Next week's heavy schedule: US non-farm payrolls, UK and France elections, Powell's speech, World Artificial Intelligence Conference

A summary of major financial events from July 1st to July 5th, all in Beijing time:

Highlights of the week: Will the US June non-farm payrolls cool significantly as expected, Powell and Lagarde will speak at the European Central Bank forum, multiple countries will release PMI data, and the Fed will publish the latest meeting minutes. In addition, pay attention to the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, as well as the UK and France elections.

US June Non-Farm Payrolls

On Friday, the US Department of Labor will release the June non-farm payrolls, as well as hourly wages, unemployment rate, and other data.

Against the backdrop of May's non-farm payrolls far exceeding expectations at 272,000, analysts expect the number of new jobs added in June to plummet to 188,000, with the June unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4%, and wage growth to slightly decrease to 0.3% month-on-month.

A report from Morgan Stanley predicts that non-farm employment growth in June will slow to 210,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.0%. This change is attributed to the dual impact of labor supply and demand, with the decrease in labor supply mainly due to a slowdown in immigration inflows, while the decrease in demand is reflected in reduced job vacancies and an increase in new unemployment claims.

At the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expects to cut interest rates once this year. Federal funds rate futures show that the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in July is only 10%, with the possibility of the Fed remaining "on hold" in September close to 40%. If the employment report highlights a slowdown in the labor market, investors may increase their bets on a rate cut.

Fed Governor Brainard pointed out that the current labor market conditions are similar to those before the outbreak of the pandemic, tense but not overheated. She also mentioned that there is data indicating that last year's job growth may have been exaggerated, and this situation may continue this year.

Earlier, the California Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) released a report in June titled "Latest Early Employment Revisions Show No Net Job Growth in 2023", indicating that California almost did not achieve net job growth in 2023 (only adding 9,000 jobs throughout the year), suggesting that US job growth in 2023 may have been artificial.

Ahead of the non-farm report, the "mini non-farm" ADP data will also be released at 20:15 on the evening of July 3rd.

Powell, Lagarde Speeches at European Central Bank Forum

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and Brazilian Central Bank Governor Neto will speak at the European Central Bank forum Recently, global central banks have once again adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts. As major central banks face more persistent inflation than expected, the anticipated wave of rate cuts starting in 2024 has not arrived. Pay attention to statements from Powell and Lagarde regarding inflation and the outlook for rate cuts.

After Canada began cutting interest rates, inflation rebounded, with the year-on-year CPI in May rising by 2.9%, higher than the 2.7% increase in April. The market generally believes that this rebound in inflation has added uncertainty to whether the Bank of Canada will continue its rate cut in July.

Meanwhile, inflation in Australia has also rebounded, with the weighted CPI year-on-year growth rate reaching 4% in May, higher than the market's general expectation of 3.8%. Deutsche Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.6% in August.

In addition, despite the ECB's first rate cut, ECB board member Kazimir stated that he still sees significant risks of rising inflation and expects another rate cut later this year.

French Election

The first round of French parliamentary elections will be held on June 30, with the second round on July 7. Recent polls show that the far-right party National Rally leads other parties in support.

The latest polls show that French people's satisfaction with President Macron remains at a recent low, further raising alarms about the uncertain prospects of the French government's decision-making authority. On Friday, June 28, local time, a poll conducted by market research firm Toluna-Harris Interactive for the French news channel LCI TV showed that Macron's support rate dropped by 6 percentage points from the previous survey to 36%, the lowest since March.

French stocks and bonds pay tribute in advance, as the election approaches, the French stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are shrouded in gloom, with the bond market experiencing the most severe collapse in sovereign debt crisis, the stock market suffering nearly $200 billion in losses, the CAC 40 index hitting a new low since January, and companies selling junk bonds to lock in funds.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference

The 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence is about to open. This year, the forum will be held from July 4th to 6th, with the exhibition running from July 4th to 7th. The conference will focus on the theme of "Promoting Shared Development through Consultation and Promoting Good Governance for Beneficial Intelligence," creating four major sections: "Conference Forum, Exhibition Display, Award Competition, Intelligent Experience."

The conference forum will be presented in a new way according to the "1+3+X" architecture, including one opening ceremony and plenary session, three main forums on global governance, industry development, and scientific frontiers, as well as several industry forums covering ten key topics such as AI ethics governance, large models, data, computing power, embodied intelligence, AI for Science, new industrialization, autonomous driving, investment and financing, education and talent.

Among them, large models remain a hot topic and one of the ten key topics of the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference. Responsible persons from AI large model demand and supply enterprises such as State Grid, Baosight Software, iFLYTEK, Huawei, and Softtek will discuss "Innovative Models and Practices for the Application and Industry Implementation of AI Large Models in China." Keynote Speech on This Topic

2024 Global Digital Economy Conference

The main venue of the 2024 Global Digital Economy Conference will be held at the National Convention Center from July 2nd to 5th. With the theme "Opening a New Era of Digital Intelligence, Sharing a New Future of Digitalization," this conference will feature an activity framework of "1+6+3+N," including an opening ceremony and main forum, six high-level forums, three brand-specific activities, as well as multiple thematic forums and series of events.

Li Auto 2024 Smart Driving Summer Launch Event

Li Auto officially announced that it will hold a summer launch event on intelligent driving on the evening of July 5th. At this event, the enhancement of Li Auto's NOA capability, new developments in intelligent driving products, and the technical solutions for achieving true autonomous driving will be the focus of discussions.

Li Auto's Chairman and CEO, Li Xiang, previously revealed that the upcoming nationwide NOA without maps, as well as plans to introduce a supervised autonomous driving system based on 3 million Clips trained end-to-end + VLM (Visual Language Model) to test users. It is expected that by the end of this year to early next year, they will launch a supervised autonomous driving system trained on over 10 million Clips.

UK General Election

British Prime Minister Sunak suddenly announced on May 22nd that a parliamentary lower house election will be held on July 4th. This date was kept strictly confidential before the announcement, as the general expectation was for the election to be scheduled in the autumn. Traditionally, general elections in the UK are held at least once every 5 years, but at any time within a 5-year term, the Prime Minister can call for an election.

However, British media recently revealed "scandals," with several political and law enforcement personnel suspected of betting on the date of the parliamentary lower house election, currently under investigation by the Gambling Commission, especially Sunak's "inner circle" frequently betting on the election date.

US Stock Market Closed for Independence Day

Due to the US Independence Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day on July 4th, with an early closure the day before. Goldman Sachs fund flow experts warn that after July 4th, bullish positions in the US stock market may start to unwind, and by the run-up to the elections in August, there may be risks of capital outflows.

Release of PMI Data in Multiple Countries

During the week, multiple countries including China, Germany, France, the EU, the UK, and the US will release PMI data. South Korea, Japan, and Germany will release the final value of the June Manufacturing PMI on Monday, while the US will announce the June ISM Manufacturing Index on the same day. China will release its Caixin PMI data for June, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May rising to 51.7, reaching a new high since July 2022; the Services PMI was at 54, hitting a new high since August 2023.

750 Billion Yuan Reverse Repos Due

Wind data shows that the People's Bank of China will have 750 billion yuan of reverse repos due next week, with larger amounts maturing on Tuesday and Wednesday, totaling 500 billion yuan on Monday, 3000 billion yuan on Tuesday, 2500 billion yuan on Wednesday, 1000 billion yuan on Thursday, and 500 billion yuan on Friday

IPO Opportunities

During the week of July 1st to July 5th, there were no new listings on the A-share market, but there was 1 new stock available for subscription.

Qiaofeng Intelligence started its subscription on July 1st and will be listed on the ChiNext board, with a total issuance of approximately 30.19 million shares, expecting to raise 1.445 billion yuan.

In the Hong Kong stock market, Yuanxu Technology will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 2nd. The company is a precision engineering service provider headquartered in Singapore, specializing in precision machining and welding services for semiconductor and other international companies in various sectors. Zhonggan Communication and Jingfa Property will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 3rd.

During the week, a total of 23 new funds (combining Class A and Class C) were issued.