"Buy on Dips" opportunity just around the corner? Wall Street's famous bull predicts US stocks will fall by 7% to 10%
Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors expects the US stock market to fall by 7% to 10% in the next two months, providing investors with a "buy on dips" opportunity. He pointed out that current concerns about economic growth may lead to a greater market reaction to the upcoming employment report. Lee believes that if the employment report shows a rebound but not excessively strong, it may help the Fed's interest rate cut decision. The market has already anticipated a path of rate cuts of 25 basis points each time, but if the labor market slows down, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut cannot be ruled out
According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, stated that he expects a 7% to 10% pullback in the U.S. stock market in the next two months, providing investors with a "buying opportunity on dips."
Lee pointed out, "Currently, people are more concerned about economic growth, so the employment report and unemployment claims data seem to trigger a greater market response. I believe this will also be the case in September."
Lee stated that the August non-farm payroll report expected to be released this week is expected to show a "significant rebound" in employment growth, but he added, "Hopefully, this rebound is not too strong, because if it is too strong, people may worry that the Fed does not want to start a rate cut cycle in September."
The August employment report, scheduled to be released on Friday at 8:30 am Eastern Time, will help clarify the scale of the Fed's rate cut in September. It is worth noting that last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data seemed to indicate that the Fed will maintain a path of three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. However, if this week's employment data shows further labor market slowdown, investors have not ruled out the possibility of a more aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut.
Known for his optimism, Wall Street strategist Lee, who successfully predicted a market rebound last year, has now become cautious. However, he added that a potential market decline will provide investors with a good opportunity to "buy on dips." "I think in the next eight weeks, people will have the opportunity to buy stocks, so I think it's good to remain cautious, but also be prepared to seize this opportunity."
On Tuesday, the U.S. stock market saw a sharp decline after the Labor Day holiday. According to FactSet data, the Dow fell by 1.51%; the Nasdaq plummeted by 3.26%, marking the worst day since the global stock market crash on August 5; the S&P 500 index dropped by 2.12%. Previous data showed a slight decline in the final value of the U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, and the U.S. August ISM Manufacturing Index also fell short of economists' expectations