DataTrek: Tesla's fundamentals are not solid in the short term, with valuation relying more on faith
Tesla's valuation relies mainly on future earnings rather than recent fundamentals. According to DataTrek's research, nearly three-quarters of the top ten companies by stock valuation are based on expectations of future profit growth. Currently, 91% of Tesla's valuation is based on future earnings, making it a "faith-based stock." If Tesla can demonstrate a turnkey autonomous driving car and provide a clear short-term timetable, the market may have a more positive outlook on its future value. However, if details remain unclear, Tesla's stock price may face downside risks. Tesla's stock price dropped 8% last Thursday due to news of delays in the Robotaxi launch
According to a report from DataTrek obtained by Zhitong Finance APP, in the top 10 market cap stocks in the US stock market, nearly three-quarters of the current valuations are based on expectations of future profit growth.
A report from DataTrek Morning Briefing stated that currently, 60% to 90% of the valuations of large US technology stocks are based on future growth expectations, while this ratio for the S&P 500 index is around 55%.
To illustrate this point: General Motors (GM.US) has a stock price ratio based on current value of 209%; Ford (F.US) is at 140%; S&P 500 index is at 45%; Tesla (TSLA.US) is at 9%.
This means that the stock prices of General Motors and Ford are lower than their current value.
Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, wrote in the report: "The market believes that the current profit performance is unsustainable, which is completely reasonable based on their history. Once these companies prove they can generate meaningful profits in an economic downturn, their valuations will increase."
However, for Tesla, 91% of its valuation is based on future earnings, with Colas calling it a "faith-based stock rather than a valuation based on recent fundamentals."
Colas stated, "If Tesla can demonstrate a turnkey autonomous driving car and provide a specific short-term timetable for its launch, the market may estimate a greater future value than it does now," but "if the details provided are unclear, the stock will face the risk of another decline."
It was reported earlier that the release of Robotaxi was scheduled for later this year (now postponed to October). As a result, Tesla's stock price fell more than 8% on Thursday