Trump's victory led to hedge funds making a fortune in November, with some funds reversing their fortunes in just one month. The performance of the "new king of hedge funds" remains impressive

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2024.12.02 22:50
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The "Trump Trade" is driving the entire hedge fund industry to achieve its best performance in at least four years. The tactical trading fund of the "new king of hedge funds," Citadel, has raised its annual return to 20% this year, while Rob Citrone's Discovery Capital Management macro hedge fund grew by 14.5% in November, bringing its annual return to 46.5%

Trump won last month's U.S. election, and the "Trump trade" is expected to drive the entire hedge fund industry to achieve its best performance in at least four years.

According to Bloomberg, here are the performances of major hedge funds:

  • The "new king of hedge funds," Citadel and Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, performed impressively. Citadel's tactical trading fund and Schonfeld's fundamental equity fund both saw significant growth in November, pushing their annual returns to 20% and 18.6%, ranking among the best-performing multi-strategy hedge funds this year.
  • Rob Citrone's Discovery Capital Management macro hedge fund grew by 14.5% in November, bringing its annual return to 46.5%, making it one of the most successful funds of the year.
  • The Rokos fund also made substantial profits. Following Trump's clear victory, billionaire Chris Rokos's hedge fund quickly profited by about $1 billion. As of November 22, the fund's year-to-date return had reached 28.5%.
  • Balyasny Asset Management saw a turnaround in performance. Balyasny's hedge fund recorded a 3.9% return in November, transforming its previously lackluster annual performance into a cumulative return of 11.6% for the year. Brevan Howard's Master fund also achieved a turnaround, performing strongly in November and successfully reversing its earlier subdued performance, with a current year-to-date return of 9%.

After Trump's victory, the "Trump trade" swept in, which includes rising U.S. stocks, a stronger dollar, soaring Bitcoin prices, and falling U.S. Treasury bonds. The specific logic is:

Investors expect the Trump administration to continue pushing for tax cuts, deregulation, and implementing trade tariffs, driving economic growth and corporate profits, hence the rise in U.S. stocks and the dollar.

The Trump administration strongly supports digital currencies, which has driven up cryptocurrency prices.

A series of policies that Trump may implement have raised inflation expectations, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury bond prices.

The dramatic fluctuations in major asset classes in November provided excellent profit opportunities for macro traders, further boosting the overall performance of the hedge fund industry:

In November, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.5%, and the S&P 500 index rose 5.7%, both achieving their best monthly performance of the year, while the Nasdaq rose over 6%, and the Russell small-cap index rose nearly 11%.

The dollar rose 1.72% in November, having dipped to 103.37 on November 5, and then generally showed a sustained upward trend.

Bitcoin surged nearly 40% in November, marking its best monthly gain in nine months.

U.S. Treasury bonds initially plummeted after Trump's victory, but by the end of November, they had recovered the losses since the U.S. election. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by over 11 basis points in November, while the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by over 2 basis points in NovemberThe significant increase in hedge fund returns is largely attributed to the successful execution of macro strategies. Funds like Schonfeld and Balyasny have precisely captured trading opportunities across asset classes by leveraging market volatility. In addition, their individual stock investment strategies have performed exceptionally well, enhancing overall returns.

In fact, the hedge fund industry had already shown strong performance this year before Trump's election victory. According to data from PivotalPath, the benchmark index tracking 70 multi-strategy hedge funds is expected to record its best performance since 2020 in 2024. Trump's victory has provided fund managers with more trading opportunities.

Analysts expect that as Trump's policies are gradually implemented, market volatility may persist, bringing more opportunities to the hedge fund industry, while also requiring fund managers to maintain efficient risk management and flexible investment strategies amid uncertainty