BlackRock: Despite high valuations, there is still room for growth in the US stock market
BlackRock's bond chief Rick Rieder stated that although U.S. stock valuations are close to historical highs, there is still room for stock prices to rise due to a lack of sellers and support from company buybacks. He pointed out that 401(k) retirement plan funds and salary inflows into the stock market, along with large companies repurchasing trillions of dollars in stock, have reduced supply and pushed up per-share value. Rieder believes that the price-to-earnings ratio may return to a reasonable level, and despite current overvaluation, the natural trend for U.S. stocks is upward
Even though U.S. stock valuations are close to historical highs, BlackRock's bond chief emphasized a key reason explaining why stock prices can continue to rise.
Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, stated at a conference, "There are no sellers."
On the buy side, even though persistently high interest rates have increased the attractiveness of money market funds, the upward momentum in U.S. stocks remains strong. He said, "Think about the funds from 401(k) retirement benefit plans, some wealth, and salary inflows into stocks, and there are no sellers."
Rieder added that corporate buybacks are also supporting stock prices. He pointed out that large companies have repurchased trillions of dollars worth of their own shares, reducing the supply of stocks and boosting per-share value.
He believes that this offsets any valuation pressure, even as Deutsche Bank's new research shows that the adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is close to the highest level in the past century.
Although Rieder thinks current valuations are too high, he added that if earnings increase significantly, the price-to-earnings ratio will return to a reasonable level.
He said, "People, including myself, want the price-to-earnings ratio to come down. But that's really hard; without a serious event, such as geopolitical issues, the natural trend for U.S. stocks is to rise."
Certainly, Rieder himself has previously pointed out imminent risks, having predicted that U.S. debt could lead to market turbulence, but this is not an immediate threat.
Rieder stated last week: "I think the market often reacts to the sharks closest to the boat. The 'sharks' in terms of debt dynamics won't be near the boat in January or February next year, but they will come close at some point. I don't know if it's in the second half of 2025 or early 2026, unless the government can address the scale of spending, the amount of debt we issue, and the inflation issues relative to that."