Overnight U.S. Stocks | Three Major Indices Rise, Golden Dragon Index Accumulates Approximately 6% Increase This Week

According to Zhitong Finance, on Friday, the three major indices rose. Next Monday (January 20, 2025) is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the U.S. stock market will be closed. Additionally, next Monday is also the inauguration day of the elected President Trump. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a total of 3.69%, the S&P 500 index rose 2.91%, both marking the largest weekly gains since the week of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. The Nasdaq rose 2.45%, recording its best weekly performance since early December.

【U.S. Stocks】 As of the close, the Dow rose 334.70 points, an increase of 0.78%, closing at 43,487.83 points; the Nasdaq rose 291.91 points, an increase of 1.51%, closing at 19,630.20 points; the S&P 500 index rose 59.32 points, an increase of 1.00%, closing at 5,996.66 points. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index preliminarily closed up 3.1%, with a cumulative increase of about 6% this week. JD.com (JD.US) rose 10%, Pinduoduo (PDD.US) rose 5.3%, and Nio (NIO.US) rose 4.6%. Tesla (TSLA.US) and Nvidia (NVDA.US) both rose over 3%. Intel (INTC.US) surged over 9%.

【European Stocks】 The German DAX 30 index rose 267.24 points, an increase of 1.30%, closing at 20,900.88 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 113.39 points, an increase of 1.35%, closing at 8,505.29 points; the French CAC 40 index rose 75.01 points, an increase of 0.98%, closing at 7,709.75 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 40.72 points, an increase of 0.80%, closing at 5,147.65 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 index rose 67.40 points, an increase of 0.57%, closing at 11,908.00 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose 445.21 points, an increase of 1.24%, closing at 36,265.00 points.

【Asia-Pacific Stock Markets】 The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.31%, the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia rose 0.66%, and the KOSPI index in South Korea fell 0.16%.

【Cryptocurrency】 Bitcoin rose over 4%, trading at $104,337.9. With only a few days until the inauguration of Trump, who supports cryptocurrency, Bitcoin seems to be back on track to reach record highs. Since last Sunday, Bitcoin has risen about 12%, poised to achieve the largest weekly gain since the election week in November. Bitcoin reached a record high of $108,315 last December but has fallen in three of the past four weeks. Zahir Abutaleb, founder of the crypto fund Split Capital, stated, "The market is currently digesting the factors of Trump's inauguration and his optimistic stance on cryptocurrency." According to foreign media reports, Trump, who was previously skeptical of cryptocurrency, plans to issue an executive order to elevate cryptocurrency as a policy priority and give industry insiders a voice in his administration.

【Gold】 COMEX gold futures closed down 0.4%, trading at $2,740 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 0.83% this week; COMEX silver futures closed down 2.14%, trading at $31.045 per ounce, with a cumulative decrease of 0.81% this week [Crude Oil] WTI crude oil futures for February delivery fell 1% to $77.88 per barrel; the settlement price for March Brent crude oil decreased by 0.6% to $80.79 per barrel.

[Metals] LME copper fell 0.4% to $9,190 per ton; LME aluminum rose 1.8% to $2,684.5 per ton; LME nickel increased by 0.8% to $16,097 per ton; LME zinc rose 2.4% to $2,942 per ton; LME tin increased by 0.7% to $29,775 per ton; LME lead fell 0.2% to $1,967 per ton.

[Macroeconomic News]

Federal Reserve's Harker: We can be very patient in considering future rate cuts. In the recent Federal Reserve meeting, Cleveland Fed President Harker voted against the decision to cut rates. In an interview, she stated, "We still face inflation issues. While we have made remarkable progress, we need to continue this work." Regarding last month's rate cut, she added, "For me, the discussion in December was really about whether you need to act now or if you can be more patient and wait." In September of last year, Harker voted with Powell in favor of a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut. She stated, "At that time, my expectation was that a 75 basis point cut this year was appropriate." Subsequently, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in November. However, by December, another rate cut did not work for her. She said, "The data has all strengthened." The argument that the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and therefore the Fed needs to follow up with rate cuts, is, in Harker's view, self-defeating. She said, "In my view, just because something has been digested by the market is not enough reason to do it." When discussing further rate cuts, Harker stated, "We can be very patient." She now believes that decades from now, the ultra-low rates of the 2010s will look more like an exception than the norm. Therefore, Harker considers the current rates to be only moderately restrictive. She believes that the recent tightening of financial conditions and the rise in long-term bond yields overall help the Federal Reserve complete its task of combating inflation.

After inflation data and dovish comments, futures traders adjust Treasury bets. Following moderate inflation data and a dovish statement from a Federal Reserve official, futures traders are adjusting their bets in the Treasury market. Over the past two days, changes in open interest have occurred, consistent with traders exiting short positions in two-year Treasuries and establishing new long positions in longer-dated Treasury contracts, particularly in five-year Treasuries. This shift occurred after the consumer price inflation data released on Wednesday and comments made the following day by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The data released on Wednesday showed that the core price increase in December was below economists' expectations; Waller indicated that if this trend continues, officials may cut rates again by mid-year. Morgan Stanley's interest rate strategists suggested later on Thursday that, given the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, long positions could be established in that maturity Treasury, although this remains a minority view. The swap market expects only a 6 basis point cut in March, indicating about a 25% chance of a 25 basis point cut Stephanie Laroque, Head of Fixed Income Strategies at Invesco, stated: "We do not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in March, but we do believe it is more of a tail risk. It feels like the Federal Reserve does not need to react so urgently."

TikTok CEO: Will do everything possible to ensure the continued prosperity of the TikTok platform. TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew stated in a video speech on TikTok on the 17th that he will do everything possible to ensure the future prosperity of the TikTok platform. Earlier that day, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the law prohibiting TikTok from operating unless sold is not unconstitutional. This means the Supreme Court allows the law to take effect as originally planned on the 19th. In response, Shou Zi Chew said that former President Trump "promised to work with us to find a solution that allows TikTok to operate in the U.S.," and he thanked Trump on behalf of all employees and every user of the company. Shou Zi Chew stated that people can create communities on TikTok, discover new hobbies, and express themselves, with over 7 million American businesses using it to make a living and acquire customers. He also thanked American users for bringing rich content to TikTok. Trump stated on social media that the Supreme Court's ruling was expected, but he would make a decision on TikTok in the near future, saying, "I need time to review the situation." According to several U.S. media reports on the 16th, outgoing President Biden will not enforce the TikTok law prohibiting operation unless sold, and its fate will be decided by the Trump administration.

International Monetary Fund raises global economic growth forecast. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a slightly optimistic view of the global economic outlook and has also raised its forecast for the U.S. economy. In the latest World Economic Outlook released today, the IMF expects the global economy to grow at a "stable but not very bright pace" of 3.3% this year, and to grow again at 3.3% by 2026. The new outlook for 2025 is 0.1 percentage points higher than the 3.2% predicted in the October report. The IMF also expects that, driven by strong domestic demand, the U.S. economy will grow by 2.7% this year, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the October forecast. However, IMF officials warned that if President-elect Trump follows through on his threat to impose broad tariffs on all U.S. imports from countries like Canada and Mexico, the U.S. could face higher inflation. IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated: "Raising tariffs or restricting immigration will act like a negative supply shock, reducing output and increasing price pressures."

【Individual Stock News】

U.S. Federal Trade Commission: Microsoft's (MSFT.US) partnership with OpenAI raises antitrust concerns. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) released a research report on the partnerships between large tech companies and the artificial intelligence (AI) industry. The FTC reviewed the collaborations between large tech companies and AI companies, stating that Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI exacerbates antitrust concerns The FTC has questioned significant tech AI investments in 2024.

Goldman Sachs (GS.US) CEO's compensation increased by 26% to $39 million, will lead for another five years. According to a document, Goldman Sachs raised its CEO David Solomon's compensation by 26% last year to $39 million, and the board also arranged an $80 million retention bonus, indicating that Solomon will lead for another five years. 55-year-old John Waldron is the President and Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Goldman Sachs, and he also received an $80 million restricted stock retention bonus, which will be paid out over five years. He is widely regarded as Solomon's successor. The company stated in the document that the latest bonus is part of the Goldman Sachs board's efforts to retain the CEO and COO as part of the senior leadership team.

The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission identifies Amazon (AMZN.US) as a distributor of certain defective products and orders it to address the issues. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) stated that it has unanimously issued a final order requiring Amazon to take measures to notify buyers and the public about hazardous products identified by the agency as distributors. Amazon must issue a notification on the same day the CPSC publishes a recall notice and comply with other directives. For the public, the company must post recall announcements on its website. For buyers, Amazon must directly notify them via email and provide relevant information in the sections where they have placed orders. The order takes effect from January 26. The CPSC unanimously voted last July to determine that Amazon is a "distributor" of certain defective or non-compliant products with federal consumer product safety standards, thus legally responsible for the recall of these products. Over 400,000 products are subject to this order, including defective carbon monoxide detectors, hair dryers without shock protection, and children's pajamas that violate federal flammability standards.

【Major Ratings】

Goldman Sachs: Raises TSMC's (TSM.US) target price to $259, with long-term growth prospects further strengthened by AI advantages.

Morgan Stanley: Assigns Tesla (TSLA.US) a stock rating of "Overweight," with a target price of $430