US stock market closed, European stocks rise together, European bonds fall together, cryptocurrency flash crash, oil prices continue to rise

The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut continues to rise, boosting risk appetite sentiment. European stocks have risen for two consecutive days, with French and British indices both up over 0.8%, led by bank stocks.

The UK will hold a general election on Thursday, with multiple polls indicating that the Labour Party is likely to win with an overwhelming advantage, ending the Conservative Party's 14-year rule. The FTSE 100 index has extended its gains for two consecutive days, while the pound remains steady. Post-voting exit polls suggest that the Labour Party is expected to win 410 seats (out of a total of 650) and form the next UK government. Currently, the pound is experiencing slight fluctuations against the US dollar.

As the polls indicate that Marine Le Pen is likely to lose the majority of seats in the French National Assembly elections. The French CAC 40 index has expanded its gains, with the euro strengthening.

The latest meeting minutes from the Fed and the ECB both indicate that while confidence in the inflation outlook has strengthened, policymakers recognize that the battle against inflation is not yet over. The exact rate at which inflation will return to target remains uncertain, increasing the uncertainty surrounding central bank policy outlook. Looking ahead, traders continue to focus on Friday's US non-farm payroll data for clues on the rate cut prospects of the ECB and the Fed. The market expects an addition of 190,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4%.

European Stocks Rise for Two Consecutive Days, French and British Indices Up Over 0.8%

European stocks rose on Thursday, with French and British indices up over 0.8%, and the Dutch index hitting a record high at the close:

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.56% to 517.54 points. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index rose by 0.44% to 4987.48 points. The FTSE All-World 300 index rose by 0.52%.

The German DAX 30 index rose by 0.41%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.83%, the Italian FTSE MIB index rose by 0.77%, the Spanish IBEX 35 index rose by 0.09%, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.86%.

The Dutch AEX index rose by 0.40% to 934.82 points, breaking the previous closing record high of 933.84 points set on June 20th, with a cumulative rebound of 1.28% over the past three trading days.

Most sectors in the European STOXX 600 index rose, with the banking sector leading with a 1.3% increase, and the automotive sector up by 0.76%, achieving two consecutive gains.

In the European stock market, on Wednesday, a Harvard "ENT" doctor's research report showed that Novo Nordisk's popular weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy carry a higher risk of vision loss for patients. However, some doctors point out that further large-scale verification is still needed in more hospitals. Dragged down by this news, Novo Nordisk's stock price opened lower on Thursday at a daily low of 974.50, but eventually closed up by 0.26%, resilient to the impact of the Harvard research report In addition, Novartis rose by 1.18%, while Sanofi, AstraZeneca, LVMH Group, L'Oreal, GlaxoSmithKline, and Nestle rose by 0.85% to 0.43%. Asmacorp fell by 0.16%, and German SAP fell by 0.34%, while Roche fell by 0.89%.

Among the stocks with significant fluctuations:

Danish weight-loss drug company Zealand rose by 5.4%, reaching a new closing high.

Automotive parts giant Continental Group in Germany rose by 9.54%, leading the STOXX 600 index in Europe. This was because Citigroup analysts upgraded the stock to "buy" and pointed out its strong performance in the automotive business in the second quarter, driving up the automotive sector. The stock prices of Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche each rose by over 1%.

Meal kit service company Hellofresh rose by 10%, with a weekly cumulative increase of nearly 33%. JPMorgan removed the company from its "negative catalyst watchlist," believing that there will be unfavorable factors to drive its decline as meal kit consumption in North America stabilizes.

Eurozone bond yields rise, with 10-year German and UK bond yields up more than 2 basis points

At the close, Eurozone bond yields generally rose. The 10-year German bond yield, as the Eurozone benchmark, rose by 2.3 basis points to 2.608%. The 2-year German bond yield rose by 2.4 basis points to 2.943%.

In addition, the 10-year French government bond yield rose by 2.9 basis points, the 10-year Italian government bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points, the 10-year Spanish government bond yield rose by 1.8 basis points, and the 10-year Greek government bond yield rose by 1.9 basis points. The 10-year UK government bond yield increased by 2.7 basis points to 4.198%.

On Thursday, France held its second bond issuance since President Macron announced snap elections, further indicating that market concerns about French fiscal risks are easing. From a data perspective, the yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds has significantly narrowed, from a high of 86 basis points last week to 68 basis points.

Analyst Onuekwusi from Saint James pointed out, "The market is clearly more confident about the political risks in France. Investors currently see investment value in the French market because Macron has formed a partnership with the left-wing alliance, which helps avoid vote splitting, benefiting both the second round of elections and the bond market."

US Dollar Index falls by over 0.2%, cryptocurrency market crashes, with a total market value evaporating over 500 billion yuan

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, fell by 0.25% to 105.137 points.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.26% to 1262.58 points.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) against the US dollar rose by 93 points to 7.2939 yuan, trading overall in the range of 7.3050-7.2917 yuan during the session In Asian currencies, the US dollar fell 0.25% against the Japanese yen to 161.28, with a significant decline around 09:00 Beijing time, possibly related to intervention by the Japanese authorities, stabilizing around 161.95 on July 3.

The euro rose 0.23% against the US dollar, the British pound rose 0.14% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.16% against the Swiss franc. Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar rose 0.3% against the US dollar, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.23% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.2% against the Canadian dollar.

Most mainstream cryptocurrencies fell. The largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell 2.18% to $58,520.00, the lowest level since May 1, dropping below $57,000 during the day. The second-largest Ethereum fell 4.33% to $3,135.00.

Before the US stock market opened, Bitcoin was heavily sold off, with prices plummeting to refresh daily lows, hitting a low of $56,976 per coin, breaking below $57,000, before partially recovering. Other cryptocurrencies were not spared, with Ethereum falling by over 5% in 24 hours, and Dogecoin falling by 10% in 24 hours. According to Coinglass data, over the past 24 hours, over 130,000 people were liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with a total liquidation amount of $375 million (approximately RMB 2.71 billion), including $341 million in long liquidations and $34.19 million in short liquidations.

China Securities Journal pointed out that this flash crash was mainly due to the failure of the market rumor that "Ethereum spot ETF will officially start trading on July 4." In addition, the latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve reiterated a wait-and-see stance, indicating the need for more information to gain confidence in rate cuts.

CoinGecko data shows that the total market value of cryptocurrencies has fallen below $2.3 trillion, with a 24-hour decline of 3.4%, evaporating over $78.2 billion (approximately RMB 568.5 billion) in market value. In addition, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of $20.5 million yesterday (July 3, US Eastern Time).

Brent Oil Maintains Above $87, Reaching Highest Level Since April

Affected by the decrease in US crude oil inventories, international crude oil futures continued to rise on Thursday. Brent September crude oil futures closed up $0.09, or 0.10%, at $87.43 per barrel, hitting the highest closing price since April. WTI August crude oil futures did not have closing data due to the US financial markets being closed, but rose by about 0.21% at the time of writing, reaching an 11-week high.

At the lowest point of the day, US oil fell by over 1% to $83.02 per barrel, while Brent oil fell by nearly 1% to $86.51 per barrel. At the highest point of the day, US oil rose by nearly 0.37% to $84.19 per barrel, and Brent oil rose by nearly 0.29%, reaching above $87.5 per barrel during the day Brent Crude Oil Futures in September

Analysis indicates that the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories implies growing oil demand, and the anticipation of a rate cut due to weak U.S. economic data is expected to continue to boost oil prices.

On the other hand, on Thursday evening local time, geopolitical tensions escalated as the Israeli military claimed to have attacked multiple military buildings of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Earlier that day, the Israeli military claimed that Hezbollah attacked the northern part of Israel, resulting in the death of an Israeli military officer. Martin King, an energy analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland, stated: "People are paying attention to the physical market and geopolitical situation. Traders are also watching the Gaza war as well as elections in France and the UK."

Furthermore, the latest reports indicate that Hurricane "Beryl" is impacting the U.S. oil industry, leading to the emergency evacuation of drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico by several energy giants including Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil. According to estimates from the National Hurricane Center and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, it is expected that approximately 73,000 barrels per day of federal offshore oil production areas will be directly affected by this storm. However, some major drilling platforms such as ExxonMobil's Hoover platform, Occidental Petroleum's Boomvang platform, and Shell's Perdido platform have fortunately avoided the storm's path, and it is expected that the oil production from these platforms will not suffer significant losses.

In addition, Saudi Aramco has lowered the flagship Arab Light crude oil price sold to Asia in August to be $1.80 per barrel higher than the Oman/Dubai average.

UBS predicts that with decreasing inventories, crude oil prices may rise to $90 per barrel this quarter. Strategist Giovanni Staunovo stated that due to strong demand and limited supply growth, oil inventories have started to decline, and investors have begun to increase their oil exposure again. The bank expects that as OPEC+ continues to cut production this quarter, the "decline in oil inventories will intensify" in the coming weeks. OPEC crude oil exports decreased in June and may remain low this month. Oil demand is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day this year.

Gold prices slightly fell, London copper rose for five consecutive days, London aluminum fell by over 1%

COMEX August gold futures fell by about 0.16% to $2365.7 per ounce at the close; COMEX July silver futures fell by about 0.53% to $30.68 per ounce at the close.

In early Asian trading, spot gold rose by 0.27% or $6.41, breaking above the $2360 level. Spot silver rose by a maximum of 0.29%, approaching the $30.60 level. However, gold and silver continued to decline, with spot gold falling by nearly 0.23% or $5.33 at the lowest point, and spot silver falling by nearly 1% as European stock markets hit daily lows.

London industrial base metals generally fell:

The "Copper Doctor" indicator rose by $14 to $9882 per ton, with a cumulative increase of over 3.84% since the closing on June 27th. LME Aluminum fell by $26, a decrease of 1.02%. LME Zinc fell by $4 to $2986 per ton. LME Lead rose by $4 to $2226 per ton. LME Nickel fell by $106 to $17217 per ton. LME Tin fell by $205 to $33158 per ton.

In addition, Shanghai Lead night trading rose by over 1%, while Shanghai Nickel fell by 1.1%