JP Morgan warns: "Black Monday" may just be a dress rehearsal! The real show is yet to come
JPMorgan Chase warns that the recent sharp drop in US stocks may indicate a worrying future trend. Analysis suggests that slowing economic growth and relaxed arbitrage trading are the main reasons. Despite the market rebounding, it should not be ignored. Meanwhile, the Japanese stock market plummeted by 12.4%, triggering a global market sell-off, indicating that the impact of the yen carry trade on the market has been lifted. Experts express concerns about future market volatility, pointing out that the market may be approaching the peak of a historical stock market bubble, signaling potential risks of a market crash
JPMorgan Chase stated that the sudden sell-off that triggered the largest drop in the US stock market in two years may be a precursor to future trends.
Analysts at the bank said that the recent sharp decline was due to concerns about slowing US economic growth coinciding with the unwinding of arbitrage trades, making the market difficult to sustain.
However, since then, US stocks have recovered all losses and rebounded last week on the back of positive economic data, leading many on Wall Street to conclude that the event was an overreaction to short-term data fluctuations.
In a report last Thursday, JPMorgan Chase analysts stated, "Many market participants view the recent collapse of various crowded trades as an isolated event or flash crash, but we see it as a prelude to future events."
The sell-off this month occurred as US unemployment rates rose, with the Japanese stock market plunging by 12.4%, marking its largest drop since "Black Monday" in 1987, accelerating global stock market sell-offs. The unwinding of yen carry trades became the main culprit shaking global stock markets.
Over the past two years, investors borrowed yen at low interest rates in Japan, and after an unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan, they rushed to sell to meet margin requirements.
Not only JPMorgan Chase analysts, but Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of the private hedge fund Universa Investments, said, "The recent market volatility is just another sign that we are approaching the peak of the largest stock market bubble in history, and most investors are not prepared for the pain that will come when the bubble bursts."
Spitznagel, known for profiting from market crashes, added, "This is a clear danger signal."
JPMorgan Chase analysts predict that despite its size, concerns about arbitrage trades will not be a trigger for future volatility, as many investors are unlikely to return to that strategy after being caught off guard this month.
Analysts stated, "Arbitrage trading may eventually become a problem again, but not everyone will re-engage in these trades due to losses, making it harder to reach previous peaks." They added:
"Instead, we believe that resurfacing growth risks may be the main factor triggering the next market crash."