Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Stopped 6 consecutive declines! International gold prices surged by 1.6%, expected to rise to record levels next year (with concept stocks)

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on November 18, international gold prices rose again after experiencing six consecutive declines. As of the time of this report, London gold is quoted at $2,612.23 per ounce, an increase of 1.6%. It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, international gold prices have continued to rise, setting new historical highs, with London gold accumulating a rise of over 30% from January to October. However, since November, international gold prices have been on a downward trend, with a maximum decline of nearly 10% from the peak. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs stated that driven by purchases from major central banks and interest rate cuts in the United States, gold prices are expected to rise to record levels next year. Goldman Sachs has listed gold as one of its preferred commodity trades for 2025 and indicated that gold prices may continue to rise during Donald Trump's presidency.

According to Wind analysis, the strong performance of gold prices this year has been mainly influenced by a series of factors, including the global interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical risk factors, and significant gold purchases by central banks.

Since November, gold prices have experienced a rapid decline. Firstly, this is due to the landing of significant political events in the United States. Previously, due to the uncertainty of political events, market risk aversion sentiment continued to rise, benefiting gold's safe-haven attributes and attracting a large number of investors, which provided strong support.

After the events landed, the safe-haven appeal of gold significantly weakened, while U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and other markets received a boost, further prompting investors to sell gold.

Since the significant political events in the United States, cryptocurrencies have surged on expectations that the new government's policies will boost digital assets. The total assets of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF surpassed $40 billion for the first time last week. This surge coincides with a significant outflow of funds from the world's largest physically-backed gold ETF—SPDR Gold Shares.

In addition, the continuous "hawkish" signals released by the Federal Reserve have also negatively impacted gold prices. Although recent U.S. economic data has been mixed, the overall outlook is positive, and the market generally believes that the U.S. economy is likely to achieve a soft landing. More critically, recent hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led the market to predict that the Fed has no intention of continuing significant interest rate cuts.

At the press conference following the November interest rate meeting, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve would continue to cut rates, but if inflation cools and the economy remains strong, rate cuts could be slower. On November 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates and has time to assess the economic impact of future Trump policies before reacting.

Looking ahead to gold prices, Goldman Sachs stated that driven by purchases from major central banks and interest rate cuts in the United States, gold prices are expected to rise to record levels next year. Goldman Sachs has listed gold as one of its preferred commodity trades for 2025 and indicated that gold prices may continue to rise during Donald Trump's presidency.

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, stated in a report: "Buy gold." The analysts reiterated that by December 2025, gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce. They indicated that the structural driving factor behind this forecast is the increased demand from central banks, and as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the inflow of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will bring cyclical support Goldman Sachs analysts state that the unprecedented escalation of trade tensions may revive speculative positions in gold. Additionally, growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy could also boost gold prices. They point out that major central banks—especially those holding large reserves of U.S. Treasury bonds—may choose to purchase more gold.

Guotai Junan believes that in the medium to long term, with Trump's return to power, inflation and credit factors will become key supports for gold to continue strengthening.

Firstly, gold serves as a hedge against inflation; theoretically, the re-inflation expectations caused by "Trump 2.0" will provide long-term benefits for gold. Secondly, from the perspective of fiscal credit, gold has a relative advantage over the U.S. dollar in terms of resisting national credit risk. The expectations of tax cuts and expanded fiscal deficits under "Trump 2.0" may, to some extent, increase the credit risk of U.S. Treasury bonds. Ongoing fiscal expansion and rising deficits may overdraw the credit of the dollar.

For the above reasons, in the medium to long term, the macro factors of "Trump 2.0" will not diminish the bullish factors for gold prices. Guotai Junan believes that gold has a certain medium to long-term allocation value.

Related concept stocks:

Zijin Mining (02899): In the first three quarters of 2024, Zijin Mining achieved operating revenue of 230.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.357 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.68%. The company stated that the significant growth in performance is mainly due to the steady improvement in production and operational management capabilities, an increase in the output of major mineral products, and effective cost control; at the same time, the company's ability to assess the metal market has further improved, fully benefiting from the rise in metal prices.

Shandong Gold (01787): A Morgan Stanley report indicates that against the backdrop of rising gold prices, Shandong Gold continues to enjoy a strong profit trend. The company's production growth comes from the further resumption of operations at the Linglong mine, the expected commissioning of the Cardinal project in Ghana in the fourth quarter, and contributions from its 28.89% stake in subsidiary Yintai Gold (000975.SZ) (now known as Shanjin International).

Laopu Gold (06181): In the first half of 2024, Laopu Gold's revenue and net profit grew by 148% and 199% year-on-year, respectively. In the context of high gold price fluctuations since Q2 and a decline in the gold jewelry industry, its growth performance is particularly remarkable. With the support of strong product power, the company's brand has successfully broken into new circles, rapidly increasing the number of consumers through social content platforms like Xiaohongshu