Citigroup supports NVIDIA: expects GPUs to maintain strong momentum, with ASICs accounting for 25% by 2028
Citi believes that NVIDIA's GPUs can be reprogrammed through CUDA-supported software and adapt to different workloads, which is NVIDIA's greatest advantage. Citi maintains a "Buy" rating on NVIDIA and sets its target price at $175, implying about a 34% potential upside for NVIDIA
With the recent performance disclosures from chip manufacturers Marvell and Broadcom exceeding expectations, investors are beginning to worry whether NVIDIA's GPUs will be replaced by custom ASIC chips.
On December 17, Citigroup analysts Atif Malik and Papa Sylla released a report supporting NVIDIA, reiterating that "these two types of chips will coexist." Citigroup expects that by 2028, the total addressable market (TAM) for AI accelerators will reach $380 billion, with AI GPUs dominating, holding a 75% share, while ASICs will only account for 25%.
Analysts believe that NVIDIA's GPU can be reprogrammed through CUDA support software and adapt to different workloads, which is NVIDIA's greatest advantage.
Citigroup also stated that although the share of ASIC unit combinations may exceed 35% by 2028, due to the higher average selling price (ASP) of AI GPUs, the sales share of ASICs may be limited to around 25%.
Additionally, Citigroup's supply chain discussions indicate that NVIDIA's Cowos foundry capacity allocation is expected to grow from 56% in 2024 to 60% in 2025, showing that GPUs will still maintain strong growth momentum in 2025.
Citigroup maintained a "Buy" rating on NVIDIA and set a target price of $175, which also implies about a 34% potential upside for NVIDIA. After-hours trading saw NVIDIA's stock price rise by 0.53%.
