Collapsed, nearly 50% plunge in 6 months! Another "disaster" on Friday's non-farm payroll report?
The recently released Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) in the United States has dropped to the lowest level since 2021, raising concerns about the upcoming non-farm payroll report. Job openings in the construction industry have fallen by nearly 50%, returning to the levels of 2016, sparking concerns about data consistency. At the same time, the number of construction positions is said to be at a record high. With layoffs and job vacancies decreasing, the imbalance between supply and demand in the labor market is becoming more apparent, requiring attention to the upcoming August non-farm payroll data, which may have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision
The release of the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Wednesday revealed the lowest level since the beginning of 2021. This report is believed to contain some shocking data, indicating that the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report on Friday could be a disaster. Leading financial bloggers suggest that the US government's pursuit and manipulation of economic data targets has essentially ended, with the visible employment adjustments approaching record levels.
Of particular note is the historic collapse in job vacancies in the construction sector in this JOLTS report, dropping from a historical high of 456,000 in February to a four-year low of 248,000 in July, a nearly 50% plunge in just 6 months, returning to the level the US economy first reached in 2016!
However, during the same period, the "other hand" of the Labor Department apparently did not realize the situation in the job vacancy sector. The Labor Department's report states that when it comes to actual construction positions, this number has never been so high - reaching 950,000, with the number of residential construction positions at a record high.
As shown in the figure, the disconnect between the two has never been so extreme.
So, which data is correct? To answer this question, you don't even need to look at where interest rates are, or know how the highest rates in 40 years affect housing demand. Just look at other key indicators of the US housing market, such as the sharp decline in new housing starts, and the stagnant housing completion rate over the past two years... From these, it can be seen that the number of construction jobs will plummet.
Federal Reserve policymakers have made it clear that they do not want to see further cooling in the labor market, and the market generally expects them to begin cutting interest rates at their next meeting in two weeks. Following the disappointing non-farm payroll data in July and the significant downward revision of employment numbers over the past year, Fed officials and market participants are closely watching the August non-farm payroll data scheduled for release on Friday - if this report is weak again, it could prompt a significant rate cut by the Fed.
Bloomberg strategists state that as layoffs and unemployment rise and job vacancies decrease, the balance of labor supply and demand is shifting, making the weakness in the labor market more pronounced. Ultimately, this should help alleviate potential wage and inflation pressures