Non-farm payrolls plummet, interest rate cut expectations, US bonds plunge, metals sharply decline, US stocks ease off intraday losses, NVIDIA soars 10% for the week, while GameStop plunges nearly 40%

The heavyweight US non-farm payroll report released on Friday showed that both employment and wage growth were stronger than expected: the US non-farm payrolls added 272,000 in May, exceeding the consensus expectation by 92,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 4.1% year-on-year, not stabilizing as expected at April's 3.9%, accelerating by 0.4% more than expected on a month-on-month basis. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly did not stabilize in April, rising to 4.0% for the first time in over two years.

Commentators noted that this is an unfriendly report for monetary easing, as the strong labor market it reflects could lead to stubborn upward pressure on inflation and reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts. Therefore, the Fed may maintain high rates unchanged in the coming months. Former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian commented that the report closed the door on a rate cut in July.

The disappointing employment report dampened expectations of rate cuts later this year that had been reignited earlier this week. Prior to the report's release, derivative contract pricing fully anticipated a rate cut in November. After the report was released, traders estimated the probability of a rate cut in November to be around 80%, and the total expected rate cut within the year decreased from 47 basis points before the report to around 37 basis points.

Following the release of the non-farm payroll report on Friday, the market's expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year decreased to around 37 basis points, with less than 80 basis points expected next year.

After the employment report was released, US Treasury prices plunged, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury and the more rate-sensitive 2-year US Treasury both rising by over 10 basis points intraday. The US dollar index, which had approached its lowest level in two months earlier in the day, surged straight up, reaching a high point in over a week. US stocks opened lower, while precious metals gold, silver, and copper, along with industrial metals, all accelerated their sharp declines. Both New York gold futures and spot gold fell by over 3% intraday, marking the largest drop in over two years, with silver futures falling by over 6% and copper futures falling by over 4%.

However, the downward trend in US stocks eased during the trading session. Seven tech giants, including Nvidia, which had initially fallen by over 2%, all turned positive intraday. Apple, the only one to close higher, rose by over 1% after being exposed to multiple AI features in iOS 18 ahead of next Monday's WWDC global developer conference focusing on AI. Nvidia saw a double-digit surge throughout the week, helping US stock indexes rebound across the board from last week's decline. Meanwhile, GameStop, which disclosed a potential sale of up to 75 million shares, plummeted by over 40% intraday, erasing most of the gains seen after news of retail investor "leader" Keith Gill resuming YouTube live streaming after three years, with the decline remaining even after Gill went live Compared to metals, international crude oil has limited downward momentum among commodities, with multiple intraday rebounds. Expectations of a Fed rate cut have impacted the outlook for oil demand, while data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes shows that this week the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US has dropped to a near two-and-a-half-year low. Additionally, on Thursday, the Saudi energy minister hinted that the production agreement reached by OPEC+ last weekend may be adjusted or the production increase plan may be revoked, partially offsetting the downward pressure on oil prices. Crude oil continued to decline throughout the week, mainly due to the OPEC+ agreement indicating that Saudi Arabia and eight other countries will gradually phase out voluntary production cuts starting from October, with oil prices plummeting on the first trading day after the agreement was announced this Monday. Gold and other metals also experienced declines this week. In addition to concerns about the rate cut triggered by the employment report, some commentators pointed out that China's gold reserves stopped rising for the first time in 18 months, which was also bearish news for gold on Friday.

The three major US stock indices all saw intraday rebounds, with NVIDIA failing to rebound and experiencing two consecutive declines. Following the live broadcast by the "big brother" of the gaming platform GameStop, the decline continued to expand.

The three major US stock indices opened lower but saw intraday rebounds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially fell more than 130 points, down over 0.3%, but turned higher about half an hour after the opening and maintained its upward trend. In the early session, it rose nearly 220 points, up nearly 0.6%, from the daily low, but turned lower at midday. The S&P 500 Index initially fell by 0.4%, but erased the decline less than an hour after the opening, while the Nasdaq Composite Index initially fell by nearly 0.5%, but turned higher over an hour after the opening, reaching daily highs at midday, with both the S&P and Nasdaq rising.

Towards the end of the session, all three major indices fell, ending the day with collective declines. The S&P fell by 0.11% to 5346.99 points, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.23% to 17133.13 points, both continuing to move away from the record highs set on Wednesday. The Dow, which had risen for three consecutive days until May 24th, closed at a high, fell by 87.18 points, down 0.22%, to 38798.99 points.

The value stock-dominated small-cap Russell 2000 fell by 1.12%, declining for two consecutive days and underperforming the broader market, hitting a new low since the closing on May 2nd, which was set on Tuesday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.11%, while the related ETF Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) fell by 0.09%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, fell by 0.03%. After hitting record highs for three consecutive days, both indices fell for two consecutive days, with the latter rising by 3.78% this week.

The three major US stock indices closed slightly lower on Friday, with small-cap indices falling by over 1% and underperforming the broader market for two days.

This week, the major US stock indices collectively rebounded, with the S&P up by 1.32%, the Nasdaq up by 2.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by 2.5%, marking the sixth consecutive week of gains in the past seven weeks; The Dow, which fell for two consecutive weeks, rose by 0.29%. While the Russell 2000, which saw a slight increase last week, fell by 2.11%.

This week, the three major US stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq performing the best, while small-cap indexes fell by over 2%.

Among the Dow components, healthcare giant UnitedHealth fell by over 2% on Friday, leading the decline, while Walmart fell by nearly 2%, Home Depot and McDonald's fell by over 1%; on the other hand, 3M rose by over 2%, Travelers, Apple, JP Morgan, IBM, and Intel all rose by over 1%. Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only four closed higher on Friday, with finance up nearly 0.4%, IT where Apple is located up 0.2%, healthcare and industry up 0.1%, while seven sectors closed lower, with real estate and utilities hit by high interest rates falling by nearly 0.9% and 1.1% respectively, materials dragged down by a sharp drop in metals falling by about 1%.

This week, six sectors rose, with IT up over 3.8%, healthcare up nearly 2%, communication services up over 1.7%, non-essential consumer goods up 1.5%, essential consumer goods up nearly 0.5%; among the four sectors that fell, utilities fell by nearly 4%, energy fell by nearly 3.5%, materials fell by 2%, industry fell by nearly 1%, finance fell by nearly 0.5%, and real estate fell by over 0.2%.

Including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla, the tech giants of the "Big Seven Sisters" all saw intraday gains at one point, but most closed lower. Tesla, which rose for two consecutive days, initially fell by 1.1% in the session, turned up by nearly 0.8% in the morning session, then turned down in the afternoon session, falling by 1.3% at one point, closing down by nearly 0.3%, with a cumulative decline of over 0.3% this week, marking a slight decline for two consecutive weeks.

Among the six major tech stocks of FAANMG, Microsoft, which rose for three consecutive days to its high on May 29th, turned up in the session after falling by 0.4%, still closing down by nearly 0.3%; Alphabet, which rose for five consecutive days to its high on May 21st, saw multiple intraday declines, closing down by nearly 1.4%; Amazon, which rose for three consecutive days to its high on May 15th, initially fell by nearly 0.9% before turning up by 0.7% in the session, closing down by nearly 0.4%; Meta turned up in the session, rose by 1% in the afternoon session, then turned down at the end of the session, closing down by nearly 0.2%, after rebounding on Wednesday to its high since April 23rd before falling for two consecutive days; Netflix initially turned down in the session, closing down by nearly 1.1%, continuing to fall from the high of nearly 3% set a week ago on Wednesday; while Apple initially turned down in the session, closing up by over 1.2%, rebounding after ending an eight-day winning streak on Thursday to its closing high since December 19, 2023.

Most of these six tech stocks rose this week, with Meta up nearly 5.5%, Amazon up over 4%, Apple and Microsoft up over 2%, Alphabet up over 1%, while Netflix fell by less than 0.1% Chip stocks fluctuated in the intraday trading session, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX initially falling by nearly 0.7%. They rebounded during the morning and midday sessions, but closed down by about 0.3%, after rebounding on Wednesday and falling for two consecutive days. They rose by 3.2% and nearly 2.6% respectively this week. Among chip stocks, Nvidia fell by nearly 2.5% in the morning session, then slightly rebounded at midday, ultimately closing down by less than 0.1%. It continued to move away from the record high set on Wednesday for the third consecutive day, but still rose by 10.3% this week. At the close, Semtech (SMTC), which announced the departure of its CEO, fell by 17.9%, while Intel and TSMC's US stocks rose by over 1%. AMD and Micron Technology rose by nearly 0.7%, and Broadcom rose by nearly 0.4%.

Including Nvidia, the seven tech giants overall rose this week, rebounding after last week's decline. This week marks the sixth week of gains in the past seven weeks, with the largest increase in seven weeks.

Most AI concept stocks fell. The AI and robotics ETF Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) closed with SoundHound.ai (SOUN) falling by nearly 4%, Dell (DELL) by 3%, Palantir (PLTR) by 2%, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Astera Labs (ALAB) by over 1%, while BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose by 5.9%, Oracle (ORCL) by nearly 2%, and C3.ai (AI) by 0.2%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks overall fell, underperforming the broader market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) opened lower and continued to decline, falling by nearly 2% at midday and closing down by over 1.7%. It fell for two consecutive days, hitting a new low since May 1st, with a cumulative decline of over 1.6% this week. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ both fell by about 2.9%. Among new energy vehicle companies, XPeng Motors closed down by over 2.5%, Nio and ZEEKR fell by over 1%, while Li Auto rose by over 1%. Among other individual stocks, Daqo New Energy and Bilibili fell by over 5%, JA Solar fell by over 4%, Tencent Music fell by over 3%, Alibaba fell by 2%, Baidu fell by nearly 2%, JD.com fell by over 1%, while Pinduoduo was slightly up and NetEase closed flat.

In stocks with significant volatility, GameStop (GME), which rose by 47.5% on Thursday, opened lower by 19%. It briefly rose by 3.1% in the morning session before falling by over 30% at one point. After Keith Gill's live broadcast in the midday session, the decline widened, reaching nearly 44%. Ski resort operator Vail Resorts (MTN), which reported lower-than-expected earnings and revenue for the third quarter, closed down by 10.3%. Despite better-than-expected performance in the first quarter, electronic signature company DocuSign (DOCU) still closed down by 4.7%, while Planet Labs (PL), which reported lower-than-expected losses and higher-than-expected revenue in the first quarter, rose by about 11% After its blood disease treatment drug Rytelo was approved by the US regulatory agency FDA earlier than analysts' expectations, biopharmaceutical company Geron (GERN) saw an increase of about 18%.

Following the US jobs report, the pan-European stock indices, which had risen for two consecutive days, maintained a downward trend. The STOXX 600 index in Europe fell from the high point reached on Thursday, surpassing the closing high of May 15. The stock indices of the four major eurozone economies and the UK, which had risen for two consecutive days, overall fell on Friday.

In the various sectors of the STOXX 600, the real estate sector, sensitive to interest rates, fell by nearly 3%, with German-listed Vonovia, downgraded by Morgan Stanley, plummeting by 7.2%. The healthcare sector rose by nearly 0.5%, with Novo Nordisk, the largest pharmaceutical company in Europe listed in Denmark, rising by 1.1%. Both Novo Nordisk and the Danish stock index continued to reach new historical highs. The technology sector rose by nearly 0.4%, with ASML, the largest technology stock listed in the Netherlands, rising by nearly 0.2%, setting new historical highs for three consecutive days along with the Dutch stock index.

This week, the STOXX 600 index rose by about 1%, rebounding after two weeks of decline. Most national stock indices rose, with the German and French stock indices, which had fallen for three consecutive weeks, and the Italian stock index, which had surged last week, rebounding. The Spanish stock index rose for two consecutive weeks, while the UK stock index fell for four consecutive weeks.

In terms of sectors, the technology sector, which fell by nearly 3.5% last week, rebounded strongly this week, leading with a cumulative increase of over 6%. ASML surged by 10.1% throughout the week, and the healthcare sector rose by over 3%, with Novo Nordisk up by 6.1%. On the other hand, the resource sector, dragged down by the cumulative decline of commodities such as crude oil, led the decline. The basic resources sector, which includes oil, gas, and mining stocks, fell by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively, while the real estate sector fell by 1.8% for the week due to a sharp drop on Friday.

After the jobs report, US Treasury yields rose by more than 10 basis points, but the ten-year yield fell throughout the week.

The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury bond hit a daily low before the non-farm jobs report was released, then quickly rose above 4.40%. At the beginning of the stock market session, it briefly rose above 4.43%, increasing by nearly 15 basis points during the day, moving away from the low of 4.28% set on Thursday and the low since April 1, which had been broken for two consecutive days. After the stock market opened, the increase narrowed slightly, remaining above 4.40%, reaching around 4.43% by the end of the bond market session, with an increase of over 14 basis points during the day. After falling for five consecutive days, it rose for two consecutive days, with a cumulative decrease of about 7 basis points for the week, before falling after rising for two weeks.

While the NASDAQ rose this week, the price of the 10-year US Treasury bond fell, leading to an increase in yield The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, hit a daily low in the Asian market early session, quickly rising above 4.80% after the employment report. The US stock market expanded its gains at midday, rising above 4.88% in the afternoon session, far from the low of 4.72% breached on Thursday and continuously refreshing the low since the April US CPI announcement the next day on May 16, reaching around 4.89% by the end of the bond market session. It rose by about 17 basis points during the day after closing roughly flat on Thursday, marking the first climb in the past eight trading days. Due to the rise on Friday, the yield accumulated an increase of about 2 basis points for the week, rebounding after falling last week.

Overall, US Treasury yields of various maturities declined this week, with long-term bond yields leading the decline.

After the employment report, the US Dollar Index surged to a new high in over a week, while Bitcoin fell below the 72,000 mark by over $3,000 during the trading session.

Tracking the ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, the index fluctuated slightly downwards during Friday's session, briefly falling below 104.00 in the early European session, approaching the low since April 9 set on Tuesday. After the US non-farm employment report, it quickly rose, with the US stock market rising above 104.90 in the early session and approaching 104.95 in the afternoon session, hitting a high since May 30, with an intraday increase of over 0.8%.

By the end of the forex market on Friday, the US Dollar Index was above 104.90, rising 0.8% during the day after falling on Thursday, with a weekly increase of about 0.2% following last week's decline. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the dollar against ten other currencies, rose by 0.8% during the day, marking a two-day increase and reaching a high since May 1, with a nearly 0.9% increase for the week, marking a two-week increase.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed at a high not seen in a month.

Among non-US currencies, after the US employment report, the euro against the dollar and the pound against the dollar both fell sharply. The euro fell below 1.0800 in the US session, hitting a low since May 30, with a 0.8% intraday decline. The pound fell below 1.2720 in the early US session, hitting a low since Monday, with a nearly 0.6% intraday decline. The yen, which rebounded on Thursday, turned lower during the trading session, with the dollar against the yen quickly rising after the US employment report, rising above 157.00 in the early US session, returning to the level of Monday's session, moving away from the low since May 16 set on Tuesday at 154.60 to 154.55, with an intraday increase of over 0.9%.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) against the US dollar hit a daily high of 7.2474 before the US employment report was released, but fell after the report, hitting a daily low of 7.2654 in the early US session, dropping 180 points from the high and failing to approach the intraday high since May 21 created after rising above 7.24 on Tuesday At 4:59 on June 8th Beijing time, the offshore RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.2631 yuan, down 38 points from the New York closing on Thursday, with a slight cumulative decline of 1 point this week, failing to reverse the downward trend from last week.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $71,900 during the European stock market session, hitting a high not seen since May 20th. After the release of the US employment report, it fluctuated downwards, with US stocks accelerating their decline during the trading session. At midday, it fell below $70,000 and briefly dropped to around $68,500, down over $3,000 from the daily high, a nearly 5% drop. By the US stock market close, it was slightly above $69,000, down nearly 2% in the past 24 hours but up over 2% in the past seven days. Ethereum (ETH), the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization after Bitcoin, fell below $3,620 during the US stock market midday session, with some platforms testing below $3,600, hitting a low not seen since May 21st. It dropped by around 6% from the intraday high during the European session and was below $3,680 by the US stock market close, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours and over 2% in the past seven days.

Bitcoin briefly dropped over $3,000 after testing above $72,000, then found support around $69,000.

London zinc down nearly 5%, LME copper down over 4%, gold hits largest drop in over two years, silver down over 6%

London base metal futures fell on Friday after rebounding on Thursday, with most closing down by at least 2%. Leading the decline, London zinc fell by over 4.9%, marking the largest drop since October 2022 and hitting a new low since early April, with zinc, nickel, and tin all falling for the sixth consecutive trading day. London copper fell by 3.8%, just recovering the $10,000 mark on Thursday but closing below $9,800, hitting a low not seen since late April. London nickel fell by 2.7% to a low not seen since mid-April. London aluminum hit a low not seen since mid-May. London tin retraced nearly 3% of its gains from Thursday, approaching the low set in early May on Wednesday.

Due to the decline on Friday, base metals collectively fell this week. London nickel fell by about 8.5%, London zinc by over 6.8%, and London tin by 4.8%, all falling for three consecutive weeks. London copper and London aluminum fell by nearly 2.8%, falling for three and two weeks respectively, while London lead fell by over 3%, falling for two weeks in a row.

After rising for two days, New York copper futures fell sharply, dropping below $4.4470 during the trading session, down nearly 5%. The COMEX July copper futures closed down by nearly 4.2% at $4.4835 per pound, hitting a low not seen since April 24th, with a cumulative decline of nearly 2.6% this week, falling for three consecutive weeks.

Following the US employment report, gold accelerated its decline. By the end of the US stock market session, spot gold fell below $2,290, hitting a low not seen in a month, with a drop of over 3.7% during the day, marking the largest intraday drop since March 2022. After the US stock market close, New York gold futures approached $2,304, down by about 3.6% during the day Spot gold fell more than 3% to a one-month low during the trading session.

As the US stock market approached midday, COMEX August gold futures, which had risen for two consecutive days to a two-week high since May 22nd, closed down nearly 2.8%, marking the largest closing decline for the main contract since April 22, 2022, at $2325 per ounce. This refreshed the closing low since May 8th, with a weekly decline of nearly 0.9% after falling back this week following a rebound last week.

After the US stock market closed, New York silver hit a daily low of $29.22, dropping more than 6.8% intraday. By the time the US stock market closed at midday, COMEX July silver futures fell more than 6.1% to $29.44 per ounce, refreshing the closing low since May 14th. This week, it has fallen nearly 3.9%, marking a third consecutive weekly decline.

Crude oil slightly turned lower, marking a third consecutive weekly decline, while US natural gas rebounded nearly 13% for the week.

International crude oil futures fluctuated several times on Friday. During the early European session, US WTI crude oil approached $75.20, dropping nearly 0.5% intraday, while Brent crude approached $79.30, dropping nearly 0.7%. In the early US stock market session, US oil rose above $76.20, up more than 0.9% intraday, and Brent oil approached $80.40, up more than 0.6%. However, it subsequently turned lower multiple times.

Ultimately, crude oil, which rebounded for two consecutive days, closed slightly lower, failing to continue to move away from the closing low since early February set during a five-day decline on Tuesday. WTI July crude oil futures fell by $0.02, a decrease of over 0.02%, to $75.53 per barrel; Brent August crude oil futures fell by $0.25, a decrease of over 0.31%, to $79.62 per barrel.

This week, US oil fell by about 1.9%, while Brent oil fell by over 1.8%, both marking a third consecutive weekly decline, with Brent oil experiencing its fifth week of decline in the last six weeks. Since the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict, US oil has fallen for the 20th week, while Brent oil has fallen for the 17th week. The main reason for the decline in oil prices this week was the sharp drop on Monday, when it fell by over 3%, marking the largest daily decline since Saudi Arabia unexpectedly cut its official crude oil selling price to Asia on January 8th.

US WTI crude oil has fallen for the third consecutive week this week, but has rebounded since Wednesday, narrowing some of the declines within the week.

US gasoline and natural gas futures showed mixed movements. After three consecutive days of rebound following a drop to a low not seen in over two months on Monday, NYMEX July gasoline futures fell by over 0.6% to $2.3826 per gallon, marking a weekly decline of about 1.4% and a third consecutive weekly decline. NYMEX July natural gas futures rose by 3.44% to $2.9180 per million British thermal units, marking a third consecutive day of increase and refreshing the high since May 23rd. After two weeks of decline, it has risen by about 12.8% for the week