Goldman Sachs: It has indeed been a long time since the adjustment, but U.S. stocks are not expensive
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the last time the S&P 500 index fell by more than 2% in a single day was back in December 2022. Since then, the overall U.S. stock market has been on an upward trend for 376 days. Furthermore, the U.S. stock market is currently not in a state of 'overvaluation', with the price-to-earnings ratio of the top ten market cap stocks in the S&P 500 at around 30 times, compared to about 47 times during the peak of the 2000 Internet bubble
How long has it been since the US stock market had a decent correction?
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index, along with the Nasdaq index, hit new highs again, and the momentum of the US stock market's continuous rise is unstoppable. The consecutive days of new highs have made people feel that the US stock market may not experience a decent pullback.
Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett pointed out that the last time the S&P 500 index fell by more than 2% in a single day was back in December 2022. Since then, the US stock market has been overall on an upward trend, lasting for 376 days, setting the longest rising time since the post-financial crisis era, even surpassing the 351 trading days until February 2, 2018.
Garrett believes that the current upward trend of the US stock market will continue for a longer period, as Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius previously stated: "The decline in inflation levels and expectations of future rate cuts still support asset prices."
So, is the valuation of the US stock market high?
Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Callahan pointed out that the US stock market is not currently in a 'overvalued' state, as the price-to-earnings ratio of the top ten market cap stocks in the S&P 500 is around 30 times, while during the peak of the 2000 internet bubble, the price-to-earnings ratio of the top ten stocks was around 47 times. Excluding the top ten stocks, the overall price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index is only 18 times. Therefore, as long as the US stock market continues its upward trend, it still has the potential to rise further.
