The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs, French stocks and French bond yields fluctuated and turned upward, the euro once fell more than 1%, and the dollar rose

Market expectations are that the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. The U.S. ISM manufacturing data for November remains in contraction but exceeds expectations, driven by new orders returning to expansion. The Eurozone's services and manufacturing PMIs for November both contracted, with new orders declining for six consecutive months, and business confidence at its lowest in a year.

In 2024, voting committee member and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he is open to policy adjustments. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller leans towards supporting a rate cut in December but is concerned about inflation progress. The market expects the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December to rise from 66% to 74.5%, and anticipates a 31 basis point cut by the European Central Bank in December, with a total of 145 basis points cut by the end of 2025.

French Prime Minister Barnier bypassed parliament to force approval of the budget, with both the far-right National Rally and left-wing parties threatening to initiate a vote of no confidence, making the dissolution of the French government almost certain. French stocks and the euro both fell more than 1% at one point, as investors flocked to German bonds for safety, with the spread between French and German 10-year government bonds widening by 8 basis points to 89 basis points, marking the largest increase since June and approaching a twelve-year high.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that interest rate hikes are "near," with overnight index swaps indicating a 60% probability of a rate hike in December and nearly a 90% probability before the end of January next year.

The political turmoil in France has led to a sell-off of risk assets, with French bond yields soaring relative to German bond yields (reaching EU crisis levels). Worse still, French bond yields are now on par with Greek yields (or even higher).

On the first trading day of December, the Nasdaq and S&P reached all-time highs, while the Dow Jones fell after breaking through45000points, moving away from its peak. Tech stocks and chip stocks rose broadly, with Apple hitting a new high, and the China concept index rising about1%. Tesla rose over4%at its peak, while Intel rose over5.9%before closing down, and Super Micro Computer once rose over35%:

• Among the three major U.S. stock indices, only the Dow fell. The S&P 500 index closed up 14.77 points, an increase of 0.24%, at 6047.15 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, closed down 128.65 points, a decrease of 0.29%, at 44782.00 points. The Nasdaq, which is heavily weighted in tech stocks, closed up 185.78 points, an increase of 0.97%, at 19403.95 points. The Nasdaq 100 index closed up 1.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech stocks, closed up 1.61%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, closed down 0.02%. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, closed down 1.26%, at 13.34.

The S&P 500 index set its 54th new high of the year, with the Nasdaq leading the gains The Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly declined, while the small-cap stock index was nearly flat.

• U.S. stock sector ETFs had mixed results. The semiconductor ETF rose by 2.37%, the global technology stock index ETF increased by 1.19%, the technology sector ETF, internet stock index ETF, and consumer discretionary ETF rose by about 0.9%, while the banking sector ETF and regional bank ETF fell by about 0.9%. The financial sector ETF and energy sector ETF decreased by about 1%, and the utilities ETF dropped by 2.15%.

• Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, most fell. The telecommunications sector rose by 1.45%, the consumer discretionary sector increased by 1.06%, the information technology/technology sector rose by 1.03%, the consumer staples sector fell by 0.10%, the healthcare sector decreased by 0.13%, the materials sector dropped by 0.20%, the industrial sector fell by 0.66%, the energy sector decreased by 0.85%, the financial sector fell by 0.90%, the real estate sector dropped by 1.44%, and the utilities sector decreased by 2.08%.

• In terms of investment research strategy, JP Morgan predicts that the S&P 500 index is expected to further rise to 6200 to 6300 points by the end of the year, an increase of 3%-4% from last Friday's 6032 points. Analyst Andrew Tyler mentioned in the report that a positive macro environment, earnings growth, and support from the Federal Reserve are reasons for maintaining a bullish outlook, and he recommends leveraging market momentum by favoring value stocks and cyclical sectors such as banks, automakers, transportation companies, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index, while continuing to invest in the seven major technology stocks in the technology and telecommunications sectors, data centers, and semiconductors.

• The "Tech Seven" saw widespread gains. Tesla rose by 3.46%, starting to roll out the latest version of FSD, V13.2. Meta Platforms increased by 3.22%, Microsoft rose by 1.78%, Google A gained 1.5%, and Amazon rose by 1.36%. Apple increased by 0.95%, but UBS stated that demand for Apple's AI-enabled smartphones is weak, with little market interest. NVIDIA rose by 0.27%.

• Chip stocks led the way. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.61%. The industry ETF SOXX increased by 2.63%. The double-leveraged ETF for NVIDIA rose by 0.38%. Wolfspeed surged by 15.87%, Marvell Technology rose by 4.5%, ASML increased by 3.62%, KLA gained 2.94%, and Applied Materials rose by 4.9%. TSMC ADR rose by 5.27%. Broadcom increased by 2.73%, Qualcomm rose by 2.84%, ON Semiconductor gained 3.98%, and Arm Holdings rose by 4.51%. AMD rose by 3.56%. Micron Technology increased by 0.61%. Intel rose over 5.9% before closing down 0.5%, as the board expressed dissatisfaction with progress, leading Intel's CEO to retire after facing pressure

• AI concept stocks have mixed performance. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by Nvidia, fell 3.87%, BigBear.ai fell 3.93%, Dell Technologies fell 1.37%, C3.ai fell 2.66%, Palantir fell 1.03%, Oracle fell 1.86%, Snowflake fell 1.36%, BullFrog AI fell 1.86%, while Serve Robotics rose 5.17%, CrowdStrike rose 0.24%, Super Micro Computer rose 28.68%, as the company will replace its CFO, and the special committee found no misconduct.

After the internal investigation found no misconduct, Super Micro Computer's stock price surged, at one point rising over 35%.

• Most Chinese concept stocks rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.98%. The China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 1.04%, the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 1.14%, and the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) rose 0.83%. The FTSE A50 futures index rose 0.08% in the continuous night session, closing at 13274.000 points.
• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Miniso rose 14.04%. Daqo New Energy rose 6.94%, XPeng rose 5.31%, Bilibili rose 3.91%, Meituan ADR rose 3.21%, Zhihu rose 3.06%, New Oriental rose 2.74%, Pinduoduo rose 2.51%, ZEEKR rose 2.26%, Tiger Brokers rose 1.9%, Baidu rose 1.73%. Baidu's "LuoBo Kuaipao" responded to the approval of Hong Kong's first autonomous driving license and has begun global business expansion. Fangduoduo rose 0.05%, NetEase rose 1.59%, Trip.com rose 0.93%, JD.com rose 0.24%, while Nio fell 1.79%, Vipshop fell 0.51%, Li Auto fell 3.72%, and Alibaba fell 1.63%.
• Bitcoin futures briefly fell below $95,000, and cryptocurrency concept stocks mostly declined. Bitdeer Technologies fell 3.01%, Canaan Inc. fell 1.89%, Riot Platforms fell 4.35%. The short-seller Citron targeted "Bitcoin whale" MicroStrategy, which fell 1.85%. The latest filings show that since November 11, MSTR has purchased over $13.5 billion in Bitcoin and currently holds about $38 billion in Bitcoin. Mercurity Fintech fell 11.3%, while the cryptocurrency "meme stock" YouDian Interactive fell over 81.8% in early trading before closing up 36.36%. Cryptocurrency exchange giant Coinbase rose 2.09%
• Most bank stocks fell. The Dow Jones KBW Regional Banking Index closed down 0.58%. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange KBW Bank Index closed down 1.22%. Among the major Wall Street banks, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo both closed down at least 1.17%, while Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley fell by about 1% at most, and Citigroup rose over 0.7%.
• Among other key stocks: (1) The world's third-largest traditional automaker Stellantis saw its European and American stocks both drop over 6%, following news of the resignation of the company's CEO. (2) Disney closed down 0.26%, with Disney's movie "Moana 2" earning $221 million in North American weekend box office during the Thanksgiving long weekend (five days), setting a historical high for the same period.

"Political turmoil in France" dragged European stocks to open lower but ultimately closed higher, with the French stock market opening down over 1.2% before narrowly closing up, while the German stock index fell 0.12% before rising about 1.6% to a historical high:

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.66%, at 513.61 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.88%. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index closed up 0.71%.
• Among individual stocks, wage conflicts escalated, with German unions announcing that about 66,000 Volkswagen workers participated in strikes, causing Volkswagen to close down 0.07%.
• The Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 0.21%. The German DAX 30 index closed up 1.57%. The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.02%. The UK FTSE 100 index closed up 0.31%. The Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 0.81%. The Dutch AEX index closed up 0.67%.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a rate cut in December, and the yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries narrowed. The French government's financing costs experienced a V-shaped reversal, with German bond yields generally falling over 5 basis points, as investors concerned about the stability of the French government sought refuge in German bonds:

• U.S. Treasuries: At the close, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 1.54 basis points to 4.1839%, reaching a daily high of 4.2420% at 23:04 Beijing time, then quickly falling, hitting a daily low of 4.1724% at 00:32. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 2.25 basis points to 4.1734%. Waller stated, "If the data is as expected, I tend to support a rate cut in December. If the data is unexpected, we will consider holding steady," after which it dropped from 4.2% and refreshed the daily low.

The yield curve between the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields inverted today

• European Bonds: At the end of the European market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year German government bond in the Eurozone fell by 5.4 basis points, marking a decline for eight consecutive trading days, reported at 2.034%. The yield on the 2-year German bond fell by 5.3 basis points, reported at 1.899%. The yield on the 10-year British government bond fell by 2.9 basis points. The yield on the 2-year British bond fell by 2.6 basis points. The yield on the 10-year French government bond rose by 2.2 basis points, reported at 2.918%, initially rising, then falling, and rising again at the end of the day. The yield on the 10-year Italian government bond fell by 1.0 basis point.

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index exceeded expectations, boosting the dollar index by more than 0.6%, while interest rate hike expectations pushed the yen towards 149. Market concerns about stagnation in the Eurozone and the collapse of the French government led to the euro's deepest drop of over 1.1%. The offshore yuan fell by more than 460 points, breaching 7.29 yuan, and Bitcoin futures dropped to nearly $95,000 during trading, while Ripple surged over 85% in the last five calendar days:

• Dollar: The dollar index DXY rose by 0.62%, reported at 106.388 points, opening higher and steadily climbing throughout the day, approaching the 107-point mark at 23:47 Beijing time. The Bloomberg dollar index rose by 0.49%.

The dollar bids farewell to its recent decline, rebounding on Monday.

• Non-U.S. Currencies: The euro fell by 0.73% against the dollar, reported at 1.05, having dropped to 1.0461 at 00:04 Beijing time—testing the November 22 low of 1.0335. The pound fell by 0.61% against the dollar, reported at 1.2656. The dollar rose by 0.62% against the Swiss franc, reported at 0.8864; among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.53% against the dollar, the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.47%, and the dollar rose by 0.28% against the Canadian dollar. The Swedish krona fell by 0.86% against the dollar, and the Norwegian krone fell by 0.71% against the dollar.
• Yen: The yen fell by 0.13% against the dollar, reported at 149.58 yen, with an intraday trading range of 150.75-149.08 yen.
• Offshore Yuan (CNH): The offshore yuan (CNH) fell by 373 points against the dollar, reported at 7.2864 yuan, trading overall in the range of 7.2495-7.2956 yuan during the day.
• Cryptocurrency: The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin futures, fell by 2.00%, reported at $96,400.00, refreshing the daily low to $95,270.00 at 01:59 Beijing time. The second-largest, Ethereum, rose by 1.07%, reported at $3,670.50, after reaching a daily high of $3,816.50 at 11:03 before fluctuating downwards. Ripple (XRP) surged by 26.9% in the last 24 hours, accumulating over 92.85% since trading ended on November 28

Bitcoin once fell to $95,000

Boosted by Chinese manufacturing data and escalating tensions in the Middle East, oil prices on Monday hit a daily high, rising about 1.5% , but the strengthening dollar and uncertainty over OPEC+ 's oil production policy dragged oil prices down during the session, ultimately closing nearly flat. Natural gas inventories in the U.S. during the winter heating season reached the highest level since 2016, with U.S. natural gas futures falling over 4% :

• U.S. Oil: WTI January crude oil futures closed up $0.10, an increase of nearly 0.15%, at $68.10 per barrel. U.S. oil rose over 1.6% to break $69.10 before the U.S. stock market opened, and fell over 0.4% to nearly $67.70 during midday trading.
• Brent Oil: Brent February crude oil futures closed down $0.01, a decrease of 0.01%, at $71.83 per barrel. Brent oil rose nearly 1.5% to approach $72.90 before the U.S. stock market opened, and fell over 0.4% to nearly $71.50 during midday trading.
• On the news, OPEC's crude oil production increased for the second consecutive month, with an average output of 27.02 million barrels per day in November, an increase of 120,000 barrels per day month-on-month. The recovery of Libyan production after the political crisis accounted for the main increase, while Iraq reduced production for the third consecutive month under OPEC pressure, still slightly exceeding its quota. The UAE's daily production increased to 3.26 million barrels, far exceeding the limit.
• Natural Gas: NYMEX January U.S. natural gas futures closed down 4.46%, at $3.2130 per million British thermal units. European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures rose 2.45%, at €48.460 per megawatt hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 1.20%, at 121.000 pence per kilocalorie.

U.S. oil prices fell below $68 during the session, reaching the lowest point in two weeks

The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together, causing precious metals and London industrial metals to decline, with spot gold falling nearly 1.2% at its lowest point, weakening the upward momentum from the previous four trading days, although geopolitical uncertainties partially narrowed the decline:

• Gold: COMEX gold futures for February contracts fell 0.73% at the close, at $2,661.60 per ounce. Spot gold fell nearly 1.2% to nearly $2,620 during the session, closing down 0.15% at $2,639.08 per ounce.
• Silver: COMEX silver futures for March contracts fell 0.49% at the close, at $30.955 per ounce. Spot silver fell nearly 1.8% to nearly $30 during the session, closing down 0.38% at $30.5098 per ounce
• London industrial metals broadly decline, with London nickel and tin falling over 1%: London copper fell by $18, closing at $8,992 per ton. COMEX copper futures rose by 0.04%, closing at $4.1415 per pound. London zinc fell by $26, closing at $3,076 per ton. London aluminum fell by $4, closing at $2,590 per ton. London lead rose by $4, closing at $2,076 per ton. London nickel fell by $210, a decline of 1.32%, closing at $15,693 per ton. London tin fell by $340, a decline of over 1.17%, closing at $28,573 per ton. London cobalt remained flat, closing at $24,300 per ton.
• Robusta coffee fell by about 11%, while New York cocoa briefly rose above $9,500, setting a new historical high.

The following is updated content before 23:30 Beijing time on December 2

In December, the Nasdaq, S&P, and Apple hit historical highs, while the Dow Jones turned down after breaking 45,000 points:

• Among the three major U.S. stock indices, only the Dow Jones fell. The S&P 500 index briefly rose over 0.2%. The Dow Jones, closely related to the economic cycle, initially rose over 91 points before falling over 197 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq briefly rose nearly 0.9%.

• Sector ETFs in the U.S. stock market showed mixed results at the open. Consumer discretionary ETFs and semiconductor ETFs rose over 1%, while internet stock index ETFs, global tech stock index ETFs, and tech sector ETFs rose by up to about 0.7%. Energy sector ETFs fell over 0.2%.

• The "Tech Seven Sisters" all rose. Tesla briefly rose nearly 4%, Meta briefly rose nearly 2.5%, Amazon briefly rose nearly 2.4%, Google A briefly rose over 1.8%, NVIDIA briefly rose nearly 1.6%, Microsoft briefly rose over 1%, and Apple briefly rose over 1%.

• Chip stocks broadly rose. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index briefly rose over 2%. Marvell Technology initially rose over 5.3% before narrowing its gains, TSMC briefly rose over 4%, Wolfspeed briefly rose over 4.7%, and Arm Holdings briefly rose over 3.6%.

• AI concept stocks showed mixed results. Super Micro Computer initially rose nearly 16% before giving back some gains, as the company's review found no misconduct, leading to the decision to replace the CFO. Serve Robotics briefly rose over 11.4%, BullFrog AI briefly rose over 2.3%, while NVIDIA-backed AI voice company SoundHound AI briefly fell over 5%, and Dell Technologies briefly fell over 2.8%

• Most Chinese concept stocks rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 1% before giving back most of its gains. Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Miniso once rose over 15.7%, XPeng once rose over 9%, Mengniu Dairy ADR once rose over 4.8%, Tiger Brokers once rose over 3.6%, and Bilibili once rose over 4.3%.

• Bitcoin futures once fell below $95,000, and cryptocurrency concept stocks mostly declined. The cryptocurrency "meme stock" Youdian Interactive fell nearly 82% at the beginning of trading before halving its losses, while Mercurity Fintech once fell about 15%.

• In other assets: (1) The euro once fell over 1%, as Le Pen's party will support a no-confidence motion against the French government. French Prime Minister Barnier forcibly passed the French budget, and the government faces the risk of collapse. (2) The yield spread between U.S. and German 10-year government bonds may reach its widest closing level since 2019. The yield on U.S. 10-year government bonds once rose nearly 7.0 basis points, reaching a daily high of 4.2381%; the yield on 10-year German bonds is currently down about 4.0 basis points, reported at 2.051%.

【The following is updated content before 22:00】

ECB officials hinted at a rate cut in December, and European stocks rose; AFP reported that the French government made concessions on budget issues, with the French stock market rising 0.18%. The euro continued to decline, while the dollar strengthened; U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, putting pressure on gold.

On Monday, December 2, S&P Global reported that China's November Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, reaching a five-month high, with manufacturing sentiment improving for two consecutive months, and the improvement being the most significant since June. Boosted by Chinese data, iron ore prices continued to rise.

Currently, the market is awaiting the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday for clues on the interest rate path for this month.

In pre-market trading, popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with XPeng rising over 3%, Li Auto falling over 4%, and JD.com rising over 1%. Stellantis fell over 8% in pre-market trading.

European stocks were mixed, with the German DAX index rising 1.16%, the French CAC40 index rising 0.18%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rising 0.62%.

The yield on French 10-year government bonds fell, currently reported at 2.891. The yield difference between French and German 10-year government bonds widened by 4 basis points at the open, to 85 basis points.

The euro continued its downward trend against the dollar, falling 0.8% to 1.0496.

The dollar index once rose 0.5%, currently up 0.38%.

Spot gold fluctuated downwards, once falling over 1%, nearly erasing the cumulative gains of the previous four days, currently down 0.86% at $2,627.13 per ounce. Iron ore futures rose.

Intel rose over 5% in pre-market trading after announcing the retirement of CEO Pat Gelsinger. FRANK YEARY was appointed as interim executive chairman, and the board is searching for a new CEO

Before the US stock market opens, popular Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with XPeng rising over 3%, Li Auto falling over 4%, and JD.com rising over 1%.

Stellantis fell over 8% before the US stock market opened, following news that the company's CEO resigned.

European stocks rose, with Germany's DAX index up 1.16%, the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.37%, France's CAC40 index up 0.18%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index up 0.62%. Earlier, European Central Bank Governing Council member and Bank of Greece Governor Stournaras stated that the European Central Bank may continue to cut interest rates in December.

The yield on France's 10-year government bonds fell, currently reported at 2.891.

The US dollar index rose by 0.5% at one point, currently up 0.38%.

The US dollar rose, while non-US currencies fell.

Spot gold fluctuated and fell, dropping over 1% at one point, nearly erasing the gains from the previous four days, currently down 0.86% at $2,627.13 per ounce. Several analysts indicated that short-term gold prices face adjustment demands, but they remain optimistic about the long-term trend of gold prices.

Iron ore futures rose 1.26%.