U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures are mixed, with the Christmas holiday approaching this week

1. As of December 23 (Monday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.21%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.02%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.18%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.31%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.18%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.01%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.24%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.35%, priced at $69.22 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.34%, priced at $72.31 per barrel.

Market News

Trading Reminder: The US stock market will be closed for one day on December 25 due to the Christmas holiday. December 25 (Wednesday) is the Christmas holiday in the United States, and the US stock market will be closed for one day. On December 24 (Tuesday), the US stock market will close 3 hours early, at 2 AM Beijing time on the 25th; the market will be closed all day on December 25.

The impact of the Fed's hawkish rate cuts continues, with "higher for longer" returning to investors' sights. As the Christmas holiday approaches, many investors find themselves facing daunting challenges. The US stock market rebounded on the last trading day of last week, but this was not enough to overcome the dual blows of the threat of a government shutdown and the Fed's hawkish rate cuts. Last week, after a dramatic week, investors will receive less economic data this week. Important data includes the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for December, which will be released on Monday, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 21, which will be released on Thursday. The US stock market will close early on Tuesday and will not reopen until Thursday. Fed officials are now predicting that the rate cut in 2025 will be smaller. In the last few trading days of this year, the Fed will re-adopt the "higher for longer" policy stance.

The Fed's hawkish rate cuts hit the cryptocurrency market! Bitcoin falls below $100,000, and Dogecoin and MEME coins plummet. The price of the popular MEME coin Dogecoin has fallen to $0.31, down nearly a quarter compared to last week. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has dropped to around $95,000 after reaching a historic high of $108,000 last week. The price of Dogecoin fell to $0.267 last Friday, the lowest point in over a month. However, over the past 12 months, the token has still risen by 233% With Dogecoin supporter Elon Musk appointed as the head of the U.S. "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), some speculate that Dogecoin may experience astonishing growth during Donald Trump's presidency. However, last week the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but policymakers hinted at being more cautious about future rate cuts, causing Bitcoin prices to drop sharply.

First time since 1989! The Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, yet the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield soars. There is currently an intuitive contradiction in the U.S. bond market: the Federal Reserve has significantly cut rates, yet U.S. Treasury yields are rising. Since major central banks began to cut benchmark rates sharply in September, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has actually risen by more than 75 basis points, marking the largest increase in the first three months of a rate-cutting cycle since 1989. Bond traders rarely suffer such large losses during the Federal Reserve's easing cycles. Now, they are concerned that similar situations may arise again in 2025. Last week, just as the Federal Reserve cut rates for the third consecutive time, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries surged to a seven-month high, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's policymakers hinted that they were prepared to significantly slow the pace of monetary easing next year.

AI transforms into an "electricity-guzzling monster," igniting nuclear power stocks, while hedge funds cash in. Some hedge fund managers are sounding the alarm on overvalued nuclear power stocks and are reducing their investment exposure after a significant rise in nuclear power stocks this year. Funds such as Tribeca Investment Partners based in Sydney and Segra Capital Management based in Palm Beach, Florida, have recently cut their investments in nuclear technology developers and utility companies. However, Keller stated that they would "never" establish short positions, "because as soon as a data center announcement is made, you find yourself getting liquidated." Investing in nuclear power has become one of the hottest energy themes this year. The rise of artificial intelligence and the increasing electricity consumption of data centers mean that the future of nuclear energy is closely tied to the seemingly unstoppable rise of large technology companies.

Stock News

Honda (HMC.US) and Nissan are reportedly set to announce the start of integration talks, aiming to reach a final agreement by June next year. It is reported that Honda Motor and Nissan Motor are expected to announce the start of business integration talks on Monday, as the two automakers seek to survive in a rapidly changing industry landscape. Reports indicate that the two automakers may hold a board meeting on Monday to discuss the negotiations, followed by a joint press conference, with Nissan's alliance partner Mitsubishi Motors also expected to attend. An anonymous source stated that Honda and Nissan plan to reach a final agreement on the merger plan by June. In response, former Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn expressed skepticism about the potential success of a merger between Honda and Nissan at a press conference on Monday, stating that the latter's plan "makes no sense." According to informed sources, Honda and Nissan are expected to announce the start of business integration talks.

Starbucks (SBUX.US) strike action escalates, affecting stores in multiple U.S. cities. A union representing over 10,000 baristas stated late Saturday that Starbucks (SBUX.US) employees have expanded their strike to four additional U.S. cities, including New York The union stated in a declaration that the five-day strike began last Friday, initially closing Starbucks stores in Los Angeles, Chicago, and Seattle, and now Starbucks locations in New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia, and St. Louis have also joined the strike. Starbucks stated that the chaos caused by the strike will not significantly impact its operations, as only a few stores in the U.S. are affected. The strike coincides with the busy holiday sales season, which may impact Starbucks' Christmas sales. Starbucks operates more than 11,000 stores in the U.S. and employs about 200,000 workers.

Despegar (DESP.US) surged 33% in pre-market trading, as South African Naspers subsidiary Prosus will acquire the Latin American online travel company Despegar for $1.7 billion.

Palantir (PLTR.US) reportedly partners with Anduril to create a new defense alliance, targeting traditional defense giants. According to reports, defense technology companies Palantir and Anduril are negotiating with a dozen competitors to form an alliance to jointly bid for U.S. government contracts, challenging large defense companies. The alliance plans to announce agreements with several tech companies next month. Several insiders revealed that companies negotiating to join the alliance include SpaceX, OpenAI, Saronic Technologies, and Scale AI. One insider involved in forming the alliance stated, "We are working together to cultivate a new generation of defense contractors." Reports indicate that tech companies are seeking to capture a larger share of the U.S. federal government's $850 billion defense budget from companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT.US), Raytheon Technologies (RTX.US), and Boeing (BA.US).

Google (GOOGL.US) Willow breaks new milestones in quantum chips. Google recently announced the launch of a quantum chip named Willow, which will reduce some error tendencies of previous generation chips, marking a milestone in bringing quantum computing into the real world, and may change perceptions of cryptocurrency risks in the coming years. Willow boasts nearly unbelievable speed. According to Google, it can complete a calculation that would take today's fastest supercomputers 10^24 years to finish in just five minutes. However, so far, the accuracy of quantum computing has also been a major issue; quantum is like an uncontrolled, full-speed water hose: the water flows quickly, but the target is not always accurate. Theoretically, Willow's speed and accuracy could provide hackers with tools to unlock the algorithms underlying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Venturing into smart homes? Apple (AAPL.US) may launch a smart doorbell device with Face ID by the end of next year. Market news indicates that Apple is developing a smart home doorbell device with Face ID, which is currently in the early stages of development and is expected to be released no earlier than the end of 2025. Reports suggest that the Apple smart doorbell will connect to HomeKit ecosystem door locks via wireless networks, allowing users to unlock the door smartly through Face ID after entering facial data Not only that, this smart doorbell will be equipped with Apple's self-developed Wi-Fi chip, which has a dedicated security zone to protect users' personal data. Industry insiders believe that in the next two years, Apple's smart home hardware products will become a top priority for its development. If Apple wants its new smart home hardware to succeed, it must ensure that its devices are compatible with as many accessories as possible.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:30: Canada's October GDP month-on-month rate.

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

The next day at 02:30 Beijing time: The Bank of Canada will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting