US Treasury yield "strange" fluctuations release what signal? Allianz El-Erian: The Fed's policy narrative has "no anchor"
Economist Mohamed El-Erian pointed out that on Wednesday, the two-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated significantly, reflecting a lack of clear narrative on the US economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. The yield dropped to 3.55% before the CPI report and fluctuated to 3.68% after the report. El-Erian described this fluctuation as part of the "unanchored" mode, emphasizing the market's urgent need for a stable economic narrative rather than policy guidance based on data
According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, economist Mohamed El-Erian stated that on Wednesday, the two-year US Treasury bond yield experienced significant fluctuations, highlighting the lack of a firm narrative on the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance.
On Wednesday, the two-year US Treasury bond yield dropped to its lowest level in two years, reaching 3.55% before the release of the August CPI report. However, after the report showed a higher-than-expected increase in core CPI, the yield fluctuated, soaring to 3.7%, then falling back to 3.59%, and then rising again to 3.68%.
El-Erian, former CEO of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) and economic advisor to Allianz SE, the parent company of PIMCO, posted on X, stating, "A single-day fluctuation of over 20 basis points in the two-year US Treasury bond yield is unusual in history."
"This is part of the current 'anchorless' mode, which urgently needs stable influences, typically coming from dominant economic narratives rather than the current ping-pong narrative, or forward-looking policy guidance rather than the era of the Fed's over-reliance on data," El-Erian said.
El-Erian had previously mentioned that the market has lost its policy and economic pillars. In an interview in October 2023, he stated, "If the Fed overly relies on data, it cannot provide sufficient forward-looking forecasts." In March of this year, he mentioned that the Fed's "capricious" policy guidance had triggered market volatility.
Last month, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will begin cutting interest rates in September. He mentioned that softening in the labor market makes it less likely to be a source of upward pressure on inflation.
The weakness in data such as the labor market and manufacturing challenges the notion of a soft landing for the US. Concerns about an economic recession this summer led to the Nasdaq Composite Index entering a correction and dragging down the S&P 500 from its historical high in July. However, since then, both major benchmark indices have regained most of the lost ground