Monkeypox Ib mutant strain attracts global attention, first case confirmed in Thailand, US stocks related to monkeypox concept soar

According to the Wise Finance APP, the World Health Organization has launched a global strategic preparedness and response plan to stop the spread of monkeypox among humans through coordinated efforts at the global, regional, and national levels. Additionally, the Thailand Ministry of Public Health recently held a press conference confirming the country's first case of the Ib variant of monkeypox, making it the second global case and the first case in Asia after the WHO raised a global public health alert for monkeypox. Unlike previous cases where the monkeypox virus was mainly transmitted through direct contact or sexual contact, the newly discovered Ib variant virus can also be transmitted through secretions (such as respiratory droplets), rashes, or contaminated items. Monkeypox concept stocks in the US rose before the market opened, with Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP.US) up over 8%, Emergent Biosolutions (EBS.US) up over 2%, and Applied DNA Sciences (APDN.US) up nearly 2%.

Rapid Mutation of the Congo mpox Virus Strain Draws Global Attention

Scientists studying a new strain of the mpox virus spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have stated that the mutation rate of this virus exceeds expectations and often occurs in regions where experts lack the funds and equipment to properly track the virus. This means there are multiple unknowns regarding the virus itself, its severity, and its mode of transmission, increasing the complexity of responding to the epidemic. Six scientists from Africa, Europe, and the United States revealed this information.

Previously known as monkeypox, mpox has been a public health issue in parts of Africa since 1970 but only gained global attention in 2022, prompting the World Health Organization to declare a global health emergency. This status ended after 10 months.

A new strain of the virus known as the Ib type has once again attracted global attention following the announcement of a new health emergency by the World Health Organization. The Ib type is a variant of the I type lineage, which is a strain of the mpox virus transmitted through contact with infected animals that has been prevalent in the Congo for decades. Mpox typically causes flu-like symptoms and pustular lesions, and can even lead to death.

According to data from the World Health Organization, there have been over 18,000 suspected cases of I type and Ib type in the Congo this year, resulting in 615 deaths. Last month, four African countries reported 222 confirmed cases of Ib type, and Sweden and Thailand each reported a case with a history of travel to Africa.

Dr. Dimi Ogoyna, an infectious disease specialist at the University Hospital of the Niger Delta in Nigeria and chair of the WHO mpox emergency committee, expressed concerns, stating, "I am worried that we are acting blindly in Africa." He had warned in 2017 that monkeypox could be transmitted sexually, and now sexual transmission has become a recognized route of transmission for the virus.

"We do not have a deep enough understanding of the epidemic. If we do not understand the severity of the epidemic, it will be difficult for us to address issues such as transmission dynamics, disease severity, disease risk factors, etc.," Ogoyna said. "And what worries me is that the virus appears to be mutating and producing new strains." He pointed out that in Nigeria, the IIb branch took five years or longer to evolve to a level where it could sustainably spread among humans, while the Ib branch achieved this in less than a year.

The World Health Organization estimates that Ib subtype infections will appear around mid-September 2023, and their genetic sequencing indicates that they carry a mutation called APOBEC3, which is a sign of human adaptation.

Dr. Miguel Paredes from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle said, "All cases of mpox transmitted from person to person have this APOBEC mutation feature, which means its mutation rate is faster than we expected."

Paredes and other scientists state that dealing with multiple mpox outbreaks simultaneously has made response efforts more complex. In the past, mpox was mainly transmitted through contact between humans and infected animals. Scientists say this still leads to an increase in cases of the Congo I lineage, partly due to increased deforestation and consumption of bushmeat.

Dr. Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist from South Africa and chairman of the mpox advisory committee at the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, stated that the mutated Ib and IIb viruses can now essentially be considered sexually transmitted diseases. Most cases of the mutated Ib virus occur in adults, initially triggered by the virus prevalent among female sex workers in the South Kivu province of the Congo.

The virus can also spread through close contact with infected individuals, which is likely the reason why children are infected with the Ib virus, especially in overcrowded living conditions in displaced persons camps in Burundi and eastern Congo, where such conditions may be one of the contributing factors.

The World Health Organization states that children, pregnant women, and those with weaker immune systems are at greater risk of severe mpox illness and death. Type I typically leads to more severe disease, with a mortality rate of 4%-11%, while the mortality rate for Type II is around 1%. Ogoyna stated that data from the Congo indicates few deaths from the new Ib version, but he is concerned that some data may be confused.

More research is urgently needed, but three teams tracking the mpox outbreaks in Africa state that they cannot even access the chemical supplies needed for diagnostic tests. Scientists say that without this, implementing response measures including vaccination strategies will be very difficult.

Global Spread of the Epidemic and Prevention Actions in Indonesia

As global attention on the new strain of mpox virus continues to rise, Indonesia, as the host country for an upcoming important international forum, is swiftly taking action to ensure public health safety. Ahead of the forum in Bali with African countries, Indonesian Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin announced enhanced monitoring measures for Mpox, including screening incoming passengers at airports in Jakarta and Bali, and vaccinating healthcare workers on the island. This initiative not only reflects Indonesia's high alertness to global health issues but also demonstrates the country's sense of responsibility on the international stage.

Indonesia currently has no confirmed cases of the more dangerous Mpox strain (Ib type), but the authorities' preventive measures show a serious attitude towards the potential threat of the epidemic. By strengthening monitoring and vaccination efforts, Indonesia is not only protecting its citizens but also providing a safer conference environment for the upcoming 1,500 participants, including heads of state from countries like Zimbabwe and Rwanda In addition, Indonesia's remaining 40 doses of vaccines in the 2022 procurement, combined with an expected 1,600 doses from Denmark, as well as the consideration of more supplies from Japan, demonstrate the country's proactive efforts in vaccine acquisition. Against the backdrop of a global health emergency, these actions by Indonesia not only help control the domestic spread of the epidemic but may also have a positive impact on regional and even global capital markets, especially in the tourism and healthcare industries.

Capital Market Response and Healthcare Industry Dynamics

Meanwhile, neighboring country Thailand has become the first in Asia to confirm infection with the new strain of the virus, further highlighting the importance of regional cooperation in epidemic prevention and control. With the Indonesia-Africa Forum approaching, Indonesia's preventive measures and rapid response to the epidemic may serve as a model for other countries in public health crisis management. While global capital markets closely monitor the development of the epidemic, these actions by Indonesia may also enhance investor confidence in the country's market, especially in healthcare and tourism-related stocks.

It is understood that developers of the smallpox vaccine include Tonix Pharmaceuticals, Bavarian Nordic (BVNRY.US), and GeoVax Labs (GOVX.US), while Emergent BioSolutions has received approval for a vaccine and therapy for smallpox (related to the monkeypox virus).

Suppliers of monkeypox testing products and services include LabCorp (LH.US), Quest Diagnostics (DGX.US), Co-diagnostics (CODX.US), Roche (RHHBY.US), Abbott (ABT.US), and Applied DNA Sciences.

Notably, Trinity Biotech (TRIB.US) saw an 81% increase in its stock price before the market opened on Tuesday, after the diagnostic company raised its sales guidance for 2024 and indicated an increase in production capacity.

Trinity Biotech stated that due to increased demand, the company has expanded the capacity of its TrinScreen HIV testing product and raised its sales forecast for this product in 2024 from $8 million to $10 million.

According to a statement, the company has also increased the capacity of its FlexTrans virus transport medium in anticipation of increased demand due to the monkeypox outbreak