US Stock Market Preview | Pinduoduo Soars 9% in Pre-market Trading, Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Incoming

1. Before the U.S. stock market opened on Wednesday, May 22, the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. As of the time of publication, the Dow Jones futures fell by 0.12%, the S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.09%, and the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.04%.

1. As of the time of publication, the German DAX index fell by 0.29%, the UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.40%, the French CAC40 index fell by 0.63%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.28%.

1. As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil fell by 0.58% to $78.20 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.53% to $82.44 per barrel.

Market News

Wall Street Bullish on U.S. Stocks! Morgan Stanley "From Short to Long", JP Morgan Chase "Remains Short". After one of Wall Street's well-known short sellers, Morgan Stanley's stock strategist Michael Wilson "surrendered", his colleague, Morgan Stanley's senior investment portfolio manager Andrew Slimmon, believes that the U.S. stock market will break through historical highs. He mentioned that a large amount of cash still waiting to enter the market indicates that investors are "fearful" of the cycle, and the subsequent "FOMO" sentiment will drive hot money inflows. Wilson raised his 12-month target level for the S&P 500 index, expecting the index to rise by 2% by June 2025, compared to his previous prediction of a 15% decline. For other investment banks, the mainstream view remains bullish on U.S. stocks. For example, peers at Bank of America and Wells Fargo predict that the S&P 500 index will further rise to 5400 points and 5535 points by the end of the year, respectively.

Fed Officials Reiterate: More Evidence of Inflation Decline Needed Before Rate Cut. Two Federal Reserve officials reiterated that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, emphasizing the need to remain patient while waiting for more evidence of declining inflation at the Fed. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated at a symposium hosted by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday that she would like to see "a few months of inflation data that looks like it's coming down" before considering a rate cut. Boston Fed President Susan Collins also attended the Atlanta Fed's financial markets conference. She mentioned that she would like to see more evidence that price pressures are moving towards the Fed's 2% target "I think this is a moment that requires patience. I think the data is very complex," Collins said. "It will take longer than I had imagined." Collins does not have voting rights on monetary policy this year.

Goldman Sachs: The US dollar will be more resilient in the anti-inflation battle and may maintain its strength for a longer period. Goldman Sachs believes that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates stable while other countries choose to cut rates, the US dollar may maintain its strength for a longer period. In a report to clients led by Kamakshya Trivedi and Joseph Briggs of the strategy team, they wrote, "If the Federal Reserve remains stable but more jurisdictions decide to implement loose policies domestically instead of waiting for the Federal Reserve, this policy divergence may lead to the US dollar maintaining its strength for a longer period." These analysts believe that Canada, the UK, and the Eurozone will cut rates in June. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar has risen against all G10 countries, with Bloomberg tracking an index of the US dollar's strength rising by nearly 3%.

Bond traders reduce bets on Fed rate cuts, US bond shorts rise again. After the US April CPI data released last Wednesday exceeded expectations, the market was betting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by nearly 50 basis points this year. However, bond traders once again expressed doubts about whether the Federal Reserve would cut rates twice as expected by the market. The swap market currently implies that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by about 40 basis points by the end of this year, with the first rate cut in November. Positioning indicates that with recent increases in bond yields, new short bets have been re-established. At the same time, long positions on US Treasuries have been partially cleared. Traders remain cautious, waiting for more data to confirm that inflation is moving in the right direction, while also waiting for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path from the minutes of the May meeting to be released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday.

Biden plans to release 1 million barrels of gasoline before US Independence Day to lower oil prices. The Biden administration will release 1 million barrels of gasoline from reserves in the US Northeast to lower gas prices before the July 4th Independence Day holiday and the arrival of the summer driving season. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement on Tuesday, "By strategically releasing this reserve between Memorial Day and July 4th, we will ensure ample supply flows to three states (regions) and the Northeast when people need it most." Due to OPEC production cuts and concerns about the wider Middle East conflict sparked by the Israel-Hamas war, supply disruptions have led to rising oil prices, with gasoline futures up 19% this year. The rise in energy prices in April sparked speculation that the Biden administration may tap into strategic oil reserves in Texas and Louisiana before the November presidential election

Individual Stock News

Vipshop (VIPS.US) Q1 Net Profit Increases by 24.6% YoY, GMV Up by 8.0%. Vipshop's total net revenue in Q1 was 27.6 billion RMB, a YoY increase of 0.4%, below market expectations; net profit attributable to company shareholders was 2.3 billion RMB, a 24.6% YoY increase; diluted earnings per ADS were 4.18 RMB, compared to 3.16 RMB in the same period last year. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to company shareholders was 2.6 billion RMB, a 24.8% YoY increase; diluted earnings per ADS were 4.66 RMB, compared to 3.52 RMB in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations. GMV in the first quarter increased by 8.0% YoY, from 48.5 billion RMB to 52.4 billion RMB. Gross profit increased by 10.9% YoY, from 5.9 billion RMB to 6.5 billion RMB. The number of active customers was 43.1 million, compared to 43.7 million in the same period last year. Total orders were 178.5 million, compared to 184.4 million in the same period last year. For the second quarter, Vipshop expects total net revenue to be between 26.5 billion RMB and 27.9 billion RMB, a YoY decrease of approximately 5% to 0%.

YesStyle (YSG.US) Releases Q1 Report: Revenue of 773 Million RMB, Achieving Double Growth in Cosmetics and Skincare. YesStyle achieved revenue growth to 773 million RMB in the first quarter, in line with the company's revenue guidance, continuing its growth trajectory. The skincare business maintained healthy and sustainable growth, achieving revenue of 2.45 billion RMB in Q1 2024, accounting for 31.7% of total revenue. The skincare business has achieved over 30% revenue share for 8 consecutive quarters, optimizing revenue structure. In addition, the cosmetics business continued to enrich its product offerings, with revenue growing by 3.2% compared to the same period last year, returning to a value growth track. Benefiting from deepening strategic transformation, the company's hematopoietic capacity continues to improve. The gross profit margin in the first quarter reached 77.7%, a 3.4 percentage point increase YoY. YesStyle continued to increase R&D investment during the reporting period, solidifying its innovation capabilities.

Pinduoduo (PDD.US) New Quarterly Financial Report: Business Still in Growth Stage, Will Increase Investment to Deepen High-Quality Development. Pinduoduo Group achieved revenue of 86.8 billion RMB in the first quarter, a 131% YoY increase. 2024 is an important year for Pinduoduo Group to deepen its strategy of high-quality development and is also designated as the "Year of Consumer Promotion" by the Ministry of Commerce. Pinduoduo actively responded by launching a series of measures to benefit merchants and the people during festive seasons such as the Chinese New Year, guiding high-quality consumption. By collaborating with quality merchants focusing on "Chinese Brands" to enrich high-quality supply, improving the high-quality ecosystem, and driving performance growth steadily through policy and activity dual-wheel drive.

Target (TGT.US) first-quarter profits fall short of expectations, stock price drops. Target's stock price fell 7.7% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, hitting a three-month low. This decline was due to the well-known discount retailer's first-quarter financial report showing profits below market expectations, mainly due to weak sales of non-essential items. The report showed that Target's first-quarter net income slipped slightly from $9.5 billion or $2.05 per share in the same period last year to $9.42 billion, equivalent to $2.03 per share. This figure fell short of FactSet's expected earnings per share of $2.06. In addition, the company's total revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to $24.53 billion, slightly higher than FactSet's consensus of $24.52 billion. Comparable store sales also declined by 3.7%, in line with expectations. Despite the challenges, Target's gross margin actually improved, rising from 26.3% to 27.7%.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) performance not only affects the trend of technology stocks! It also concerns the "crazy" power stocks this year. NVIDIA, the AI chip leader dubbed "the most important stock on Earth" by Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs, will release its financial results for the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year and outlook for the next quarter early Thursday morning Beijing time, and hold an earnings conference call around 5 a.m. NVIDIA's financial report undoubtedly affects the global technology stock investors' belief in AI, and its financial data and outlook for the next quarter will likely directly determine the short to medium-term momentum of global technology stocks. However, it is worth noting that this time, investors behind the surging power and renewable energy stocks this year will also focus on NVIDIA's financial report. Analysts generally expect NVIDIA's first-quarter total revenue to be around $24.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of over 240%; earnings per share are expected to increase by 418% to $5.60.

Important Economic Data and Event Preview

22:00 Beijing time: U.S. Existing Home Sales Annualized Total (in 10,000s) for April.

22:30 Beijing time: U.S. EIA Natural Gas Inventory Change (in billion cubic feet) for the week ending May 17th, U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change (in thousand barrels) for the week ending May 17th.

21:40 Beijing time: 2025 FOMC Voter and Chicago Fed President Evans deliver opening remarks at an event.

Next day 02:00 Beijing time: Fed releases minutes from monetary policy meeting.

Earnings Preview

Thursday morning: NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Synopsys (SNPS.US), Snowflake (SNOW.US), Agora (API.US)

Thursday pre-market: NetEase (NTES.US), Youdao (DAO.US), KE Holdings (BEKE.US), Bilibili (BILI.US), Weibo (WB.US), 111, Inc. (YI.US)