Macro Must-See Chart: Insiders are Accelerating Sales of US Stocks (2024/11/20)
Japan and China sold a record $61.9 billion and $51.3 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds in the third quarter of 2024, respectively. Company insiders are selling U.S. stocks at the fastest pace in 20 years. Bloomberg's U.S. Financial Conditions Index is nearing historically loose levels. The UK's October CPI year-on-year is 2.3%, strengthening the case for the central bank to cut interest rates. Analysts point out that gold prices have broken through trends, showing bullish signals
U.S. Treasury Sell-off
Japan sold $61.9 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds in the third quarter of 2024, setting a new historical high; Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, marking the second-highest record in history. Japan and China are the two largest foreign holders of U.S. government debt globally.
U.S. Stock Sell-off
FT: Company insiders are selling stocks at the fastest pace in over 20 years.
Financial Conditions
According to data from the past twenty years, the Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is now nearly at its loosest level in history.
Urgency of Central Bank Rate Cuts
The UK's October CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, higher than previous values and expectations, with energy and airfare prices being the main drivers of rising inflation, while service sector inflation reached 5%, and core inflation also exceeded expectations, rising from 3.2% in September to 3.3%.
These data will strengthen the rationale for the Bank of England to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, aligning with the previously mentioned ranking of rate cut magnitudes among the three major central banks: the Federal Reserve is the smallest, the Bank of England is in the middle, and the European Central Bank is the largest.
A Different Perspective on Gold
Analysts: When an asset climbs along the "wall of worry," I see nothing more bullish than this. The chart below shows gold prices adjusted for U.S. money supply, note the breakout trend.
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