Tech giants seek to "de-NVIDIA", JP Morgan says these two US stocks benefit the most
Broadcom and Marvell Tech are expected to dominate the rapidly growing high-end custom chip market, with Broadcom holding a 60% market share. Morgan Stanley stated that generative AI is driving the growth of the high-end ASIC market, and predicts that the market size will reach $20 to $30 billion. Broadcom is collaborating with Alphabet to develop the next generation TPU v7, which is expected to bring in substantial revenue for Broadcom. Large companies such as Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are launching custom chip projects to reduce reliance on companies like NVIDIA. Broadcom and Marvell Tech will benefit from this trend
According to Zhitong Finance, JP Morgan stated on Tuesday that Broadcom (AVGO.US) and Marvell Tech (MRVL.US) should "dominate" the rapidly growing high-end custom chip market. Morgan Stanley currently predicts that the market size of high-end Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC) will reach $20 billion to $30 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $20 billion to $25 billion, and will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 20%, mainly due to generative artificial intelligence.
JP Morgan analyst Harlan Sur wrote in an investor report: "Custom ASICs are a compelling alternative to compute accelerators compared to off-the-shelf commercial solutions (NVIDIA H100/B200), as cloud/hyperscale giants (Google, Meta/Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.) continue to seek more differentiation, better performance, lower power consumption, and lower overall silicon costs."
Sur believes that Broadcom is collaborating with Google (GOOGL.US) to develop the next generation TPU v7, which will ensure the partnership between the two companies and bring revenue to Broadcom in 2026 and 2027. Google unveiled the sixth-generation Tensor Processing Unit chip at last month's developer conference.
Major hyperscale manufacturers including Google, Meta Platforms (META.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US) have all announced their custom chip projects, in part to reduce dependence on companies like NVIDIA (NVDA.US). Therefore, JP Morgan believes that Broadcom and Marvell Tech will benefit from this trend, with Broadcom holding about 60% of the custom ASIC market and Marvell holding 15%.
The analyst wrote: "For Broadcom, we believe that the acceleration of Google orders (Broadcom/Google jointly designed the last 6 generations of Google TPU series AI processors), as well as the opportunity for Meta to become a multi-billion dollar opportunity in the next two years - Meta will build its own computing, networking, and storage architecture to support its next-generation AI computing infrastructure, Broadcom's team will bring in over $11 billion in revenue for AI this year (Google/Meta AI ASIC + AI network)."
The analyst added that as Marvell Tech collaborates with Amazon to develop the 5-nanometer Tranium chip and with Google to develop the 5-nanometer Axion ARM CPU chip, the company's AI revenue in ASIC and networking fields may be between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion this year, and may be between $2.8 billion and $3 billion next year. It is believed that Marvell Tech is also working with Amazon to develop the Inferentia chip and with Microsoft to develop the Maia chip