Elon Musk supports Donald Trump, what is his intention?

Tesla CEO Musk posted three consecutive posts in support of former US President Trump after the attack.

Tesla's night trading once rose nearly 7%.

On the day before the attack on Trump, Musk was exposed to have donated to Trump's campaign. He has not commented on this yet.

Recently, Musk has formed an "alliance" with Trump. Musk stated at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting that Trump, in an "unexpected" phone call, told him he was a "super fan" of Tesla's new Cybertruck model.

As the largest electric car manufacturer in the United States, how Tesla will benefit from Trump's future new energy policies has also attracted widespread attention.

Trump has never supported electric cars

Musk currently tops the global rich list, with a net worth of $245.7 billion according to Forbes. Tesla is Musk's main source of wealth, with Tesla's stock price soaring over 45% in the past three months.

In addition to Tesla, Musk also owns other tech companies such as SpaceX and social media company X. Especially in the fields of Tesla and SpaceX, they heavily rely on government contracts and federal subsidies, and US energy, electric vehicle, and economic policies will all affect the companies' operations.

Signs of a thaw in the relationship between Trump and Musk appeared in March this year when Trump met Musk and other Republican donors at Mar-a-Lago, but Musk later denied donating to Trump.

Musk recently publicly stated, "Trump does call me often for no reason." Despite opposing subsidies for new energy vehicles, Trump openly claims to be a loyal fan of electric cars and Musk.

This reflects the Trump administration's contradictory attitude between supporting traditional energy and encouraging innovative technology. Although Trump acknowledges Musk's contributions to innovation, calling him a "great genius," he believes that Tesla has received too many government subsidies that should not continue.

Trump's stance on new energy policies is diametrically opposed to Biden's. He does not hide his contempt for electric cars, claiming they are ineffective and will benefit other countries while harming American auto workers.

Last month, Trump once again publicly stated his position to completely reverse Biden's electric car policy. He promised during his campaign that if elected President of the United States, he would immediately repeal Biden's climate bill, increase investment in fossil fuels, and revoke regulations aimed at accelerating the transition to electric vehicles.

In a campaign video released at the end of last year, Trump said, "American energy is weak, substandard, unaffordable because it relies on wind power. Windmills will rust, rot, and kill birds."

Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017, directly leading to Musk's withdrawal from Trump's economic advisory committee, showing their clear differences in climate policy.

During his term, the Trump administration attempted to reduce or eliminate federal tax incentives for purchasing electric cars. These tax incentives are an important policy tool to encourage consumers to buy electric cars. He has also expressed doubts about the electric car market and technology on multiple occasions, believing that there are issues with market demand and actual benefits Tesla or Potential Beneficiary of Trump's Reelection

The Biden administration is providing substantial subsidies for electric vehicles in the United States, making "transition to electric vehicles" one of its top climate and industry policies, and setting a goal to have 50% of new car sales be electric vehicles by 2030.

The "Inflation Reduction Act" issued by the Biden administration is seen as a core policy of the U.S. economy, but Trump has called it the "largest tax increase in history." He criticized Biden's climate policies, accusing them of raising gasoline prices and undermining the achievement of ensuring U.S. "energy independence."

On March 20th this year, the Biden administration announced strict regulations on car tailpipe emissions, which the market refers to as the "strictest car emission regulations in U.S. history." However, the U.S. oil and ethanol industry organizations recently filed a lawsuit to block these emission standards, calling the limits "illegal" and forcing car manufacturers to sell electric vehicles.

Trump's opposition to the development of electric vehicles makes an "alliance" between him and Musk seemingly unlikely. Nevertheless, Musk still chooses to stand with Trump, possibly because Tesla has not benefited from Biden's new energy policies. According to the "Inflation Reduction Act," only new energy vehicles assembled by union workers in North America are eligible for tax credits, excluding most of Tesla's vehicles.

Market analysts believe that under Trump's administration, higher tariffs may be imposed on Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, which could be a good thing for Tesla.

The U.S. market remains Tesla's largest market, with Tesla's revenue share in the U.S. market reaching 47% in 2023. In the second quarter of this year, Tesla's electric vehicles accounted for half of all electric vehicles sold in the United States.

Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, pointed out in a report to clients last week that although Trump's reelection would have an overall negative impact on the electric vehicle industry, it could still be a "potential positive" for Tesla.

Ives explained that if the government cancels the $7,500 federal tax credit for purchasing new electric vehicles, Tesla may have a "significant competitive advantage" and regain market share. Hedge fund Ambienta also believes that Trump's tariff policies may benefit Tesla.

Stephen Dyer, Partner and Managing Director of Aritipo, Co-Head of Greater China, and Head of Automotive and Industrial Products Consulting in the Asia-Pacific region, told Yicai reporters, "Chinese car companies are at the center of the global automotive industry, and U.S. car companies are also concerned that they may lose their competitive advantage again."

(This article is from Yicai)