One heavy event after another, is Tesla's stock price expected to recover with the trend?

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, Tesla (TSLA.US) is set to announce its second-quarter delivery status this week, which is an event of great interest to investors. However, in the next month or so, there may be more events that could impact Tesla's stock price.

Delivery Report

Tesla typically announces global delivery figures on the second day of the new quarter. The latest forecasts from Wall Street indicate that Tesla's car deliveries in the second quarter are expected to be around 420,000 units, lower than the approximately 466,000 units in the same period last year. Delivery volume may decline year-on-year for the second consecutive quarter.

Analysts have been concerned about Tesla's delivery expectations due to worries about consumer demand and registration data from Europe and China.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated in a research report, "Tesla will announce its second-quarter delivery data to end a very turbulent first half of the year for this Musk-led company. Weak electric vehicle demand has always been a top issue for Tesla and other electric vehicle companies."

Barclays has lowered its Tesla delivery forecast to 415,000 units, marking an 11% year-on-year decline. After predicting a delivery of 533,000 cars in the second quarter a few months ago, RBC Capital Markets has revised its forecast down to 410,000 units. Meanwhile, UBS has set the delivery expectation at 420,000 units.

In comparison, Tesla delivered 386,810 cars in the first quarter and 466,140 cars in the second quarter of the previous year. Tesla's highest delivery volume in a quarter was in the fourth quarter of 2023, with 484,507 units delivered.

Regionally, Tesla's issues in the European market seem particularly severe. According to registration tracker data, Tesla's delivery volume this year has decreased by over 60,000 units compared to the record-breaking year of 2023. As most of the gap occurred in the past few months, Tesla's second quarter in the European market will be very challenging.

China remains one of Tesla's most important markets. Last month, Tesla's sales in China have been improving due to new incentive measures taken by the government.

Ives mentioned that with the growth in the Chinese market, Tesla's delivery volume in the second quarter may see a "slight rebound."

"Looking at the second quarter, we have seen some signs of stabilization in Tesla's pricing over the past few months, as most of the price cuts seem to be in the past now."

The situation in the U.S. market is relatively opaque. Tesla has also implemented incentives in the U.S., and recently, the Model 3 long-range version has received federal tax credits, which may help narrow the gap between delivery volume expectations and actual sales.

Robotaxi Debut Day

Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock price has been continuously low, but in the past two weeks, the stock has risen by about 10%. This price trend seems to indicate that investors are paying more attention to other developments of Tesla to some extent.

Indeed, delivery data is important for an automotive company, but investors also focus on the future. Robert W. Baird analyst Ben Kallo said, "Compared to the first quarter of 2024, when investors were focused on overly high short-term delivery expectations, we now see more and more investors shifting their focus to the Robotaxi event on August 8th and opportunities related to FSD." He expects that before the release of Robotaxi, investors' focus will still lean towards the long term, which may include details of the next generation of low-cost cars for the masses.

Ives stated, "We believe that the Robotaxi debut on August 8th will be a key historical moment in Tesla's story, and we see it as the next catalyst."

Tesla will hold an investor event on August 8th, where the company will detail its plans to utilize its autonomous driving software and technology. CEO Musk referred to autonomous driving cars as a trillion-dollar opportunity, and judging from the recent trend of Tesla's stock price, investors seem to be excited about it as well.

Ives added, "Ultimately, the key to achieving a valuation of over a trillion dollars is Tesla's vision for autonomous driving, and with the latest FSD (version) and the ongoing FSD testing in China, Tesla seems to be turning the tide." Ives rates Tesla as "Buy" and sets the target price at $275.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas also rates the stock as "Buy" with a target price of $310. The analyst is excited about the potential of Tesla's emerging robotics business. It is reported that Tesla is developing a robot that is trained using AI-based computing.

In a recent report, Jonas wrote, "Our view on Tesla is that it is both a car stock and an energy, AI/robotics company. In fact, the valuation of our core automotive business ($67 per share) accounts for only about 20% of our $310 target price."

However, for UBS, the bank is more skeptical about whether the Robotaxi event will immediately become a catalyst for Tesla's stock price. Nevertheless, the bank believes that Tesla has made good technological progress in Robotaxi and the Optimus plan, and is more likely than most companies to leverage AI in the physical world, which is considered to have greater benefits for the financial model.

Other Major Events

Analysts are not only focusing on second-quarter delivery data. However, to some extent, these data are still important. The options market implies that after Tesla releases its delivery report, the stock price will rise or fall by 5%. After the past four reports were released, the stock price has on average risen or fallen by about 3% After Tesla announced that its first-quarter deliveries were lower than expected, the stock price fell by nearly 5%.

The second-quarter financial report is expected to be released a few weeks after the delivery data, and this event may have an even greater impact on the stock price. Over the past four quarters, Tesla's stock price has on average risen or fallen by 11% after the financial reports were released.

This financial report will once again bring the automotive gross margin into focus. It is worth noting that Tesla's recent performance records show that the number of quarters with performance below general expectations exceeds those with performance exceeding expectations.

As of last Friday's close, Tesla's stock price has fallen by 20% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 index has risen by approximately 18% during the same period. Slowing sales growth and declining profit expectations have dampened investor sentiment