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On July 1st, financial journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed News Agency," stated on social media that according to a report from Goldman Sachs, survey results from American households indicate that the unemployment rate is about 0.1-0.2 percentage points higher than what the U.S. Department of Labor has reported. The lower job search rate and higher quit rate are driving this increase.

However, Goldman Sachs mentioned that this may not necessarily be a signal of a "worrying deterioration in the labor market," as this indicator aligns with stable wage growth and lower layoff rates, which mitigates the risks of triggering unemployment, income loss, and further job losses, a vicious cycle that typically occurs during an economic recession.

U.S. non-farm data shows that the unemployment rate has risen from a historic low of 3.4% a year ago to 4% in May, approaching the level of full employment as economists perceive it. However, historically, once the unemployment rate rises half a percentage point from a recent low point, it tends to continue to rise significantly, leading the economy into a recession. Recently, Nick Timiraos wrote that even if the labor market cools down slowly, the U.S. economy may still fall into a recession.