Understanding the Market | CNOOC Falls Over 5%, Leading the Decline in Oil Stocks. Fourth Quarter Oil Prices May Come Under Pressure, Institutions Say Dividend Trading Heat is Declining
CNOOC and PetroChina stocks continued to decline in the morning session, with oil prices in the fourth quarter likely to come under pressure. The decrease in dividend trading volume may lead to increased scrutiny on the financial condition of dividend stocks. Oil prices may turn around after approaching previous highs, while increased production by oil-producing countries and the outcome of the US election may put pressure on oil prices. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, but domestic macro liquidity is decreasing. Dividend ETF funds are still experiencing net inflows, but the crowding of dividend styles is gradually decreasing
According to the Wise Finance APP, oil stocks continued to fall in the morning session. As of the time of publication, CNOOC (00883) fell by 3.71% to HKD 20.75; PetroChina (00857) fell by 3.35% to HKD 7.21; CNOOC Service (02883) fell by 2.85% to HKD 6.81; Sinopec (00386) fell by 2.45% to HKD 4.77.
Guosen Futures pointed out that entering the third quarter, the bottom-up trend of oil prices remains unchanged. However, due to the accumulation of some upward momentum in the previous period, the momentum of further rise has weakened. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the peak season of oil consumption, the actual destocking situation of commercial oil inventories, and the possibility of oil prices turning after approaching previous highs. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the increase in production by oil-producing countries and the impact of the U.S. election results on energy policies, which may put pressure on oil prices.
Sinolink Securities pointed out that at the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. However, domestic macro liquidity data for June continued to decline. Therefore, the model judges that the dividend style still has excess returns relative to the future market. With the continuous strength of dividends, valuations have increased, and the financial situation of dividend stocks in the interim report season can be observed. In terms of crowding, as the market overall experiences a volume contraction pullback, the crowding of the dividend style is gradually decreasing. In terms of funds, the exposure of northbound funds to the dividend style has decreased, while funds in dividend ETFs continue to see net inflows