UBS: Gold "two steps forward, one step back", market fundamentals very strong

Gold prices have taken a roller coaster ride, falling nearly 5% since hitting a historical high of $2450 per ounce earlier this week.

However, UBS believes that the pullback in gold prices may be a prelude to a stronger rebound. This pullback is unlikely to deter investors, and any further pullback is expected to be seen as an opportunity to build positions.

As for the reasons behind the decline in gold prices, UBS strategist Joni Teves pointed out in a report released on Friday that this is mainly due to the market reassessing its expectations of the Federal Reserve after the release of the May FOMC meeting minutes. Stronger-than-expected US economic data has also put pressure on gold prices.

Teves wrote:

Overall, given recent macroeconomic factors, the reaction of gold post-new highs was largely expected, triggering profit-taking.

Teves believes that the bullish view on gold by investors remains deeply entrenched, as evidenced by the recent "two steps forward, one step back" trend in gold prices. Investors' strong bullish stance on gold is mainly based on several factors:

The high likelihood of Fed rate cuts, despite uncertainty about the timing and extent of the cuts;

Gold remains a strong asset for hedging macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks;

Continued purchases by central banks and stable demand in key physical markets provide support for gold prices.

Furthermore, the recent stronger performance of silver not only reflects the current supply-demand tightness in silver but also reflects investors' strong belief in the bullish outlook for gold. UBS believes that gold and silver prices are likely to continue to rise in the future, and the pullback in gold prices may be a prelude to a stronger rebound