Overnight U.S. Stocks | Three Major Indices Mixed, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Hit New Highs, Super Micro Computer Rises Over 28%

According to Zhitong Finance, on Monday, the three major indices had mixed results. This week, the market is focused on the U.S. non-farm payroll data for November, the Trump administration's policies, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December.

[U.S. Stocks] As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 128.65 points, a decrease of 0.29%, closing at 44,782.00 points; the Nasdaq rose 185.78 points, an increase of 0.97%, closing at 19,403.95 points; the S&P 500 index rose 14.77 points, an increase of 0.24%, closing at 6,047.15 points. Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) rose over 28%, Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 3.4%, and Meta Platforms (META.US) rose over 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 0.98%, XPeng (XPEV.US) rose over 5%, Douyu (DOYU.US) rose 11%, and Alibaba (BABA.US) fell 1.6%.

[European Stocks] The German DAX 30 index rose 322.71 points, an increase of 1.64%, closing at 19,951.05 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 24.18 points, an increase of 0.29%, closing at 8,311.48 points; the French CAC 40 index rose 1.78 points, an increase of 0.02%, closing at 7,236.89 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 41.25 points, an increase of 0.86%, closing at 4,845.65 points; the Spanish IBEX 35 index rose 88.70 points, an increase of 0.76%, closing at 11,730.00 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index rose 76.44 points, an increase of 0.23%, closing at 33,491.00 points.

[Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.8%, the Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia fell 0.95%, and the KOSPI index in South Korea fell 0.058%.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell 1.9%, trading at $95,449.35 per coin; Ethereum fell 2.6%, trading at $3,615.05 per coin.

[Gold] COMEX gold futures for February delivery fell 0.73%, trading at $2,661.60 per ounce; spot gold fell 0.15%, trading at $2,639.08 per ounce.

[Crude Oil] West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for January delivery rose $0.10, an increase of about 0.15%, closing at $68.10 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for January delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange fell 1 cent, a decrease of 0.01%, closing at $71.83 per barrel. Four OPEC+ sources indicated that OPEC+ may extend the latest round of production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2025 at Thursday's meeting to provide more support for the oil market. OPEC+ has been gradually planning to end production cuts by 2025. However, slowing global demand and rising production outside of OPEC pose obstacles to this plan and have pressured oil prices. One source stated, "This production cut measure may extend into the first quarter." OPEC+ and allies like Russia will hold a meeting on Thursday to decide their production strategy. Eight member countries participating in the latest round of OPEC+ production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day are scheduled to increase production by 180,000 barrels per day in January However, due to the decline in oil prices, the production increase plan has been postponed from October this year.

【Macroeconomic News】

US ISM manufacturing data better than expected, demand weak but showing signs of easing. Timothy Fiore, chairman of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, stated that US manufacturing activity contracted again in November, but the pace of contraction slowed compared to last month. Demand remains weak but may be easing, output has declined again, and inputs remain loose. Positive signs on the demand side include: the new orders index returning to the expansion zone, the new export orders index rising moderately (up 3.2 percentage points but still in the contraction zone), the backlog of orders index further falling into a strong contraction zone, and the customer inventory index showing levels just slightly above "too low." Basic industries such as chemical products and metal products continue to perform weakly, indicating that recovery may still take two to three months. Inventory continues to improve, and suppliers are improving delivery performance.

Federal Reserve's Williams: Expects further rate cuts from the Fed. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated on Monday that as inflationary pressures continue to ease, the Fed may further lower its interest rate target. Speaking at a meeting of the Queens Chamber of Commerce in New York, Williams said, "Monetary policy remains in a restrictive range to support a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target." Looking ahead, "I expect that over time, continuing to shift towards a more neutral policy setting will be appropriate," Williams said, adding that the policy path will depend on data. "If we have learned anything in the past five years, it is that the outlook remains highly uncertain." Williams did not provide clear guidance on the timing of rate cuts or whether he believes the Fed will lower its interest rate target at this month's FOMC meeting.

Federal Reserve hawkish official Waller: Prefers rate cuts in December. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that he leans towards supporting a rate cut at the Fed meeting later this month, although he also indicated that he might be open to the idea of keeping rates unchanged. In remarks prepared for a meeting in Washington on Monday, Waller stated, "Policy remains sufficiently restrictive, and further rate cuts at the next meeting will not significantly change the stance of monetary policy, leaving enough room to slow the pace of rate cuts when necessary to stay on track towards the inflation target." Waller expressed concern about inflation data being slightly higher than expected over the past two months. He likened himself to a mixed martial artist, "always choking inflation, waiting for it to strike, but it always slips away at the last moment." He stated that the Fed will not allow inflation to accelerate again. "Yielding is inevitable; inflation has not yet escaped the octagon," he said. Waller noted that despite inflation being more stubborn in recent months, economic data and forecasts indicate that inflation will return to the Fed's 2% target.

US debt burden continues to grow, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors, stated that the US national debt continues to rise, approaching $36 trillion, raising questions about fiscal sustainability. By 2034, interest payments are expected to rise to $1.71 trillion, equivalent to 4.1% of GDP, further limiting fiscal flexibility These increasing debts may exacerbate concerns about fiscal health, making current challenges potentially more difficult to address. While the market remains confident in the trust and credit of the U.S. government, risks are rising, and both investors and fiscal policymakers need to proceed with caution. The "watchers" of the bond market may be gathering, and further expanding government spending, especially when the economy does not need more stimulus, could provoke market discontent.

【Individual Stock News】

MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) increases Bitcoin holdings for the fourth consecutive week, total holdings reach $38 billion. MicroStrategy has purchased an additional $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, marking the fourth consecutive week that this cryptocurrency hedge fund proxy has bought Bitcoin. According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), MicroStrategy acquired 15,400 Bitcoins between November 25 and December 1. Since November 11, the company has purchased over $13.5 billion in Bitcoin and currently holds approximately $38 billion in Bitcoin. Co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor has transformed this enterprise software manufacturer into what he calls a "Bitcoin treasury," attracting attention from Wall Street. The company's stock price has surged over 500% this year, outperforming nearly all other major stocks. MicroStrategy has been financing its Bitcoin trades by selling convertible notes and issuing stock in the market.

Intel (INTC.US) leadership undergoes significant changes as CEO Patrick retires. Intel announced today that CEO Patrick P. Gelsinger is retiring from the company and stepping down from the board after more than 40 years of distinguished career, effective December 1, 2024. Intel has appointed two executives, David Zinsner and Michelle Johnston Holthaus, as interim co-CEOs while the board searches for a new CEO. Frank Yary, the independent chairman of Intel's board, will serve as interim executive chairman during the transition. The leadership structure of Intel Foundry remains unchanged. The board has established a committee that will work diligently and swiftly to find a permanent successor to Patrick P. Gelsinger.

【Major Ratings】

Stifel: Raises Tesla (TSLA.US) target price from $287 to $411