Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | International gold prices hit new highs! The price of solid gold jewelry rises with the tide. Institutions: There is still room for long-term growth (with concept stocks)

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on January 22, the main contract for Shanghai gold rose to 645 yuan/gram, once again setting a new historical high. International gold prices also reached a two-month high, rising to USD 2,758/ounce by the afternoon of the 22nd. The prices of pure gold jewelry from major gold brands have also surged, with Chow Tai Fook's gold price on the 22nd at 833 yuan/gram. Other brands like Lao Feng Xiang, Saturday Fortune, and Chow Sang Sang also saw their pure gold prices exceed 830 yuan/gram, up from around 820 yuan/gram on the 21st, an increase of 10 yuan/gram in just one day.

In terms of news, Trump stated that he is considering imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, saying, "I think we will do this on February 1." This statement quickly heightened market risk aversion, leading to a significant rise in gold prices.

Related analysis indicates that the main reasons for the rise in gold include the decline in U.S. CPI data, an increase in M2 money supply, uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, technical support, and global economic uncertainty. Standard Chartered Bank stated that gold will be influenced by Trump's policies in the short term, but the long-term trend will depend on the global economic situation and risk aversion demand.

Additionally, with the Year of the Snake approaching, the gold consumption market is entering a sales peak, with many consumers stopping by to shop at various gold stores. On January 22, due to the rise in international gold prices, domestic gold prices also increased accordingly, with major domestic brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang nearing 833 yuan/gram.

To attract consumers, many gold stores have launched zodiac-themed decorations for the Year of the Snake, including a series of products such as snake-shaped bracelets, necklaces, and rings. Among them, new snake-themed products like the "Staff Snake Body Gold Pendant," "Spirit Snake Gold Bracelet," and "Snake Pattern Fortune Gold Pendant" on Chow Tai Fook's official website are selling well, with gold priced at 92% of the market price and other products at 60% off; Lao Feng Xiang has also offered discounts of 50 yuan per gram and 20% off for embedded products, with several products from its "SHE Snake Series" and "Little Fortune Snake" also selling well.

Banks have recently been seizing the opportunity to launch gold-related products, such as gold lucky money, Year of the Snake gold bars, and gold medals, which are selling very well as auspicious gift products. Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, have recently launched lucky money products like gold for the New Year and zodiac gold. These gold lucky money products are mostly made of 999.9 gold, weighing around 1g to 2g, with prices ranging from hundreds to thousands of yuan, and many products have already shown temporary out-of-stock status due to high sales before the Spring Festival, with expected restocking at a later date.

Since the beginning of 2025, international gold investment enthusiasm has risen, with gold prices surpassing USD 2,700/ounce. Experts generally believe that gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2025, potentially breaking the historical high of USD 3,000/ounce.

Data released by the People's Bank of China shows that by the end of December 2024, China's gold reserves reached USD 191.34 billion, totaling 73.29 million ounces, marking the second consecutive month of increased gold reserves.

Central banks in other countries are also increasing their gold reserves, a trend expected to continue in 2025 to hedge against economic fluctuations and currency depreciation risks Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that looking ahead to 2025 for non-ferrous metals, the logic for rising gold prices remains unchanged, with the dual main lines of "interest rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" expected to continue catalyzing. On the other hand, under the backdrop of protectionism and great power competition, central banks increasing reserves provide strong bottom support for gold prices. In the short term, the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 and the inflation expectation trades driven by tariff policies after Trump's return to power may dominate gold price trends. In the long term, under the backdrop of dual easing of U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, dollar credit contraction, and de-dollarization, gold is expected to still have room for long-term price increases.

Related Concept Stocks:

Zijin Mining (02899): On January 22, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that it maintains an "overweight" rating on Zijin Mining (02899), with a target price set at HKD 22.9. The report mentioned that Zijin expects a 16% year-on-year increase in gold production and a 7.5% year-on-year increase in copper production in 2025. Compared to the company's previous copper production target, the new guidance is a decrease of 5.7%. The report stated that Zijin Mining's preliminary net profit for the 2024 fiscal year is approximately RMB 32 billion, which is 51.5% higher than the bank's forecast. After deducting one-time expenses, the core net profit is RMB 31.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.3%. Given that last year's gold and copper production basically met the bank's expectations, the profit exceeding expectations is attributed to better cost control and higher silver profitability.

Lingbao Gold (03330): Recently announced that the group expects (1) revenue for the year ending December 31, 2024, to be between approximately RMB 11.587 billion and RMB 11.903 billion, an increase of approximately 10% to 13% compared to revenue of RMB 10.534 billion for the year ending December 31, 2023; and (2) net profit for the year ending December 31, 2024, to be between approximately RMB 617 million and RMB 706 million, an increase of approximately 110% to 140% compared to net profit of RMB 294 million for the year ending December 31, 2023.

Laopu Gold (06181): In late January, Guozheng International released a research report stating that Laopu Gold (06181) achieved strong performance growth in the first half of 2024. Although the industry faced some pressure in the second half of the year due to the rapid rise in gold prices, the bank believes that Laopu's high-end positioning means its performance is less affected by gold price fluctuations, and it still expects overall rapid growth this year.

China Gold International (02099): China Gold International released its annual production guidance for 2025 as follows: Jiamar Mine: expected copper production of approximately 139 million to 148 million pounds (approximately 63,000 to 67,000 tons), gold production of approximately 69,124 to 73,947 ounces (approximately 2.15 to 2.3 tons); Changshanhao Mine: expected gold production of approximately 77,162 to 83,592 ounces (approximately 2.4 to 2.6 tons). The company reported that the earthquake that occurred on January 7, 2025, in Dingri County, Shigatse City, Tibet Autonomous Region, did not affect the Jiamar Mine located 500 kilometers away in Mozhugongka County. According to safety operating regulations, preventive safety measures were immediately taken in all mining areas of the Jiamar Mine