing bonds, this will not only affect OpenAI's own valuation and future but also impact the risk exposure of the entire AI industry chain, including its major shareholders Microsoft, SoftBank, and chip supplier NVIDIA.

A Staggering Funding Gap of $207 Billion

The report titled "OpenAI: Reassessing Commitments and Cash Flow" provides a detailed analysis of OpenAI's financial predicament. Analysts predict that from the second half of 2025 to 2030, OpenAI will need to pay a cumulative $792 billion in data center rent; over the next eight years, its total computing costs are expected to reach $1.4 trillion, which is largely consistent with the plans of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

The financial model in the report shows that although OpenAI's annual revenue is expected to grow to $213.6 billion by 2030, its cloud infrastructure leasing costs will reach $206.8 billion, nearly consuming all its revenue. After accounting for free cash flow, NVIDIA's cash injection, and potential gains from selling AMD stocks, the model indicates that by 2030, OpenAI will still face a funding gap of $207 billion.

To visually demonstrate this financial pressure, the report's profit and loss statement predicts that in the coming years, OpenAI's total costs for cloud infrastructure will consistently exceed its total revenue, only approaching break-even by 2030 (with a cost-to-revenue ratio of 96.8%).

Escalation of the Computing Power Arms Race

OpenAI's enormous funding needs stem from an escalating arms race for AI computing power. The report points out that in the past four weeks, OpenAI has finalized two massive deals: one is purchasing $250 billion worth of incremental computing power from its main partner Microsoft, and the other is signing a seven-year, $38 billion cloud computing contract with Amazon.

This brings OpenAI's total committed data center capacity to approximately 36 gigawatts (GW). Notably, OpenAI is not alone in this. Its main competitor, Anthropic, has also announced plans for AI infrastructure investments and chip procurement worth tens of billions of dollars. This industry-wide massive investment not only reflects the extreme confidence of leading model companies in the commercialization prospects of their products but also increases investors' doubts about investment returns.

Where Will the Money Come From? Issuing Bonds May Become Inevitable

Faced with such a huge funding gap, OpenAI must seek solutions. The report lists five possible options:

1. Higher Revenue: For example, increasing the proportion of paying users from 10% to 20% could generate an additional $194 billion in revenue between 2026 and 2030.

2. More Efficient Computing Power Utilization: Reducing the computational cost per query through model optimization.

3. Existing Shareholder Capital Increase: Major shareholders such as Microsoft (currently holding about 27%) and SoftBank (about 11%) may inject new equity capital.

4. Adjusting Computing Power Commitments: Negotiating with cloud service providers to adjust the pace of future computing power deployment based on actual demand.

5. External Debt Financing: This is the most noteworthy path.

The report specifically points out that although issuing bonds is challenging in the current market environment, other tech giants have already set a precedent for bond issuance related to AI capital expenditures. Recent cases include:

• Amazon: Issued bonds worth $15 billion in November 2025.

• Meta: Issued $30 billion in unsecured senior notes in October 2025.

• Alphabet: Issued bonds worth $25 billion in November 2025.

• Oracle: Issued $18 billion in high-rated bonds in September 2025.

This trend indicates that debt financing is becoming an important tool for tech giants in the capital-intensive AI race. If OpenAI is to bridge its significant funding gap, it will likely have to consider this option.

Betting on the AI Super Cycle

What justifies such astonishing investment and financial risk? HSBC believes that the market is witnessing an AI-driven "megacycle." Unlike the internet bubble, generative AI has demonstrated immense productivity application potential in a very short time.

The report cites academic research indicating that the productivity boost from AI is already becoming apparent. For example, a report from the St. Louis Federal Reserve suggests that since the release of ChatGPT, generative AI may have increased U.S. labor productivity by as much as 1.3%. With a global GDP exceeding $110 trillion, even a few basis points of productivity growth driven by AI could create enough economic value to make the currently seemingly "irrational" trillion-dollar capital expenditures worthwhile.

For investors, this means that while AI companies face significant cash flow pressures in the short term, their long-term growth potential is equally immeasurable. The success or failure of OpenAI will directly impact the future performance of its partners Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, AMD and shareholder SoftBank.

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