On the eve of non-farm payrolls, global stock markets continue to hit new highs

With the overnight closure of the US stock market, traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the June non-farm payroll data on Friday evening, in search of clues for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Global stock markets have been on the rise throughout this week.

Asian Stock Markets Open Higher, Nikkei 225 Hits Historic High

On Friday, the Nikkei 225 index opened 0.2% higher, while the TOPIX index opened 0.1% higher, both hitting new highs. The KOSPI in Seoul opened 0.4% higher. Samsung Electronics opened 1.4% higher, with quarterly earnings exceeding expectations.

After a consolidation period of nearly three months, the Nikkei 225 index has started to rise, breaking through the 40,000 mark earlier this week and reaching a historic high of 41,100 in today's early trading session.

Some analysts believe that in the short term, if the Nikkei 225 index closes below 40,000 points, it may indicate a temporary halt to the bullish momentum. However, there is still upward potential in the medium term.

European Stock Markets Also See Broad Gains

On Thursday, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.83%, marking a second consecutive day of gains. Earlier polls indicated that Marine Le Pen's National Rally and its allies would not secure a majority.

The German DAX index also rose by 0.4% and has crossed above the 50-day moving average (SMA), continuing its rebound from the lows in June, with the next target at 18,892 points, the high point in May.

The UK's FTSE 100 index also surged by 0.8%. On the evening of the 4th local time, the exit polls for the UK House of Commons elections showed that the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer would win a majority, potentially bringing positive effects to the UK stock and bond markets based on historical experience (source).

"Mini Non-Farm" and Disappointing ISM Services PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls as Key Signal for Fed Decision

Some economists predict that there will be an increase of 200,000 non-farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4%. They also expect hourly wages to grow by 0.3% compared to May.

Traders are also considering whether a series of recent economic data releases indicate a softening of the US economy and how this might impact the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions.

On Wednesday, the US released the "mini non-farm" ADP employment data for June, showing lower-than-expected growth in private sector wages and higher-than-expected weekly jobless claims. Additionally, the US June ISM Services PMI significantly missed expectations?LPL Financial global strategist Quincy Krosby pointed out that, given data indicating a cooling U.S. economy, Friday's non-farm payroll data may be crucial for the Federal Reserve as it seeks reasons to signal loose monetary policy, with the non-farm data helping to clarify the fundamental state of the labor market.

St. James's Place Chief Investment Officer Justin Onuekwusi also stated, "With the June ISM services falling to 48.8, hitting the lowest level since the pandemic began, and the worsening initial jobless claims, negative data is ultimately seen as a positive for the market. September feels like the date everyone is focusing on right now."