Intelligence Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points Consensus Reached, Big Players' Financial Reports Strongly Boosted

[Market Analysis]

Today, there was a divergence in the performance of the two markets. The Hong Kong stock market steadily rose with a gap up, closing up by 1.88%, and the trading volume finally broke through one trillion, reaching 101.4 billion. On the other hand, in the A-share market, except for the Shanghai Composite Index being supported by stabilizing funds to maintain in the red, everything else was in decline.

The key reason for the relative weakness in the A-share market lies internally. There are too many historical legacy issues that have not been effectively resolved, and it is still in the stage of rectifying the root causes. Looking at the several new pieces of news today: 1. The China Securities Regulatory Commission: Strengthening the supervision and inspection of record-filing of securities evaluation agencies, with a total of 5 institutions fined 14.8 million yuan; 2. The Supreme People's Court issued typical cases of the people's court serving and guaranteeing the development of new productive forces. 3. The Economic Crime Procuratorate of the Supreme People's Procuratorate recently issued "Answers to Relevant Issues on Handling Financial Fraud Cases," clarifying key issues in the determination of facts and application of law in financial fraud cases. With several departments joining forces to crack down, various illegal activities in the stock market will face severe punishment. Will companies with issues panic and resort to desperate measures?

In contrast, the Hong Kong stock market basically does not have such problems, and its trend mainly follows the external markets. The latest U.S. retail sales in July increased by 1% month-on-month, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of 0.4%, reversing the slowdown trend in June and reaching the highest level in a year and a half. It seems that consumption is still doing well, and the market believes that a "soft landing" has been achieved or is close to achieving a consensus on a 25 basis point rate cut. Asian stock markets opened with a general rise, with the Nikkei 225 index up by 3.6% and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index up by over 2%.

Pan Gongsheng, Party Secretary and President of the People's Bank of China: Speed up the improvement of the central bank's system to continuously promote the high-quality development of finance. He mentioned gradually reducing the focus on quantity targets and paying more attention to the role of price-based regulatory tools such as interest rates. In simple terms, it is precise stimulation to prevent funds from being idle in the financial sector and truly boost the economy. Combined with the Fed's rate cut, it is believed that more precise and effective stimulus measures will be introduced.

Yesterday, it was mentioned that the performance of internet giants was lackluster, causing the Hang Seng Index to stagnate. Today, the situation immediately reversed, with major tech giants' financial reports showing strong performance and all rising. Starting with Alibaba (09988), there are many highlights: Q1 revenue was 243.236 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The market share of Taobao GMV has been stable in the past two quarters, with growth in overseas markets, public cloud, and AI. Additionally, the company will hold a shareholders' meeting on August 22, where relevant proposals will be submitted to shareholders. If approved at the shareholders' meeting, it is expected to complete a dual primary listing in New York and Hong Kong by the end of August. Today, it surged by 4.84%.

The most eye-catching is the JD.com group, JD.com (09618): Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69%. Far exceeding expectations, and raising the full-year profit guidance. Its self-operated and logistics sectors have finally shown results, surging by nearly 9% today. As for JD Logistics (02618): Adjusted net profit in the first half of the year increased by over 26 times year-on-year, with revenue from integrated supply chain customers reaching 41.8 billion yuan, and revenue from external integrated supply chain customers reaching 15.4 billion yuan. The revenue brought in by the self-operated sector is stable and has high gross profit margins, which is its core competitiveness. Today, it surged by nearly 22%. JD Health (06618): The net profit margin in the first half of the year reached 9.3%, which is also benefiting from JD's large platform In addition, another giant Tencent (00700) has received increased holdings from Duan Yongping. Duan Yongping's latest holdings include 9 US stocks: Apple, Berkshire Hathaway B, Google C, Alibaba, Occidental Petroleum, Disney, Moderna, Pinduoduo, and Bank of America. Basically, the homework of a stock market god. Currently, among the giants, only Meituan (03690) has not yet announced its financial report. We have to wait for the board meeting on August 28th. Today, it also rose by more than 5%, and judging from this trend, it should not be bad.

Consumer electronics also reported explosive financial results. High Wealth Electronics (01415) reported a mid-term revenue of USD 586 million, an increase of 59.8% year-on-year; indicating that customer orders have increased significantly. Optimistic about the performance elasticity brought by the introduction of the iPhone rear camera in 24H2, laser radar, VR/AR are also the company's future growth drivers. Today, it rose by 10.87%. Looking at Keep (03650): On August 10th, the company launched its first smart sports watch product, Keep Watch Pilot 1, which can help users master their sports abilities and status, and tailor professional, scientific, comprehensive data recording and sports advice. Considering its significant lead in user activity in the fitness vertical app sector, this product is expected to sell well, and today it also rose sharply by 11.52%.

On August 15th, despite facing intensified competition and the impact of the EU's tariff measures, Chinese car manufacturers such as Xiaopeng (09868), Geely (00175), Xiaomi (01810), etc., have still shown strong growth momentum. It can be seen that EU tariffs are also difficult to fundamentally hinder the progress of Chinese car companies. An important point is that China's overall strength has increased, so external resistance has relatively decreased. At the same time, amidst the external turmoil, cooperation with China is the safest and most reliable. From this perspective, Chinese car companies should not be pessimistic. Funds are actively replenishing. On August 15th, sources revealed that BYD (01211) plans to cooperate with a local manufacturer in Karachi, Pakistan to build a factory. It is reported that the factory is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026, and specific details are still under discussion. It is rumored that BYD will showcase three models planned for sale in Pakistan, including an SUV and a sedan, at a brand launch event scheduled for Saturday local time. BYD plans to introduce more models to this market in the future, including pure electric and plug-in hybrid cars.

On August 15th, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (00570) released an announcement disclosing the latest situation regarding privatization. The announcement stated that as of the joint announcement date, the necessary notifications, filings, or applications related to overseas direct investment approvals have been submitted to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Development and Reform Commission for review and approval; and the necessary notifications, filings, or applications related to anti-monopoly approvals have been submitted to the State Administration for Market Regulation for review and approval. Judging from this trend, the privatization process should speed up. Looking back at the previous privatization at HKD 4.6, the current HKD 4.11 still has some premium.

In addition to the above performance and thematic categories, innovative drug leaders represented by the August gold stock BeiGene (06160) have recently shown fierce trends. Others include China Biologic Products (01177), Fosun Pharma (03933); and the bottomed-out China Grand Pharmaceutical Group (01093), where smallpox, epidemics, etc., occasionally act as catalysts [Sector Focus]

Temporary data provided by the Macao Special Administrative Region Government Tourism Office shows that from January to July, the number of international visitors to Macao was approximately 1.3416 million, a year-on-year increase of 122.0%, recovering to 68.1% of the same period in 2019. According to data released by the Macao Special Administrative Region Government Statistics and Census Bureau, the number of inbound tourists to Macao in the first half of this year exceeded 16 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%. In addition, during the peak summer vacation period in August, temporary data shows that from August 1st to 12th, the number of visitors has exceeded 1.48 million, with a daily average of about 124,000, and the highest single-day number on August 10th reached 154,542.

Data from the Macao Statistics and Census Bureau shows that a total of 702 exhibition and convention events were held in the first half of the year, an increase of 34.5% year-on-year, recovering to 95.6% of the same period in 2019. It is estimated that these events drove non-gaming industry revenue in Macao by approximately MOP 2.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%. In the second quarter, the number of exhibition and convention events in Macao was higher than the same period in 2019, with a total of 368 events, an increase of 27.8% year-on-year. These events drove non-gaming industry revenue in Macao by approximately MOP 1.48 billion, a 20.4% increase year-on-year. After revision, the revenue driven by exhibition and convention events in the first quarter was MOP 990 million.

The gaming sector has experienced a significant decline due to some policy adjustments in the past, and as the proportion of non-gaming activities increases, it may lead to a revaluation. Key stocks to watch: Galaxy Entertainment Group (00027), Sands China Ltd. (01928), Wynn Macau, Limited (01128).

[Stock Analysis]

CRRC Corporation Limited (01766): Signs Contract for High-end EMU Overhaul, Globally Debuts Self-developed High-speed Integral Bogie

According to the announcement, the company signed several contracts in June-July 2024, with a total amount of approximately RMB 45.99 billion. This includes RMB 13.68 billion for high-end EMU overhaul orders, RMB 8.2 billion for freight car orders, RMB 7.53 billion for urban rail vehicle sales and maintenance orders, RMB 7.02 billion for locomotive orders, RMB 6.1 billion for locomotive repair orders, RMB 1.51 billion for power concentration EMU orders, RMB 1.06 billion for wind power equipment orders, RMB 890 million for EMU orders, totaling approximately 19.6% of the company's 2023 operating income.

Analysis: The peak period for high-end EMU overhauls is approaching. From December 2023 to July 2024, contracts for high-end EMU overhauls totaling RMB 28.46 billion were signed. The cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment in railway transportation from 24M1 to 6 is +10.63%, and high passenger traffic is expected to maintain vehicle tenders. Comparatively, the sales contracts for CRRC's EMUs in 2023 were approximately RMB 29.04 billion for the full year, so the contract amount for high-end EMUs in the first half of this year is basically on par with last year. Recently, CRRC's internally developed integral bogie, applied in high-speed EMUs after three years of independent research and development, undoubtedly further enhances its international competitiveness.

Key catalysts: 1) CRRC International Corporation signed a contract to supply 50 sets of internal combustion EMUs to the National Railway Company of Argentina; 2) The company has established a centralized and integrated cloud architecture unified big data center covering CRRC's global business; 3) Controlling shareholder CRRC Group increased its holdings of 5 million A-shares of the company last year, stating that it will continue to increase its holdings of the company's shares according to the plan There may be dividend expectations after the increase. Being included in the FTSE China A50 Index will further attract international capital participation and increase activity.

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