Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activity remains flat or declines in 9 regions, consumer spending slows, job market mixed
The overall assessment of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book is not optimistic. Economic activity in most regions remains flat or declining, increasing from 5 in July to 9, with only three regions experiencing slight growth in economic activity, while consumer spending in most regions has slowed. The labor market is mixed, with employers becoming more selective and unwilling to hire more employees, but layoffs remain rare. Analysts say that the Federal Reserve is increasingly concerned about the pace of economic growth, which is one of the reasons for Powell's dovish turn in his Jackson Hole speech
On Wednesday, September 4th, the Federal Reserve released the so-called "Beige Book," a national economic survey report compiled by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. The report indicates that economic activity in most parts of the United States has remained stable or declined in recent weeks.
The Beige Book is published two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. This edition of the Beige Book was prepared by the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank and summarizes information collected up to August 26th, including anecdotes and comments on the business conditions in the districts where the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks are located.
Most regions see stable or declining economic activity, with a slowdown in consumer spending
According to the Beige Book, economic activity in 3 regions showed slight growth, while the number of regions reporting stable or declining economic activity increased from 5 in the July report to 9.
Overall, employment levels remain stable, but some companies are only hiring for essential positions, reducing employee work hours and shifts, or decreasing overall staff numbers through natural attrition (such as retirements or resignations). However, overall layoffs are relatively few. Wage growth has been moderate overall, while non-labor costs and selling prices of goods have also increased, but the overall rate of increase is kept within a mild to moderate range.
Consumer spending in most regions has slightly decreased, whereas in the previous reporting period, consumer spending remained stable overall. Automobile sales vary across regions, with some regions experiencing an increase in car sales, while in other regions, sales have slowed due to high interest rates and elevated car prices.
Manufacturing activity has declined in most regions, with two regions noting that this is part of an ongoing contraction in the industry. Reports on the residential and commercial real estate markets vary, but most regions report a slowdown in home sales.
The situation in the residential construction and real estate market is mixed, but most regions report sluggish home sales. The performance of commercial construction and real estate also varies.
Overall, economic activity in most regions is expected to remain stable or improve slightly, but 3 regions anticipate a slight decline in economic activity.
Mixed sentiments in the labor market, reluctance to hire more, but layoffs remain rare
In recent weeks, overall employment levels have remained stable, and even slightly increased. Employee numbers have slightly increased in five regions, but in some areas, companies have reduced work shifts and hours, abandoned positions advertised in job postings, or reduced staff numbers through natural attrition (such as retirements or resignations). However, layoffs remain rare.
Employers have become more selective and are less willing to expand their workforce, mainly due to concerns about insufficient demand and economic uncertainty. As a result, job seekers are finding it more challenging to secure employment, and it is taking longer. With reduced competition for workers and a decrease in employee turnover, the pressure on companies to raise wages has lessened.
Overall, wage growth remains moderate, consistent with the trend of slowing described in recent reports. However, technical workers and those with specialized skills are still in short supply, experiencing larger wage increases, and union members are seeing faster wage growth
Slight Increase in Prices in Recent Weeks
Overall, prices have seen a slight increase recently, but the magnitude is not significant. Reports from three regions indicate that selling prices have only slightly risen. Firms' non-labor costs (such as raw materials, etc.) are mostly described as moderately to moderately rising, with an overall easing trend, although one region mentioned a slight increase in these costs. Some regions mentioned that freight and insurance costs are still on the rise. In contrast, cost pressures for food, lumber, and concrete have eased in some regions.
Looking ahead, many businesses believe that price and cost pressures may remain stable or further alleviate in the coming months.
After the release of the Beige Book, the US Dollar Index DXY continued to decline intraday. Major US stock indices also saw a short-term decline, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is dominated by blue-chip stocks, rising. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond yields also saw a short-term decline