U.S. stock futures continue to rise, European stocks are up, gold is down 0.2%, and Bitcoin has recorded its worst monthly performance in three years

On Monday, the 24th, U.S. stocks continued their rebound, with traders increasing bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as S&P 500 futures rose by 0.5%.

New York Fed President Williams stated last Friday that a rate cut is still possible in the near term, injecting optimism into the market. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose by 0.8%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, after experiencing continuous selling, recorded its worst monthly performance since 2022, continuing its weak trend on Monday. Indonesia's benchmark stock index briefly rose by 1%, reaching a historic high of 8499.716 points.

Market focus has shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy decision in December, with traders currently pricing in a probability of a rate cut exceeding 60%, a significant rebound from the previous level of less than 30%.

• S&P 500 futures rose by 0.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose by 0.8%.
• South Korea's Seoul Composite Index closed down 0.2%, at 3846.06 points.
• Indonesia's benchmark stock index briefly rose by 1%, reaching a historic high of 8499.716 points.
• The U.S. Dollar Index remained largely unchanged.
• The Japanese Yen fell by 0.2%, to 156.68 USD.
• Bitcoin fell by 1.3%, trading at 86807.01 USD.
• Spot gold fell by 0.2%, trading at 4055.88 USD per ounce.
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 0.2%, trading at 58.19 USD per barrel.

Fed Officials' Statements Boost Rate Cut Expectations

New York Fed President Williams stated last Friday that a rate cut is still possible in the near term due to increased downside risks to employment and alleviated upside risks to inflation. Williams is seen as a close ally of Fed Chair Powell, and his remarks pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower. However, there remains a divide among Fed officials on whether to cut rates, with Boston Fed President Collins stating that no decision has been made regarding policy action. Federal funds futures pricing shows that traders currently believe the probability of a rate cut in December exceeds 60%, having previously dipped below 30%.

Goldman Sachs expects a rate cut next month, followed by two more cuts in March and June of next year, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.25%. JPMorgan strategist Fabio Bassi and others hold a different view, believing that the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain rates at the December meeting due to "limited new data, with the October non-farm and November employment reports being released after the meeting." The bank expects a 25 basis point cut in January and April next year.

Spot gold fell by 0.2%, trading at 4055.88 USD per ounce.

Bitcoin Records Worst Monthly Performance Since 2022

Bitcoin continued its weak trend on Monday, following continuous selling that is set to result in its worst monthly performance since 2022. After a brief rebound of over 4% on Sunday, the largest cryptocurrency dipped slightly on Monday, trading around 86800 USD. Traders are watching 85200 USD as a key support level

Jun Bei Liu, co-founder of Ten Cap, stated in a media interview, "The recent sell-off and volatility are partly related to other volatile assets or highly leveraged assets like Bitcoin." Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a surge in volatility, exacerbating concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty and fund outflows from exchange-traded funds.

European Fiscal Pressure Becomes a Focus

The euro and pound remained stable, while European fiscal pressure became the market's focus. The French National Assembly rejected part of the 2026 budget early Saturday morning, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's plans to address the massive deficit.

The UK government announced over the weekend that it would freeze railway fares in Wednesday's budget proposal, one of several affordability measures taken by Chancellor Rachel Reeves to alleviate political pressure. Reeves needs to stabilize the UK's public finances through tax increases and spending restrictions of up to £25 billion. Italy, on the other hand, received its first rating upgrade from Moody's in 23 years, marking a victory for Prime Minister Meloni and ending an era in which the country hovered on the brink of junk status