The Black Friday shopping season has kicked off, and the retail sector has become the focus
The Black Friday shopping season has begun, and it is expected that the number of shoppers in the United States will reach a historic high of 183.4 million. Benefiting from relaxed interest rates, slowing inflation, and strong holiday sentiment, consumer spending is expected to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% year-on-year, reaching between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. Retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers. The U.S. stock market retail sector has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector up 25% year-to-date
According to Zhitong Finance APP, the relaxation of interest rates, the slowdown in inflation, the imminent threat of tariffs, and strong holiday sentiment are expected to lead to a record number of shoppers in the U.S. this year. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), an estimated 183.4 million people plan to shop in physical stores and online from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday this year. This figure surpasses the record of 182 million set in 2023, an increase of 18.1 million compared to five years ago.
It is estimated that Black Friday remains the most popular shopping day, with 131.7 million people planning to shop, of which 65% will go to physical stores. These numbers continue to demonstrate the resilience of American consumers, with winter holiday spending expected to reach record levels in November and December. NRF forecasts a year-on-year growth of 2.5% to 3.5%, reaching between $979.5 billion and $989 billion, and retailers are expected to hire 400,000 to 500,000 seasonal workers to meet demand and support business operations.
So far this year, the performance of the U.S. retail sector has also been strong. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector has surged 25% year-to-date, with stocks like Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL.US), Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US), and Tapestry (TPR.US) leading the way, while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector index has achieved an 18% return driven by Walmart (WMT.US), Costco (COST.US), and Kellogg (K.US). However, even within the same industry, there are significant differences among companies, with Walmart's stock recently soaring to new highs after a quarter of gains, while Target (TGT.US) fell 20% following its third-quarter earnings announcement