Goldman Sachs details Tesla FSD: Robotaxi expected to start operations in H2 2026, with revenue of approximately $115 million in 2027

Elon Musk's ambition for autonomous driving is significant, but reality is often more complex than he imagines.

On the 15th, Goldman Sachs' Mark Delaney research team released a report on Tesla's FSD and its Robotaxi. Goldman Sachs expects that Tesla's Robotaxi business will begin commercial operations in the second half of 2026 and achieve approximately $115 million in revenue by 2027.

The latest V13 version of Tesla's FSD system has significantly improved performance. It can operate without human intervention in 97% of driving scenarios, with a critical intervention distance reaching 400-450 miles.

However, this achievement still has a considerable gap from true "autonomous driving." Goldman Sachs pointed out that while FSD technology is continuously advancing, its performance has not yet reached a safety level that surpasses human driving, and there is still a long way to go to achieve fully autonomous driving.

Continuous Upgrades in FSD Technology, Significant Improvement in V13 Performance

Goldman Sachs noted that Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology is progressing rapidly, with the latest V13 version showing significant performance improvements over V12.

Based on the Goldman Sachs team's testing experiences, crowdsourced data, and third-party evaluations, the critical intervention distance of FSD V13 has reached between 400-450 miles, with no interventions required in 97% of driving scenarios.

Nevertheless, the report also mentioned that FSD technology still has a long way to go to achieve complete "eyes-off" (Level 3 autonomous driving) or "consumer-level autonomous driving" (Level 4 autonomous driving). For example, historical data from Waymo shows that its vehicles experience a critical intervention once every 85,000 miles in urban environments in California, while Tesla's current performance has significant room for improvement.

Additionally, according to U.S. government traffic safety data, ordinary vehicles may experience an accident once every 600,000 to 700,000 miles, while Tesla FSD's performance has not yet reached a safety level that surpasses human driving.

The report believes that although Tesla plans to achieve a safety level surpassing human driving by the second quarter of 2025, this goal may be difficult to meet on schedule. However, as FSD performance continues to improve, Goldman Sachs expects its market penetration and revenue to gradually increase, which will also positively impact the gross margin of Tesla's automotive business.

Robotaxi Business: Launch in 2026, Results by 2027

Goldman Sachs has separately broken down the revenue from Tesla's Robotaxi business in its model for the first time. The report predicts that Tesla's Robotaxi business will begin commercial operations in the second half of 2026 and achieve approximately $115 million in revenue by 2027.

According to Tesla's plan, the service will initially operate in Texas and California, where regulations are relatively lenient. Additionally, Tesla expects to begin production of dedicated Cybercab models in 2026, but Goldman Sachs pointed out that Tesla's timeline planning is often overly optimistic, and actual progress may be delayedTo enhance the reliability of Robotaxi services, Tesla plans to adopt remote assistance and geofencing technology during operations, which are not currently used in the consumer version of FSD. Similar models have been adopted by competitors such as Waymo, Baidu Apollo, and Pony.ai, proving to help improve autonomous driving performance within a limited geographical range.

Research reports estimate that by the end of 2027, the number of Tesla Robotaxis will increase from 300 in 2026 to 1,500, with each vehicle providing 15 to 20 services per day and an average revenue of about $2.50 per mile.

Currently, companies like Waymo, Pony.ai, and Mobileye have made significant technological and market progress. For example, Waymo has launched Robotaxi services in multiple cities across the United States, with its vehicles requiring a critical intervention only once every 85,000 miles, and has completed over 5 million passenger trips. In contrast, Tesla's FSD still needs further optimization to handle complex urban environments and adverse weather conditions.

Model Y Upgrade: Market Response Meets Expectations

The research report also mentioned Tesla's recent release of the Model Y. In January 2025, Tesla launched an upgraded version of the Model Y in the Asia-Pacific market. The new version has improved its range by 4%-7% and added new features such as a rear screen, ambient lighting, and a front bumper camera. Additionally, the acceleration performance of the new model has also improved, and the interior design is quieter.

Although the price of the upgraded Model Y has increased by 4%-5% compared to the older version, Goldman Sachs expects that the price may decrease after mass production