Will the US job market suddenly deteriorate? On the eve of non-farm payrolls, tonight's data is attracting attention

As the Federal Reserve weighs when to cut interest rates, whether the job market is cooling down has become a key issue. This week's data may reveal clues, with initial jobless claims data set to be released on Wednesday evening and the non-farm payroll report due on Friday.

Tonight at 8:30, the US Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims from last week. According to economists surveyed by FactSet, for the week ending June 29, the number of initial jobless claims is expected to rise slightly from the previous week's 233,000 to 235,000. This potential upward trend may indicate a cooling job market.

Tracking the number of initial jobless claims each week can promptly reflect changes in the job market. If this data continues to rise, it may indicate an increase in layoffs or a slowdown in hiring, which could impact the overall economy.

Currently, the market is concerned about whether US employment will deteriorate sharply, leading to an economic recession.

This week's employment data is crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. The Fed is seeking solid evidence that inflation is falling back towards the 2% target before considering a rate cut. A weak job market will curb demand for goods and services, helping the Fed control inflation.

Data released on Tuesday showed that job openings in May exceeded economists' expectations, which seems contradictory to the expected cooling of the labor market, adding complexity to the Fed's decision-making.

The most anticipated employment report this week is the June non-farm payroll data. The market currently expects a sharp drop in new job additions in June to 188,000, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4% and wage growth slightly easing to 0.3% month-on-month.

It is worth noting that the unemployment rate has risen from a historic low of 3.4% a year ago to 4% in May, approaching what economists consider full employment levels. Historically, once the unemployment rate rises half a percentage point from a recent low, it will continue to rise significantly, leading the economy into a recession.

Nick Timiraos, a financial journalist known as the "New Fed Wire," has warned that even if the labor market cools down slowly, the US economy may still fall into a recession.

Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist at LPL Financial, believes:

Vacancies for high-paying positions are decreasing, a sign of early cooling in the labor market. As long as the job market remains stable, consumers will maintain a certain level of spending power, and the argument for a soft landing still seems valid.

However, if the labor market remains strong, the Fed will face greater challenges in trying to bring the inflation rate down to the 2% target