Breakfast | Buffett's Apple holdings halved, Duan Yongping: continue to hold!

Good morning! A wonderful day starts with breakfast.

Monday morning, US stocks continue to decline

On Monday morning, Nasdaq futures fell nearly 1.5%. The Japanese yen rose above the 146 level against the US dollar for the first time since February.

Last Friday, the US July non-farm payroll data fell far below expectations and the previous value, with the unemployment rate reaching a three-year high. Panic selling caused US stocks to plummet again. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 fell more than 10% from their historical highs last week, entering a technical correction phase, with a weekly drop of over 3%. The "fear index" VIX surged to 60% at one point, reaching its highest level since March last year.

Chip stocks fell over 5% and dropped nearly 10% for the week. Intel plummeted by 26%, Amazon fell nearly 13% at one point, while Apple rose against the trend.

Concerns about a US recession significantly increased market bets on interest rate cuts by over 100 basis points this year. US Treasury bonds rose for seven consecutive sessions, with the 10-year Treasury yield plummeting by 19 basis points to a seven-month low on Friday. The US dollar index fell over 1% to a four-month low, the Japanese yen rose by 2% to above 147, the Chinese yuan surged by over 100 basis points, reaching a six-month high.

Demand concerns caused oil prices to drop by over 3% to a six-month low, with a weekly drop of about 5%. Safe-haven gold rose by over 2% for the week. Bitcoin fell by 9% for the week.

Bitcoin plunged by nearly $3,000 late at night, hitting a low of $57,210 and rebounding to around $58,000.

Fu Peng: A systematic review of the "chicken-eating circle" in the US stock market in recent years

Although volatility seems to be decreasing, leverage in the market is increasing, and concentration is becoming more focused. However, don't forget that this valuation expansion is happening against the backdrop of risk-free interest rates exceeding 5.5%. Only when these growth factors truly turn into performance (i.e., selling shovels to dig out gold) can they maintain stability with low volatility in such an environment. Any misses will bring about volatility shocks.

Market Guru "Bearish" on US Stocks? "Bond King" Warns Against Bottom Fishing

"Bond King" Bill Gross stated that there are few bull stocks, and now is the time to sell rather than buy at the bottom. If AI cannot bring about a leap in productivity, growth stocks will underperform value stocks.

Hedge funds "net short" commodities, a first since 2016

This move indicates a cautious outlook on the future economic prospects. With increasing global economic uncertainty, the commodity market may face further pressure.

Stock God's Big Move: Berkshire Hathaway's Apple holdings "halved", record cash on hand, Duane Yongping: No plans to reduce holdings

Buffett "cashes out": Berkshire Hathaway's top holding Apple was "halved", with a "clearance-style sell-off" of the second largest holding Bank of America, resulting in a record cash position.

Duan Yongping responds: "I have no plan to reduce my holdings, unless I am called away. Mainly because I don't know what else to buy after selling now. And in the long run, I can accept the returns that Apple can bring me. Buffett is different, he is a professional investor, so his choices will be more diverse."

Revealed: NVIDIA "Delays Release of New AI Chip Due to Design Flaws"

Tech media The Information reported that Blackwell's large shipments may be delayed until Q1 next year. However, Morgan Stanley believes that this is just an improvement rather than a delay, with the original Blackwell design production starting at the end of the second quarter of 2024 and becoming a larger volume production version by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.

How Significant is the Delay in the Launch of the New AI Chip for NVIDIA? Analysts predict that after the delay in the release of the B200 chip, the selling price may be set between $30,000 and $40,000. The shipment volume by January 2025 is expected to reach around 32,500 units, contributing revenue of $3 billion, accounting for 9% of the total expected revenue for the quarter. Wall Street questions Silicon Valley's extravagant spending, inflating a big bubble for AI; Silicon Valley says: you don't understand, AI is the future. The more tech giants invest in expanding AI capital expenditure, the more beneficial it is for NVIDIA.

Goldman Sachs Exposes Shift of "Smart Money": Hedge Funds Selling North American Stocks, Buying Chinese Stocks

According to Goldman Sachs institutional brokerage data as of last Friday, hedge funds have made their first net purchases of Chinese stocks in three weeks, marking the largest net buying scale in two months; hedge funds have been selling the healthcare sector at the fastest pace since August last year, with non-essential consumer goods being the most bought sector.

Morgan Stanley: Tencent is a "Haven with Catalysts"

Morgan Stanley predicts that Tencent's gaming business is expected to achieve rapid growth in Q2 this year, becoming a leading indicator of the company's future profits exceeding expectations. Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HK$450 for Tencent's Hong Kong shares, 25.6% higher than the closing price on Friday.

Industrial Fulian Performance Bulletin: Net Profit for the First Half of the Year is 8.739 Billion Yuan, a Year-on-Year Increase of 22.04%

Industrial Fulian released its 2024 interim performance bulletin, achieving operating income of 266.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 8.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.04%. The performance growth is mainly due to the strong demand growth for AI servers, strong revenue growth in the company's cloud computing business, and a significant increase in revenue from AI server products. The company will continue to promote the development and application of the AI ecosystem, improve its global production layout, and actively increase research and development investment.

OpenAI-supported "ChatGPT" AI, the Strongest Entity, to be Released on August 6th

Co-founder Brett Adcock of Figure.AI announced that the Figure 02 model will be released on August 6th (around early Tuesday morning Beijing time). Brett did not elaborate much on the new features and technological characteristics of Figure 02, only stating that it will be the most powerful humanoid robot on Earth.

Musk's "Autonomous Driving" Gamble - Dojo

Tech media outlet TechCrunch reported that the core of Dojo's plan is Tesla's proprietary D1 chip, which means Tesla may no longer need to rely on NVIDIA's chips and can obtain a large amount of computing power at a low cost. It is expected that by the end of this year, Dojo1 will achieve online training equivalent to about 8000 H100s.

State Council's Key Focus on "Promoting Service Consumption", 6 Aspects and 20 Key Tasks!

1. Tap into the potential of basic consumption in catering, accommodation, housekeeping services, elderly care, and childcare.
2. Stimulate the vitality of improvement-type consumption in cultural entertainment, tourism, sports, education and training, and residential services.
3. Cultivate and expand new types of consumption such as digital, green, and health.
4. Enhance the momentum of service consumption, innovate service consumption scenarios, strengthen the cultivation of service consumption brands, relax market access in the service industry, and continuously deepen the opening up of the telecommunications and other sectors.
5. Optimize the service consumption environment, strengthen service consumption supervision, guide honest and compliant operations, and improve service consumption standards.
6. Strengthen policy support, enhance financial and taxation support, consolidate the support of talent teams, and improve statistical monitoring capabilities.

Israel Coordinates with the US and UK to Respond to Iran's "Retaliation", with Iran expected to attack Israel as early as August 5th