Analyst: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting make Friday's Powell a wilting flower
Analysts say the minutes of the FOMC meeting in July were too dovish, explicitly stating that the Fed will cut rates in September, which is also the most information Powell could reveal in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. This will lead traders to (overly) optimistically believe that rates will be cut four times before the end of the year, while the Fed may only cut rates two to three times. We can see that the swap market is pricing in a 95 basis point rate cut by December, implying that the Fed will cut rates at each of the remaining three meetings this year, with one of them being a significant cut. However, if you pay attention to discussions among Fed officials, you will find this to be an extremely optimistic view. The Fed is more likely to skip the November meeting to achieve consensus on rate cuts, so the final rate cut for the year may only be 50 basis points
Jinshi Data, August 23 news, analysts said that the minutes of the FOMC meeting in July were too dovish, clearly indicating that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, which is also the most information Powell could reveal in his speech at the Jackson Hole on Friday. This will make traders (overly) optimistic that interest rates will be cut four times before the end of the year, while the Fed may only cut rates two to three times. We can see that the swap market is pricing in a 95 basis point rate cut by December, implying that the Fed will cut rates at each of the remaining three meetings this year, with one of them being a significant cut. However, if you pay attention to the discussions of Fed officials, you will find that this is an extremely optimistic view. The Fed is more likely to skip the November meeting to achieve consensus on rate cuts, so the final rate cut for the year may only be 50 basis points