If Trump wins the presidential election, will the U.S. real estate market face a major change?

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, experts and recent data suggest that the potential election of former U.S. President Trump may reshape the U.S. real estate market amid soaring mortgage rates and continuously rising house prices.

The current real estate market, characterized by high borrowing costs over the past 20 years and record-breaking house prices, is making it difficult for many Americans to afford homes. As the presidential election approaches, industry experts are studying how Trump's policies - from deregulation to tax and trade measures - may impact market dynamics, alleviate some pressure, but also bring new risks.

A survey released on Monday by the U.S. National Mortgage News shows that despite many mortgage professionals favoring the Republican Party, the market consensus indicates that whoever wins the next presidential election may not bring significant changes to lending institutions and mortgage activities.

Bose George, Managing Director of Keefe, Bruyette and Woods (KBW), said in an interview, "We do not believe the election will have any significant impact on the mortgage industry."

His view reflects widespread skepticism about the president's influence on key economic levers, especially interest rates. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve without any direct political intervention.

However, in April this year, reports indicated that members of Trump's campaign team were devising a plan that would restructure the Federal Reserve under Trump's leadership (if he wins in November) and give him the power to make interest rate decisions.

Such changes would be significant for the former president, who had attempted to influence the Fed's rate decisions during his previous term.

The survey suggests that apart from interest rates, policy nuances under Trump's potential leadership may create a less burdensome regulatory environment. During Trump's previous term, his administration was known for deregulation, and some believe this could once again bring a more business-friendly environment but also raise concerns about risks from insufficiently regulated financial activities.

Critics point out that loosening lending standards could exacerbate market volatility.

Regarding leadership in housing agencies, Trump's appointments may signal a shift towards less aggressive regulation. Observers such as Bill Killmer, Senior Vice President of Legislative and Political Affairs at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), suggest that the Trump administration may follow a less interventionist stance similar to previous Republican appointees, strictly focusing on statutory authority rather than delving into the "gray areas" often explored by Democratic appointees.

The investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice into the Real Estate Brokers Commission, restarted in the final year of Trump's presidency, is also seen as a potential relaxation under Republican government leadership.

These changes in the field could impact the outlook for real estate transactions and potentially alleviate some pressure on the Real Estate Brokers Commission.

George of KBW stated in the report, "If you see a change in government back to Republican rule, I do think you will see the U.S. Department of Justice less active in this area. So, this could change the way they push things forward." In addition, the government's control over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may change during Trump's second term. Trump has previously advocated ending their government conservatorship, indicating that they may move in that direction again.

However, experts, including former Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Mark Calabria, warn that achieving full privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be a complex and lengthy process.

Finally, regarding tax policy, a survey shows that the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" signed by Trump in 2017 will expire in 2025. While Biden is prepared to let this tax cut expire, Trump advocates extending the deadline, believing that expiration could harm the economy.

Killmer pointed out that regardless of the election results, legislative action is necessary to maintain incentives for real estate investment. However, citing data from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the survey states that extending tax cuts will increase the federal deficit by $4.6 trillion