Who else dares to say that the US stock market will fall? Wall Street's famous short seller analyst gets "kicked out the door"

Zhitong Finance APP learned that before the Independence Day holiday in the United States, market news indicated that Marko Kolanovic, the chief market strategist and famous Wall Street bear who has worked for JPMorgan Chase for 19 years, is about to resign to seek "other opportunities." Kolanovic himself did not respond to any media inquiries, and there have been no updates on his LinkedIn page.

Generally speaking, the unwritten rule in major Wall Street banks is not to lay off employees on Fridays and holidays to avoid causing greater negative impact on their mental well-being. Choosing to lay off employees from Monday to Thursday (avoiding holidays) allows the dismissed employees time to handle related matters, seek career guidance, psychological support, or start looking for new job opportunities before the weekend.

The news of resignation at this time point inevitably leads to various speculations. What kind of major contradiction led to the fact that this 43-year-old veteran of JPMorgan Chase did not receive a decent "farewell" in the end?

The U.S. stock market has been soaring this year, breaking new highs almost every day in recent weeks. The charts of the three major indices are like a sharp sword. Although they did not "pierce" Kolanovic, the pressure on his client base may not be as strong as that of this physics Ph.D.

Sticking to his original intention, Kolanovic reiterated his target last week, giving a year-end target of 4200 points for the S&P 500 index in 2024, the lowest among major Wall Street banks. The index closed at 5147.21 points on July 3, 2024, meaning that to reach his target, the S&P 500 index would need to fall by over 18%.

(The data in the image is up to May 20, 2024, and Goldman Sachs raised its target price to 5600 points this week)

In addition, Kolanovic does not recommend his clients to invest in stocks, especially high-valuation tech stocks. If they must buy, he suggests buying defensive stocks, such as Coca-Cola (KO.US) and Walmart (WMT.US).

Let's take a look at the performance so far this year: Coca-Cola has risen by 9.17%, and Walmart has risen by nearly 31%. At first glance, the investment return from buying stocks according to Kolanovic's advice seems decent. However, without comparison, in recent years, the prominent NVIDIA (NVDA.US) has surged by 783% in the past two years and nearly 160% year-to-date If you had bought NVIDIA with $1000 five years ago, this investment would have turned into $31,000 this year, enough to buy a used BMW in the United States.

Most of the clients served by Colanovic are large institutional investors, hedge funds, wealth management companies, and high-net-worth individuals, in simple terms, wealthy people. Naturally, the investment amount is much more than $1000. If it were you, seeing that you missed out on this opportunity, receiving advice that the US stock market is going to fall, can you not have any opinions in your mind?

Currently, there is no news indicating that JPMorgan Chase plans to modify the target level of the S&P 500 index after Colanovic's departure. However, it seems that Morgan Stanley has already figured out what its clients like to see. The bank announced his successor, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, who favors large-cap growth stocks, will become the new Chief Market Strategist