This July is "extremely crucial" for the US stock market

The U.S. stock market ended the first half of the year strongly, but whether the upward trend can continue is the key.

Since the low point in late October last year, the U.S. stock market has rebounded by more than 33%, with the S&P 500 index hitting new closing highs several times. However, after reaching new highs, investors began to sell off and take profits, leading to a cumulative decline of about 0.5% in the S&P.

This reflects the "fragility" behind the strong upward momentum of the U.S. stock market. On Friday, the U.S. released the May PCE price index, which hit a three-year low, but the market reacted tepidly, with the S&P closing slightly up by 0.09% on that day. This may indicate that the market has almost fully priced in the expectations of interest rate cuts over the past few months.

Furthermore, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P is still as high as 21 times, at historically high levels.

Therefore, for the U.S. stock market to continue its upward trend, more certain expectations of interest rate cuts and higher profit guidance are needed.

Focus on July: CPI, FOMC Meeting

In the next month, the June CPI and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in June will be key factors affecting the trend of the U.S. stock market.

On July 11th, the U.S. will release the June CPI data.

According to economists surveyed by FactSet, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in June is expected to be 3.1%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month's 3.3%. If the data meets expectations, it will further support the Fed's rate cut, potentially leading to an earlier rate cut, which is positive for the U.S. stock market.

On July 30th-31st, the Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting and announce the latest rate decision.

Currently, the market generally expects the Fed to continue to "stand pat" and keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.5%. Any comments by Powell on the rate path after the meeting will be the focus of the market.

Walter Zimmerman, Chief Technical Strategist at ICAP Technical Analysis, said:

"The endless wait for a Fed rate cut can definitely last the entire summer."

Focus on the Support Level of 5200-5300

The stock market data at the beginning of this year indicates that when the S&P retraces to the range of 5200-5300, buying interest will increase and provide support.

Zimmerman believes that if the S&P falls back to this range in July, investors' buying behavior will be an important indicator of market confidence. If buying interest does not significantly increase, it may indicate that the market is no longer optimistic about the stock market outlook.

In addition, some views point out that the 50-day moving average of the S&P is also crucial (closing at 5269 points as of Friday's close). Generally, the S&P tends to find support at this average line, but when it falls below this line, it often leads to further declines

According to FactSet data, in the past three years, the S&P has fallen below the average level multiple times, continuing to decline before hitting bottom, with three instances of double-digit drawdowns