Pulais: There is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the final rate cut by the Federal Reserve
Tim Murray of Pruce said that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates to alleviate interest pressure, but there is uncertainty regarding the extent of the cuts. Despite the rapid rate hike cycle of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy does not seem to be in recession. Rate cuts could stimulate financing activities, especially in the real estate market. Investors should adjust their expectations for economic growth in 2025, as rate cuts may drive consumer spending, but currently, the improvement in consumers' interest costs is limited. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 6.4%, which is above historical levels, leading homeowners to be reluctant to sell properties
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Tim Murray, a capital markets strategist in the multi-asset department of PruLife, commented on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the U.S. economic outlook. He stated that although the Fed's previous rate hike cycle was one of the fastest in history, the U.S. economy seems to have avoided recession. The Fed is likely to cut rates further, which may alleviate interest pressure, but this will take time, and there remains significant uncertainty regarding the extent of the eventual rate cuts. Additionally, Fed rate cuts could affect a wide range of financing activities, but the real estate market often reflects the stimulus of lower interest rates most directly. Therefore, investors should adjust their expectations regarding the economic impact of the Fed's rate cuts in 2025.
Investors are now focused on the pace of economic growth in 2025. The market is optimistic about a faster economic growth rate in 2025, partly due to the expectation that Fed rate cuts will drive economic activity growth, as lower interest costs are expected to stimulate U.S. consumer spending. However, so far, the interest costs for U.S. consumers have only seen slight improvements. Although interest rates on credit cards and new car loans have fallen, they are only about 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) lower than their peak levels.
At the same time, the interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are about 135 basis points lower than their peak levels. Mortgage rates may be the most important monitoring indicator, as the real estate market has a significant impact on U.S. economic activity. As of October 22, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.4%, far higher than the rates for most mortgages signed in the past (calculated on a weighted average basis at 3.9%). This means that many homeowners may be unwilling to sell their properties, as purchasing another property would require paying a higher mortgage rate