Is the next rebound in US stocks beyond the technology sector?

The US stock market's rising trend shows signs of expansion, and technology stocks may no longer be the only winners.

As the US stock market gradually recovers from the pullback earlier this month, on Monday this week, the S&P equal weight index hit a historic high.

The S&P 500 equal weight index is calculated by equalizing the S&P 500 index, with each stock having a weight of about 0.2%. It is an important indicator to measure the concentration of market trends.

In response to this, Robert Pavlik, Senior Portfolio Manager at Dakota Wealth Management, commented that this indicates that the market's rising trend is expanding:

"Following the earlier surge of the 'Big 7' tech stocks this year, investors are looking for cheaper stocks in other sectors."

Brian Vendig, Chief Investment Officer at MJP Wealth Advisors, believes that as other sector companies' profits grow, the contribution of the tech stocks' 'Big 7' to the market's rising trend is expected to decrease:

"The 'Mag 7' will still contribute to earnings, but the proportion compared to other sectors of the stock market will decrease."

"This does not mean that tech stocks will fall into trouble, as they have already made significant progress, but there are still companies whose profits are growing."

According to Vendig, companies outside of the tech sector will benefit from the following prospects: supply chain normalization, slowing wage growth, corporate balance sheet and business model transformations.

John Butters, Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet Research, stated that the comprehensive earnings growth rate for the S&P in the second quarter (including actual results and forecasts) is 10.9%. Excluding the 'Big 7', the comprehensive earnings growth rate for the other 493 companies is 6.2%.

Changing of the Winners? HSBC: Non-tech stocks making a comeback

In a report released on August 19th, HSBC strategist Nicole Inui pointed out that non-tech stocks saw an average year-on-year earnings growth of about 8% in the second quarter, close to the S&P overall EPS growth rate of 11% year-on-year, with the financial and healthcare industries' profit growth catching up with the tech sector.

Data from the report shows that as of the 19th, about 91% of S&P companies have reported second-quarter performance, with EPS growth rates at the highest level since 2022, where 78% of companies exceeded EPS expectations, surpassing the average level of the past five years.

By industry, a large number of companies in the financial and utility sectors saw second-quarter EPS growth rates exceeding 10%, far surpassing the IT industry.

Moreover, the net profit margin growth of both sectors also leads the way among eleven industries.

Overall, HSBC pointed out that financial stocks, healthcare stocks, and utility stocks drove broader growth, leading to a year-on-year expansion of approximately 0.6 percentage points in the net profit margin of the S&P in the second quarter.

The report indicates that with the expansion of profit growth, it is expected that the stock gains in various industries will be more balanced in the future.

Craig Sterling, stock research director at Amundi US, bluntly stated that in the coming months, technology stocks will not be the only winners.

Sterling believes that if the U.S. can avoid an economic recession, then by next year, the profit growth of the "Big Seven" will begin to slow down, while the profit growth of S&P companies other than these will pick up.

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, also pointed out that historical experience shows that when the economy emerges from a downturn, corporate profits tend to expand.

Thomas stated:

"It is still too early to judge whether the Fed's eventual rate cut is due to slowing inflation or to boost the economy. We are currently considering the possibility of a soft landing."