The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell more than expected, indicating continued resilience in the labor market

According to Zhitong Finance, the U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 14 was 220,000, compared to an expectation of 230,000 and a previous value of 242,000. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 7 was 1.874 million, with an expectation of 1.89 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.886 million to 1.879 million.

The decline in initial jobless claims last week was greater than expected, aligning with the gradual cooling of the labor market. The number of initial jobless claims has entered a period of volatility, which may make it difficult for people to have a clear understanding of the labor market. A series of indicators, including the number of unemployment claims and job vacancies, indicate that the employment situation is much looser than before the COVID-19 pandemic, but the labor market is slowing in an orderly manner. The four-week average of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 14 was 225,500, compared to the previous value of 224,250.

In July of this year, the U.S. unemployment rate jumped from 3.7% at the beginning of the year to 4.3%, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate its easing policy cycle, which included a rare significant rate cut of 50 basis points in September. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters that the downside risks to the labor market seem to have diminished. The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed expects to cut rates only twice next year, down from the four cuts predicted in September, citing that the economy continues to remain resilient and inflation remains high.

The policies of President-elect Trump’s new administration also carry uncertainties, including tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts, and large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants. Economists warn that this will lead to inflation.

Meanwhile, another report released on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously estimated, partly due to stronger consumer spending and exports. The final value of the U.S. third-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was recorded at 3.1%, compared to a previous forecast of 2.8%. The final value of real personal consumption expenditures for the third quarter rose to 3.7%. These data reinforce the view that, despite market expectations that the U.S. economy will eventually slow down, it is still growing strongly. The Federal Reserve previously hinted that the pace of rate cuts would slow in 2025, triggering a sell-off in the stock market, which was partly based on recent stronger-than-expected economic data.

The resilience of the labor market is mainly reflected in the record low unemployment rate, which has been driving economic expansion through strong consumer spending. The initial jobless claims data for December, to be released next week, is expected to further reveal the health of the labor market.

This week's initial jobless claims data covers the non-farm employment data survey in the government's December employment report. In November, non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, partly due to the waning impact of hurricanes and the end of strikes by factory workers at Boeing and another small aerospace company. These factors limited the growth of non-farm payrolls in October to only 36,000