Ctrip's 300 billion concerns still exist

Author | Zheng Qiao

Editor | Zhou Zhiyu Wang Xiaojuan

The tourism market is about to 迎来 a wave of 热潮。

With the arrival of holidays such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, the tourism industry has entered a busy period. At the same time, the transit visa exemption policy has also been adjusted, extending the stay duration for foreigners from the original 72 hours and 144 hours to a unified 240 hours, which undoubtedly adds fuel to the upcoming tourism boom.

Global OTA industry leader Trip.com is also preparing to make a big move. On December 18, at the Global Partners Summit, co-founder and chairman Liang Jianzhang and CEO Sun Jie jointly announced that Trip.com will leverage its global resources and integrated marketing advantages to fully promote inbound tourism to China, contributing to the vigorous development of the tourism industry.

Affected by a series of positive news, Trip.com has also been thriving in the secondary market. As of the date of publication, Trip.com's market capitalization in Hong Kong reached HKD 361.365 billion, ranking seventh among domestic internet companies listed in Hong Kong. Since the beginning of this year, Trip.com's cumulative increase in Hong Kong stocks has exceeded 99%, ranking high among the constituents of the Hang Seng Tech Index.

The surge in Trip.com is due to the gradual recovery of domestic and outbound tourism from the trough, especially as the third quarter tourism peak season arrives, making it a significant beneficiary as the leading domestic OTA.

Previously, Trip.com's financial report showed that net revenue in the third quarter reached RMB 15.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and net profit reached RMB 6.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47%.

Specifically, accommodation bookings and transportation ticketing are Trip.com's largest sources of revenue, contributing over 70% of its total revenue. Among them, accommodation booking revenue increased by 22% year-on-year to RMB 6.8 billion, while transportation ticketing business grew by 5% year-on-year to RMB 5.7 billion; in terms of growth performance, compared to the doubling seen during the special period in 2023, the current levels have returned to normal.

However, as the tourism industry gradually returns to normal, future demand for hotels and tourism may not be as strong as expected, raising questions about where Trip.com's future growth points lie.

From an industry perspective, although Trip.com has held the leading position in the OTA industry for many years, it has faced fierce competition in the domestic market. Established hotel groups and emerging platforms such as Douyin and Meituan are accelerating their entry into the market, making it difficult for Trip.com to rest easy.

For OTA platforms like Trip.com, a significant portion of accommodation booking revenue comes from channel fees paid by hotels. Industry insiders reveal that hotel commission rates can be as high as 15%, far exceeding the 2% commission rate of airlines.

On one hand, the growth in hotel demand is limited. Data service provider STR shows that as of September this year, the annual cumulative RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room), ADR (Average Daily Rate), and OCC (Occupancy Rate) of hotels in mainland China have decreased year-on-year by 6%, 4%, and 2%, respectively, with OCC showing a year-on-year decline for three consecutive quarters, and the performance of hotels at all levels has not reached last year's levels.

On the other hand, large chain hotel groups have been continuously strengthening their membership systems and direct sales channels in recent years, actively reducing their reliance on OTAs by expanding scale and increasing chain rates.

Ji Qi, a former co-founder of Trip.com and now the founder of Huazhu Hotel Group, has repeatedly emphasized the importance of maintaining a balanced relationship with OTAs. To date, 85% of Huazhu Hotel's rooms are sold through its own app In addition to Huazhu, hotel groups such as Jinjiang and Atour are also establishing their own membership systems to reduce customer acquisition costs. Data shows that by 2023, Huazhu Group's total number of members exceeded 228 million, while Jinjiang Group's total number of members reached 195 million, and the number of members for ShouLv and Atour was 151 million and 63 million, respectively.

For higher-end hotels, reducing dependence on platforms has become more urgent. Some high-end hotels are forcing consumers to choose their own channels by offering different services to customers from different sources. For example, many luxury hotels no longer provide free lounge access, breakfast, upgrades, and other member benefits to platinum card members and above who book through third-party channels.

In addition to chain hotels increasing direct sales, causing Trip.com to lose this portion of commission, it is currently also facing a situation where complaints have surged following an increase in orders.

According to data from the Black Cat Complaint Platform, as of December 3, 2024, there were 98,979 complaints about "Trip.com" on the platform, while ten days ago, this figure was 98,036, indicating an increase of over 900 complaints in ten days.

At the same time, platforms like Meituan and Douyin are also making rapid advances.

Meituan's data shows that in the third quarter of 2024, its in-store hotel and travel business order volume increased by over 50% year-on-year, and the number of active merchants reached a new high. In fact, in the second quarter of this year, Meituan's in-store hotel and travel order volume increased by over 60% year-on-year. According to hotel night statistics, Meituan ranks first in the industry and occupies more than half of the market share.

Wall Street Journal learned that the hotel prices offered by Meituan are relatively cheap, and the commission it charges is low. Meituan's Senior Vice President Chen Liang also stated that compared to competitors, the commission charged by Meituan is not high. It is understood that in certain cities, Meituan's hotel commission is only 6%.

Douyin is also an important force in the hotel and travel industry that cannot be ignored. During this year's National Day holiday, the hotel accommodation group purchase order volume on Douyin's life service platform increased by 205% year-on-year.

With wolves surrounding it, Trip.com also needs to seek new opportunities, and overseas markets and inbound tourism have become the current focus for Trip.com.

In the first 11 months of this year, the number of inbound tourists on the Trip.com platform increased by 119% year-on-year; on Trip.com's overseas platform, the traffic for "popular China travel routes" increased by over 500% year-on-year; in the third quarter of this year, inbound hotel bookings on Trip.com increased by about 100% year-on-year. However, facing this lucrative inbound tourism market, it also needs to share with various parties.

Additionally, in the third quarter, Trip.com's overseas business bookings increased by 60% year-on-year. From the current situation, overseas business is a potential sector for Trip.com to sustain significant growth and is also a direction in which it has invested heavily in recent years.

Trip.com management also stated at the earnings conference that the current primary task for Trip.com is to maximize the synergistic effects of its different brands in the international market, prioritize direct traffic and cross-selling for mobile applications, and continuously improve its operational efficiency.

Although Trip.com's stock price has seen a good increase this year, to maintain its position as the seventh largest internet company, it must effectively resolve the attacks from major companies like Meituan and ByteDance in the context of the domestic tourism market returning to normal, while also taking effective measures in the overseas market to quickly open up new opportunities In the next 3-5 years, Trip.com aims to lead all domestic business lines comprehensively, becoming the most advanced online travel platform in Asia and the leading online transportation ticketing platform globally.

However, achieving this ambitious goal is a long and challenging journey. Trip.com needs to continuously improve service levels to encourage users to choose the Trip.com platform, while also balancing the interests with partners, which is essential for maintaining its position as a leader in a highly competitive industry