AI transforms into "electricity-eating behemoth" bringing new opportunities, Morgan Stanley firmly bullish on Tesla
Tesla's demand for electricity brought by the artificial intelligence boom will make it a more important player in the U.S. energy market. Morgan Stanley predicts that Tesla's energy business is expected to increase $3.95 billion in after-tax net operating profit by 2030, with earnings per share exceeding $1. Morgan Stanley values Tesla's energy business at $130 billion, giving it an "overweight" rating with a target price of $310
According to the VESYNC APP, Morgan Stanley believes that due to the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) leading to increased electricity demand, Tesla (TSLA.US) will become a more significant player in the U.S. energy market.
Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that by 2030, the electricity consumption of U.S. data centers may be equivalent to that of 150 million electric vehicles. In other words, from 2023 to 2027, the projected growth in electricity consumption of U.S. data centers is equivalent to adding 59 million electric vehicles on U.S. roads, or a 21% increase in the total number of vehicles in operation. Tesla is seen to have a unique advantage to benefit from investments in the U.S. grid, with the significant demand for AI processing and data centers accelerating this investment.
Morgan Stanley analysts stated, "We forecast that the growth rate of the energy storage business (compound annual growth rate of 29% from 2020 to 2040) will outpace the solar business (compound annual growth rate of 24% from 2020 to 2040), and the profit margin will also be higher than the core automotive business, with the inflection point occurring in 2023."
Assuming an operating profit margin of 16.2% and a tax rate of 25%, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that by 2030, Tesla's energy business could potentially increase its after-tax net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) by $3.95 billion, exceeding $1 per share in earnings. While Tesla is gradually becoming a direct competitor to Fluence Energy (FLNC.US), the growth rate of the energy storage market is sufficient for both companies to benefit.
Morgan Stanley values Tesla's energy business at $130 billion, equivalent to $36 per share. Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on Tesla, with an "overweight" rating and a target price of $310.
Overall, Wall Street analysts are not as optimistic about Tesla's prospects, with a "hold" rating and an average target price of $174.60.
As of the time of writing, Tesla is up 0.63% at $183.736. The stock has fallen 26% year-to-date