Nomura Securities believes that even without a formal &#34;Mar-a-Lago Agreement,&#34; the market may be betting on a depreciation of the dollar in advance.
Nomura Securities found that discussions about the risks of the U.S.-led &#34;Mar-a-Lago Agreement&#34; have garnered widespread attention at the recent central bankers' seminar. Nomura Securities believes that the likelihood of this agreement being reached in the coming months is low, mainly due to the following reasons:
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Due to the lack of political unity among major countries, the recovery of most major economies is still in its infancy or is slowing down (with the exception of Japan).
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The historical lessons from Japan's &#34;lost three decades.&#34;
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Trump and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have not made any significant new moves to promote dollar depreciation in recent months.
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Trump may be highly focused on advancing his tariff policies and may attempt to facilitate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months.
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Nevertheless, the ongoing discussions about such agreements and even early positioning in the market may drive the dollar to continue weakening. Since the beginning of this year, the dollar index has fallen from a peak of around 110 to the latest 104.28, a decline of about 5.2% year-to-date.
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According to Nomura Securities' analysis, the market often reacts in advance before significant policy agreements are reached. For example, prior to the &#34;Plaza Accord&#34; on September 22, 1985, the dollar began to depreciate significantly seven months earlier, with the dollar index falling by about 15%. In the 12 months following the signing of the agreement, the dollar index further declined by 24%. At that time, central banks were also major sellers of the dollar, with the German central bank actively selling dollars from February to March 1985.
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At the same time, Nomura Securities analysts pointed out that expectations for dollar depreciation may stem from multiple factors:
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Foreign investors are concerned that dollar depreciation will lead to lower returns on overseas investments, which may drive more foreign exchange hedging or selling of U.S. assets.
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Doubts about the U.S. economic cycle, especially the market's sensitive reaction to hard data (such as non-farm payrolls), may increase the downside risks for the dollar and U.S. stock markets.
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Changes in market sentiment may guide capital outflows, especially driven by the theme of asset reallocation, as foreign capital may seek safer investment channels.
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Nomura Securities emphasizes that changes in market sentiment may guide capital outflows, especially driven by the theme of asset reallocation, as foreign capital may seek safer investment channels

Nomura Securities pointed out that although the likelihood of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" being reached in the coming months is low, the ongoing discussions and even preemptive arrangements for such agreements in the market may drive the US dollar to continue weakening. Historical experience shows that the market often reacts in advance before major policy agreements are reached. For example, prior to the "Plaza Accord," the US dollar began to depreciate significantly seven months in advance, with the dollar index falling by about 15%

- Nomura Securities suggests that the market may be preemptively betting on a depreciation of the dollar, even without a formal "Mar-a-Lago Agreement."  
- The firm notes that discussions about the risks of a U.S.-led agreement have gained significant attention, but the likelihood of such an agreement being reached in the coming months is low due to a lack of political unity among major countries.  
- The dollar index has already fallen approximately 5.2% this year, reflecting market reactions to potential policy changes and concerns over the U.S. economic cycle.